Phil Watch: Extreme Ways

What better venue to analyze the Peavy trade than through the eyes of Phil.

Let's get started.

Chicago White Sox GM taking calculated gamble on Jake Peavy
Ken Williams could win big if starter comes back strong from ankle injury

Kenny Williams just made the dumbest trade in baseball history or one of the smartest.

Please note that 'dumbest' came first.

And I'm just putting this out there. Let's run this up the flagpole and see who salutes.

Could it end up somewhere in between?

I know I'm talking crazy but...

The health of Jake Peavy will be the deciding factor, and nobody has labeled him the second coming of Mark Prior.

Okay. He's 28. Read that again. He's 28.

The current ankle injury will be a non-issue long-term.

In the past, he has had issues with his elbow. As recently as last year, he missed time with a elbow strain that made some people worry that it was a precursor to the need for Tommy John surgery, but an MRI this year revealed no structural damage.

He has thrown a crapload of sliders in his career with 23% of his total pitches being of the slidey sort in his 2007 Cy Young year. That is a killer on the elbow and probably led directly to the elbow strain. But he's adjusted since the injury, re-discovering his cutter and dramatically upping his curveball rate.

Peavy has a violent delivery that naturally puts strain on the elbow. Yes. But he will compensate mainly because he has such a vast array of pitches to do so. Wait until he starts utilizing his change-up again.

He should be fine with an emphasis on should. At 28 and being one of the top five best pitchers in baseball, you take that risk, especially for what you gave up.

Tons of info out there and Phil decides to focus on a freakin' ankle injury.

So we're going to skip all the ankle talk.

...Only a guy as aggressive -- crazy? -- as Williams would deal for Peavy again after he once had said no to coming to Chicago, as Peavy did when Williams and Peavy agreed on a deal in May.

I will buy anybody reading this a newly-released designer Snuggie (now in leopard, zebra and camel) if you can find one player Kenny traded that amounted to anything (I'm so sick of typing that link).

So...crazy?...no.

Shit's changed since May for Peavy. See. Things happen around the league outside of the Chicago sports bubble. GM Kevin Towers since May has said he's not going to be adding payroll in the next three years, a slew of Padres' front office guys were fired and Peavy got kinda pissed that people said he was afraid to pitch in the American League (he's all gamer-grindy and shit from most reports). That kind of thing will change the formula for any guy.

To give up four quality pitchers -- Clayton Richard, first-rounder Aaron Poreda, Adam Russell and Class A prospect Dexter Carter -- for a guy on the disabled list ... well, that guarantees it will be a historic trade, one way or another.

WHOOOOOOOOAAAAAA!!!!!

Four quality pitchers?

C'mon.

Clayton Richard was bleech until the last two starts. You don't go from bleech to quality Major League starting pitcher in two appearances in my world. He has a ceiling of 'decent' and 'functional', but Major League starter nonetheless. Solid #4. His groundball tendencies could play quite well in Petco, though.

Aaron Poreda showed he was going to be a bit of a project at the Major League level this year. He has the body-type and velocity that warranted his place in the #1 spot of the Sox top 10 prospects in Baseball America before the 2008 season. But his secondary stuff isn't close to being ready. If he develops his slider and change, there is a possibility that Petco Park could be his friend (he's also a groundball pitcher) and he becomes a quality #2 or #3 starter, but his trajectory right now points to being a closer in the long run. I think it's safe to say Richard and Poreda are known quantities and it's something the Sox don't need right now or next year with Peavy.

Programming note: Steve Rosenbloom on the The Score right now is trying to make the point that Jarrod Washburn is a better pitcher because he can pitch right now with the ancillary argument being he won in the World Series seven years ago and Peavy lost his playoff start against the Rockies. When you want real baseball talk, you go to The Score!

Adam Russell is just a guy. A couple of decent seasons as a long reliever is his best ceiling so he doesn't enter the equation.

Dexter Carter is the most interesting chip in the puzzle. He's flat-out dominated the Pioneer (rookie ball) and South Atlantic (low-A) leagues in two seasons, both leagues where no high-upside prospects get sent (in other words, both suck, offensively). In 186 innings in his career, he's struck out a ridiculous 232, allowing only 147 hits and walking 57. The scoop on him is that he has control issues and relies on his fastball too much but there is big upside here. Given all that, he projects as a high-quality bullpen arm by multiple publications but it's going to take years.

This is important to note: No offensive prospects were touched. Neither were Danks or Floyd. And neither was Daniel Hudson, the Sox real #1 pitching prospect right now who is currently 6-0 with 1.79 ERA and an 0.85 WHIP in eight starts at Double-A Birmingham. He's 22, 6'4", 215 and has already developed secondary pitches, particularly an effective slider while possessing a ridiculous 4.89 K/BB rate. For comparison, Tim Lincecum had a 4.52 K/BB rate in the minors.

The majority of Hudson's numbers happened in the lower levels, sure. But by every account, Hudson's the much more polished prospect with the highest ceiling.

So...what do you have? The Sox traded away four guys under control for five years. True.

A closer look at their projected roles see the Sox traded away a #4 starter, two late-inning bullpen arms with possibly big upside (especially in Petco) and a throwaway. That for Jake Peavy, an ace with moderate risk but under control THROUGH HIS PRIME PITCHING YEARS (we'll get to the contract)!

With the White Sox having lost six of their last eight to fall 2 1/2 games behind the Tigers in the American League Central, and 17 games remaining against the AL East beast Yankees, Red Sox and Rays, you would think Williams would have taken Friday afternoon off. But instead he put all his faith into the Mark Buehrle- Paul Konerko- Jermaine Dye good vibes and raised the Tigers' bet with Friday's addition of left-hander Jarrod Washburn, who happens to be healthy.

I'm not saying that Phil is implying that the Sox should have got Washburn or a Washburn type. Let's just ignore the fact that Washburn is a free agent after the season and the Sox would have probably given up something like Richard and Carter for him, lost him after the season and been back to square one in acquiring a front-line starter. But...ya know. He mentioned it. It's part of the whole tapestry.

If any Sox fans are reading this, did you see this team making a realistic run for the World Series before the trade? I think there's a lot to like, especially in the future and anything can happen in the playoffs. I get that.

For this season, though, the rotation coupled with that defense and the on/off offense hasn't exactly inspired dreams of a championship this year. Best hopes were winning a crappy division and hoping against hope that multiple players find a hot streak or the foundation of youth at the same time.

And that's what you do as a fan, of course. I understand.

What does Peavy do to the rotation? Well, I'm going to avoid the "Is Buehrle an ace?" argument because it will just devolve into silliness. Oh, what the hell.

Buehrle IS an ace but not in the list of top 10 aces in the league. If you have two Buehrle-types #1 and #2 in the rotation, then you have something that equals an ace. But the Sox don't.

What Peavy does is knock everyone down the rotation list a notch, making Buehrle the best #2 in the league by far. It takes Danks from a below-average #2 to a freakin' great #3 and Floyd from an average #3 to probably the best #4 in the league.

When you have that, #5 doesn't matter AT ALL! You fill that with junk, castaways and belly lint because you now have that luxury.

For the Padres, Steven Strasburg is the goal. We're two weeks away from the signing deadline and it doesn't look like the Nationals have made any progress with him.

It's a race to the bottom, folks. If Peavy came back, he could have thrown a huge wrench into the works. Now, they have a great chance to beat the Royals in a race to be the second-worst team in the majors. Clear Peavy's salary off the books and he's signed toot-sweet. He's from San Diego, went to San Diego State, Tony Gwynn was his coach, blah, blah, blah.

You almost have to think this fact made Kenny's call made Towers drool.

Williams says the hypothetical playoff matchups motivated him when he considered how the White Sox would match up against the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers or Phillies.

"We're trying to establish that we have a place among the big boys," Williams said. "To do that you have to sometimes step out on a limb."

Mission accomplished. This wouldn't have been much more surprising if the White Sox had traded for Jay Cutler.

But what do you say, Phil? Apparently nothing. Except for a lame Cutler joke.

Williams hopes Peavy will make his White Sox debut around Sept. 1, although no one would complain about a miracle cure that would get him back earlier for the 11-game trip that begins Aug. 24 to Boston, New York, Minnesota and Wrigley Field.

Cripes. A makeup game against the Cubs is part of the equation? This deal warrants mentioning that?

Peavy, of course, is about a lot more than 2009. He's guaranteed $52 million through 2012, with an option for '13.

Phil read his contract numbers!

Here's stuff more relevant.

Coming into the season, the Sox had a little over $98 million committed. With Thome, Contreras, Dotel, Colon and MacDougal off the books after this year along with picking up Dye's option, that's a little over $20 million open.

Peavy makes $15 million next year and that goes up $1 million in each successive year until the big $22 million option in 2013 that has a $4 million buyout. He has a full no-trade for only 2010 and then it devolves into 14 blocked clubs in 2011 and 8 in 2012.

So...in the worst-case scenario, something like injury or ineffectiveness, there are plenty of outs here. But right now, the top four in the Sox rotation cost only around $35 million ($15 M for Peavy, $14 M for Buehrle, $2.75 M for Floyd with the thinking that Danks signs a multi-year deal that's somewhat backloaded and starts at around $3-4 M). Most teams would beg for that.

(Cubs swipe) The guys on the North Side have $45 million locked up for their top three in 2010.

And, for the Sox, it only increases by around $5 million in 2011 and again in 2012. Totally reasonable. With that and the fact that Alexei is locked in cheap and Quentin and Beckham under control through 2012 and 2014 respectively, payroll could/should stay under $100 million for the next three years while still having the best rotation in baseball.

Anyone would like a starting rotation with Peavy, Buehrle, John Danks and Gavin Floyd, assuming all of them -- especially Peavy -- are healthy. Peavy won't like switching his home base from Petco Park to U.S. Cellular Field but Williams isn't worried about him making the transition.

Probably more than any other player in a long time, Peavy is going to be Exhibit A for stat-types who scream about home/road splits and park factor (me included).

Let's do an exercise. Name the player's career road numbers:

Player A: 58-50, 4.00 ERA, 1.298 WHIP, 0.95 hr/9

Player B: 47-37, 3.84 ERA, 1.299 WHIP, 1.23 hr/9

Player A is Buehrle and Player B is Peavy.

We've heard buttloads of people quote the stat that Peavy's road ERA is a full run higher on the road compared to home in his career. Well, when your career home ERA is 2.8 freakin' 3, it's a bit relative, isn't it?

His career road ERA isn't going to be his overall numbers for the Sox. Pitchers throw better at home because it's where they live, it's what they know, it's where they're most comfortable. U.S. Cellular will now be that for Peavy. If healthy, worst case would probably be a half-run more in Chicago compared to Petco. That's still slightly better than Buehrle's home ERA (3.33 vs. 3.58).

And don't underestimate (Phil-ism) the fact that the Sox get to play Kansas City and Cleveland - the two worst teams in the AL for the foreseeable future - 18 times a year. On average, that's seven starts for Peavy.

Programming Note: As I write this, Clayton Richard just left the Padres-Brewers game. He threw 5 2/3 innings of two-hit, one-run ball. Guess the time it takes for a Score caller to mention that like it's relevant.

Update: I woke up at 9:45 on Sunday. It happened at 10:05 on Slap & Tickle on the Score.

Also, while it's a moderately small sample size, Peavy's record against the AL in interleague play is 8-8 with a 3.29 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP while allowing just under one hr/9 in 20 starts. Those numbers are almost identical to Josh Beckett's numbers this year (3.27 ERA, 1.15 WHIP in 21 starts).

In two years, after Peavy has 60 starts in the AL, we're gonna see what home/road splits, park factor, prime years and dollar value mean. Peavy's the poster child for all of them.

Can't. Wait.

"No," Williams said. "Jake Peavy has some of the best stuff in all of baseball. Anybody would be happy to have him."

Even on one good wheel.

(Sigh)

Continuing with Phil's fetish for White Sox prospects, we have this from Phil's Whispers. Ear to the ground, blah, blah, blah:

White Sox GM Ken Williams says people still don't understand the significance of the team's pickup of Tony Pena, and he's right. Given how they're using him mostly in non-stress situations, it's hard to see why they gave up first base prospect Brandon Allen to get him. Allen looks like a regular of the near future for the Diamondbacks, hitting .379 with eight homers in his first 18 games at Triple-A Reno after the deal. ...

Allen's a .263 career minor league hitter with a 26 % strikeout rate (bad) and an 8.5 % walk rate (more bad given his k rate) in 589 games.

But yes, by all means, let's take his performance in 18 games and call him a regular, especially given the fact that his recent promotion to Triple-A is of the Pacific Coast League variety, a league that's notoriously all-hitty/no-pitchy and half the teams play in high-altitude parks (Reno is 4,400 feet above sea level, a home park where he's OPSing 1.349 in those 18 games).

This is the league where Jake Fox was on pace to hit 57 home runs before his call-up and Joe Borchard is hitting .291 and on pace to hit 33 dingers.

Regular in the near future?

It's. All. Relative.

Phil Watch: Oh, Brother

Big Weekend for Phil.

Five, count them, five articles from Phil with the Hall of Fame induction on Sunday and the trade deadline this week.

I can't tell you anything about his HOF article because I fell asleep after the third paragraph.  I challenge you to not do the same.  I think Phil was running out of gas.  

It's hard work, this baseball writing and stuff.  Can you imagine having to write 3,000 words a week that comprises of never having to pick up the phone while taking most of your quotes from MLB.com's beat writers?  It's hard.

Let's get started with Power Rankings For Morons:

1. Yankees (3): Alex Rodriguez is playing with a mission after hip surgery and his steroid revelations. He turns 34 on Monday but is showing he's not too old to learn new tricks, like hitting in the clutch and playing within a team concept. Thirty-one of his 55 RBIs either tied the game or gave the Yankees the lead.

l;KJ['98afwewg8uiovbncjw!!!!  Already crapped my pants.  This is going to be a long one.  

I challenge Phil to show me one instance in A-Rod's career when he did something that was not within a team concept.  

I don't have the energy to get into this 'A-Rod isn't clutch' bullshit.  It's right here.  You do the work.

3. Red Sox (1): Last week's five-game losing streak has unsettled Red Sox Nation, which holds its breath when anyone other than Jon Lester or Josh Beckett is on the mound. The addition of Adam LaRoche has done nothing to spark a lineup that was fourth in the AL in scoring in June but has slipped to 10th in July.

Phil filed this on Saturday morning.  As of Saturday morning, Adam LaRoche hadn't had an at-bat with the Red Sox.  

Adam's a jerk.  His non-playing essence hadn't been anything to 'spark' the Carmines.

8. Rockies (5): Might have grabbed wild-card lead too early. Could be tougher to maintain position than to take it.

Would somebody tell me what the fuckity-fucking fuck that fucking means!!!!!!????

That easily goes directly into the top 10 of the stupidest things Phil has ever written.

I say #6 without checking.

11. Tigers (13): Keep an eye on Justin Verlander. He's made four 120-plus-pitch starts. The Royals' Gil Meche wound up on the disabled list shortly after his third of that length.

(Trying...not...to...make...a...Dusty...Phil...hummer...joke)  Alright, I could be wrong but I've been told on good authority that Verlander and Meche aren't the same person.  The logistics alone of pitching for two different teams under two different names without anyone catching on with be a nightmare.  Imagine when they play each other.  I don't think it could happen.

15. Braves (21): Finally, the run we'd been waiting for. The starting rotation has been the key but don't overlook the contributions from Yunel Escobar, Brain McCann and others.

I love it when Phil tells us to not overlook players ('don't be surprised' is another Phil-ism).  It's the kind of stuff that comes from people who probably did some overlooking themselves in life so they overcompensate by couching it in language that falsely asserts some sense of authority after the fact.  Ya know, like guys who steer a perfectly normal conversation into some subject that just read an article on and then talk about it like they're the freakin' messiah on the subject.

 

19. Astros (18): Traditional second-half climbers, they swept St. Louis last week but still haven't proven their staying power. Expect a move or two before the deadline.

32-20 since May 28.  No staying power?  That's a 100-win pace over a full season. 

And no significant moves will happen.  GM Ed Wade has been on the record numerous times on that.  It's called the internet.  Use it.

Dope.

A prospect of some note was traded from St. Louis this week.  Phil took time out of a three day sobbing fit to write some stuff on it.  

Brett Wallace never played a game for the St. Louis Cardinals. He did get into one at Busch Stadium, however, and he was cheered by St. Louis fans like he was already one of the franchise's greats.

The sports media collectively wet their pants over Brett Wallace when the trade happened.  The formula certainly played itself out quite well.  All the writers caught the Futures Game where Wallace went 0-2 with two walks and heard the announcers blowing him during every at-bat.  Poof!  They know everything they need to know about Brett Wallace.

But...

Wallace, viewed as the future of the franchise since being landed in the first round of the 2007 draft, batted third for the United States team in the Futures Game two weeks ago. He put on a show in batting practice, hitting line drives all around the field before sending some balls in the seats.

I know when I see batting practice, nothing gets me all tingley like seeing line drives off a 70 year-old coach throwing 65 MPH.

Want to know more about Brett Wallace?

He's 6'1", 245 lbs!  God.  Dang!  The BMI indicator puts him into the "obese" category.

More?

His defense is bleech.  One scout went so far to say, "He can hit but he throws like a girl."

So he will being moving from third base in the future when he ascends to the throne of "The Future Of Some Franchise."  

So...in St. Louis...would he have gone to first base?  Well...they have this guy over there that they're quite high on.  Time will tell, though.

Outfield?  245 lbs.  Put him in center because I need to see that.

DH?  Oh, wait.  The NL doesn't have one.  

Where's he playing for St. Louis again?

What?  Keep him around as insurance against a Pujols injury?  Keep that instead of sticking Holliday in left in a year where the division is COMPLETELY wide open?  

Brett Wallace is EXACTLY the kind of guy that you sell high on.

Yes, this was the guy the St. Louis fans had read about -- the one who twice won Triple Crowns in the Pac-10 conference while at Arizona State. And he didn't disappoint them in the game, twice working highly regarded prospects for walks before leaving.

Only 22 and already at Triple-A, the sweet-swinging, heavy-legged Wallace seemed poised for a long and productive career as a Cardinal.

And now he's not there any more.

We have an emerging new disease that the CDC should probably keep an eye on.

It's called the Pablo Sandoval Disease.  Just because "The Heavy-Set One" is overcoming his fatness to hit well and play multiple positions well (including catcher, a position reserved for the fat ones), we now can dismiss girth as a possible negative worth examining. 

Oh, and Wallace wasn't exactly chewing up and spitting out Triple-A pitchers this year.

If Beane values him, you sell that.  The other two prospects are worth mentioning.  Phil only cites their names (Baseball America contributor, everyone). 

Ownership's willingness to spend had been question, but now the Cardinals have added about $8 million to an Opening Day payroll of about $88.5 million.

A $96.5 million budget is now bad in Phil's world...for a team with a new ballpark, a fanbase loyal to a fault, averaging over 40,000 per home game and a healthy ownership situation that's more than willing to spend. 

If the budget ISN'T about $96.5 million, THAT would be a tragedy.   

Rick Ankiel, a disappointment this year, has gone from the middle of the lineup to the front of the bench. La Russa plans to play Holliday in left, Colby Rasmus in center and Ryan Ludwick in left.

This is the kind of stuff that started Phil Watch.

Ankiel, since the Holliday trade, has been the center fielder.  Why?

Tell me which player is which:

Player A:  .259/.309/.441 11 hrs, 34 rbi, 57 ks in 297 at-bats with a 23.4 UZR/150 in 92 games

Player B:  .236/.290/.404 7 hrs, 27 rbi, 57 ks in 250 at-bats with a 16.3 UZR/150 in 77 games

They're nearly identical (Rasmus is Player A).  

Both play great defense, Ankiel has more experience and with Holliday, DeRosa and Lugo now in the lineup, there is no added pressure on either to perform.

It is and will be a straight-out platoon because Rasmus is abysmal against lefties.  He's a rookie and had one good month.  Take out June and he's a .230 hitter this year.  

The risk is that something will go wrong and the Cardinals will lose first their playoff standing and then Holliday (a Scott Boras client) as a free agent. This is a high stakes season in St. Louis, no doubt about it.

Well no shit, Sherlock.  Of course it's a risk.  Thank you, Captain Obvious.

But the play here is getting Holliday back to the NL and putting yourself at the front of the line in the Holliday free agent sweepstakes.

The Cardinals have to address the protection of Pujols in the order.  And the suddenly-terrible 2010 free agent class doesn't have it outside of Bay, which Boston has the inside track on.  Holliday would be looking at the Yankees, Yankees and Yankees without this late-season move to St. Louis.  This puts them in the running.   

A one-two punch of Holliday-Pujols for five years makes them a front-runner in that division every year.  

The Cardinals' payroll commitments for the next three years make them absolutely able to make that happen.

2010:  $50.59 million

2011:  $44.19 million

2012:  $13.94 million

Of course, as an Angels fan, I know first-hand how that crap tends to work out (Screw you, Mark).

In short, what would you have them do, Phil?  It's not "high stakes."  It's what smart clubs do when they have the money and will.

Here's an idea.  Instead of sitting back, gauging the rest of the sports world's reaction to any deal and write something that mimics it to the letter, write something with a fresh, intelligent angle.

I forgot.  We got the fresh part.  It's "The Cubs need to dump Zambrano now."

He just missed the intelligent part.

  

Phil Watch: More Twins Love

Just a couple of juicy bits from Phil's offerings this weekend.

The rest was something akin to a shelf full of tchotchkes.

Like how people didn't know who Carl Crawford was until this year, Chase Utley is serious about the All-Star game and Omar Vizquel owns kangaroos.  

Let's get started.

Don't overlook the Twins as a possible playoff team. They are 13-9 against the six teams in first place at the break. Only the Rays (10-6) had a better record, with no one else more than two games better than .500. ... 

Twins reference #465,992 for Phil.

So...we're dealing with Boston, Detroit, the Angels, Philly, St. Louis and the Dodgers.

Here's a list of the starting pitchers the Twins faced in their 13 wins:

Dustin Moseley (bad)

Darren Oliver (not a starter)

Shane Loux (Triple A pitcher)

Edwin Jackson x 2 (good)

Armando Galarraga (bad this year)

Dontrelle Willis (bad for eternity)

Justin Verlander (struck out 13 in 6 1/3)

Lon Lester (had an ERA of 6.07 at the time) 

Daisuke Matsusaka (real bad this year - second best game he pitched)

Adam Wainwright (good)

Joel Piniero (has been good this year)

Rick Porcello (has a 5.09 ERA since the beginning of June)

Now...should it matter that they got three of those wins in early April against the Angels when they had 28 out of a possible 25 players on the DL?

Or that they got the unbelievable fortune of facing Willis and Matsusaka?

Or that they're 0-7 against the Yankees?

Or taking out Edwin Jackson who, to their credit, they beat up, the top 10 guys in ERA in the AL have a 1.98 ERA against the Twins (yeah, I did the work)?  

Or that in the six games against the Royals, they never faced the AL ERA leader Greinke (Sox faced him three times)?

Does all this matter?  Probably not.  Because it's 22 freakin' games!  And as you see, when you get into the details, there are loads of qualifiers that are entirely relevant to the equation.

The Twins are good.  Nobody's "overlooked" the Twins.  But c'mon.  Gotta go beyond 'record against' if you want to make a salient point.

Aaaaand then there's more masturbation to the Twins' Twinsiness.

Count Twins first baseman Justin Morneau among the majority of players unafraid to ask for help. He chose a clever way to prod GM Bill Smith into trying to add reinforcements, saying the "aggressiveness" of the front office could have an impact on Joe Mauer staying in Minnesota after his contract ends in 2010.

"It's frustrating going out every day and hearing that 'We want to win a World Series' and then not seeing more aggressiveness," Morneau said. "Something like that is going to affect his decision more than the value of the contract. We already have all the money we're ever going to need."

Justin Morneau is unafraid and clever for saying such things.

But, in Phil's world, Ryan Braun committed a sin and 'put a bullseye on his GM's back' for doing the EXACT SAME THING two weeks ago:

2. Quick question: Did Ryan Braun send Doug Melvin a thank-you note when the Brewers GM traded for CC Sabathia last season? Has he patted owner Mark Attanasio on the back, both for Braun’s own eight-year, $45-million contract and the team’s willingness to spend to compete? He should have, especially if he’s going to put a bullseye on his GM’s back, saying the team needs more pitching to compete.

Braun was right when he said that Milwaukee doesn’t have the starting pitching to stay with the Cubs. But he didn’t need to point that out, at least not to Melvin. He’s been trying to improve the Brewers’ shaky rotation but doesn’t have a lot of money to spend. There also are not many pitchers on the market, and the teams that have pitching to trade are looking for a lot in return.

Ryan Braun.  You are not nearly Twinsy enough.  At least not as much as the dreamy Justin Morneau.

Phil's flagship column tells us midseason trades rarely pay off, using Rich Harden as case #1 but mentions no others.  Then, toward the end of the column, mentions three that paid off just last year, including one on the World Series winner but says 'most' didn't.  

That's Phil-tastic!

Phil Watch: Halfway Through, Half-Ass Analysis

You know what I love?

Midseason awards columns.  You know why?

Cuz they always try to carry with them a feeling of Sisyphean relevance.  Writers try to 'Big Picture" it by placing the season into some sort of mythological context...up the hill, down the hill, up the hill...

It's the cautions they give that serve to show just how pointless and merely cute the whole exercise is in the first place.

Phil's no different.  He does it...because everybody else does it.

Let's get started.   

FAST FOOD FOR THOUGHT, HALF-MILE POST EDITION

Why is Phil the only one who capitalizes his Hardball posts?  It's positively Larry King-ish.

1. Time to roll out some mid-season awards.  If only all the categories were as clear as the National League MVP …

NL MVP: Albert Pujols – His run at the Triple Crown is making a flawed St. Louis team dangerous.  Also in the picture: Prince Fielder, Raul Ibanez, Chase Utley and Hanley Ramirez.

No problem wit dat, y'all.

AL MVP: Torii Hunter, Angels – You could put eight or 10 names in a hat and pull one out, as it’s clear the second half will do much to define the eventual voting. Lots of American Leaguers are having good seasons but none truly great seasons. Hunter gets the call because of his Gold Glove fielding as well as run production (.307-17-65) on an Angels team that has been struggling to score runs with Vlad Guerrero no longer an impact guy.  

Struggling to score runs?  Struggling to score...runs?

They 3rd in runs per game in ALL OF BASEBALL!  First in both June and July!

And the fifth-best OPS in the game for the entire year (3rd in June, 1st in July). 

Phil get paid to do this.

Torii Hunter gets real consideration.  Heck, this year he's even making the catches he didn't make last year, stuff that didn't show up in his fielding statistics.

But the Angels' relative success after the abomination that was the early bullpen (something that was well on it's way to being one of the historical worst in the history of baseball) has been the development of Juan Rivera and Kendry Morales.  Rivera is the most productive #5 hitter in the majors (1.111 OPS) and Morales has a .902 OPS in the six slot. 

Also in the picture: Joe Mauer, 

Remember to mop up after yourself, Phil.  Tissues are in the bottom drawer.  Mauer has a spectacular average and a ridiculous on-base percentage.  No question.  

But here's one for you.  Since June 3, a date that breaks Mauer's season roughly in half, he has a total of seven extra-base hits (5 doubles, 2 homers) with 10 RsBI from (mostly) the three spot in the Twins' lineup (133 PAs).  Compare that with before June 3 and you see a guy who was probably out of his gourd, is still seeing the ball well but is back to being an incredibly effective singles hitter who should be batting #2 (and that's where Gardenhire is now putting him).  

So...Placido Polanco.  And he's not really an MVP.  Good player.  Not MVP.

Justin Morneau,

Maybe.  Having a great season.  Team's still a .500 club.

Ichiro Suzuki, 

As an Angels' fan, Ichiro's in consideration because I'm beginning to fear the Mariners more than the Rangers.  They're showing that 2007 Mariners Magic again.  Ichiro's been a big part.

Miguel Cabrera, Evan Longoria, Mark Teixeira,

Sure, sure, sure.  Why not?

Johnny Damon,

Meh.  Plays in a Nintendo lineup in a Nintendo ballpark.

even (no kidding) Ben Zobrist.

Let's put this one in the crockpot for a little longer.  Zobrist has never had double-digit home runs at any level before last year.  He currently projects to have 32 home runs in 2009.  Ben Zobrist will not have 32 home runs and lead the league in OPS in 2009.

...AL CY YOUNG: Zack Greinke, Royals – This is the easiest pick other than Pujols, although you do wonder about his second-half staying power. Those who could catch him: Felix Hernandez, Edwin Jackson, Roy Halladay, Mark Buehrle, Joe Nathan.

Or Phil could look at his gamelogs.  Screw this "second-half staying power" stuff. 

In his last seven starts - since May 31 - he has a 3.88 ERA and, even more disturbingly, a 1.34 WHIP for a 2-3 record, averaging 6 1/2 innings a start and a .785 OPS against. 

In his first ten starts, he had a 0.84 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 8-1 record, 7 1/2 innings a start and a ridiculous and unsustainable .506 OPS against.

There.  Trend found.  Took about five minutes.

...3. The Cubs are going to win the NL Central, despite all their stumbling in the first half.  Their starting pitching is too good for them not to win.  

Phil says so.

But let’s stop and compare the figures of Chicago’s two rotations:

Cubs: 28-26, 3.83, ranked 5th in ERA in the NL.

Sox: 30-29, 4.07, ranked 2nd in ERA in the AL.

Apples and oranges.  Different leagues.  Chasing different teams.

Now, let’s break it down a little bit, looking at the two teams since the second game of the White Sox’s June 8 doubleheader against Detroit, when Jose Contreras returned from his self-imposed minor-league stint.

Since then, White Sox starters are 11-6 with a 2.71 ERA; Cubs starters are 8-9, 3.98.

So...one month makes a season?  

The comparison to the Cubs is only being offered to make this point – if the Cubs are destined to win because of their deep starting rotation, couldn’t starting pitching also carry the White Sox?

Logic 101.  If A=B and B=C then A=C.  

Let's start with the very first assumption.  The Cubs starting pitching will eventually win the division.  This is apparently fact because Phil says so (and before the Dempster toe thingy).

Totally different beasts.  Teams aren't numerical, fixed values so the entire exercise is weird. 

I'll take Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright over Zambrano and Harden everyday of the week.  There.  That's the 1-2 comparison.  A healthy Kyle Lohse and a Joel Piniero with his new four-seamer that's getting groundballs at a great rate over Ted Lilly and Randy Wells/Dempster?  Probably not.  But the Cardinals can spend money right now.  The Cubs can't.

In the least, it's a wash.  Realistically, the Cardinals have the edge as the season wears on as they can move guys around for matchups, add at the deadline and are better at the top.  And if they're not, I don't want to see one more column about the awesomeness of Carpenter and Wainwright ever again.     

The foursome of Contreras (this Contreras, anyway), Buehrle, John Danks and Gavin Floyd could get the Sox back into the playoffs.  I have more respect for the teams the Sox must beat (Detroit and Minnesota) than the NL Central competition but this kind of starting pitching – and the emergence of Beckham – gives the Sox a real chance.

I give them a chance as well.  Just not because of the Cubs starting pitching comparison.  It's because of real baseball feelings based in fact and thought.

5. It’s been a while since I’ve written anything about Chris Young – the last time being when the Arizona Diamondbacks swept the Cubs in the 2007 playoffs.  But White Sox fans have long memories.

They have long memories because Phil mentioned it 486 times since the trade, many times when it was only tenuously connected to the topic at hand.  Keep bringing it up and people tend to remember.  That's how a mind works.

I got a couple e-mails this week chiding me about the .196 batting average being carried by Young, who one reader said was "your boy Chris Young.’’ Young’s career has been in a slide, mostly due to his inability to cut down on strikeouts – a cause for concern that I pointed to when Young was the White Sox’s Double-A center fielder – but it’s hard to see how that’s cause for celebration from anyone.

Bullshit.  Check for yourself.  He might have mentioned it once, way back but curiously never mentioned it again in the subsequent 12,548 times that followed, even as he didn't begin to cut down on his strikeouts.

Nobody's saying Chris Young is a bad person.  Just bad at hitting baseballs. 

He’s a great kid,

Irrelevant.

and he’s played 414 big-league games since Ken Williams sent him to Arizona in the Javier Vazquez trade. 

I have lived some 13,300 days without dying.  

The Diamondbacks thought so much of him that they gave him a five-year, $28-million contract.  

Just because a team throws stupid money at a player doesn't mean he's good.  Bad logic x 2.  See Barry Zito.

And last I looked White Sox fans weren’t thrilled about their three-year association with Vazquez, although I’d say that they undervalued the body of his work because he came up small in big starts.

See.  Phil.  Any snarkiness that comes your way comes from the placement of Young's name in badly-written evaluations of Kenny Williams' general managerness.  You repeatedly propped it up as an example of how short-sighted Kenny was even as all the evidence showed that there hasn't been one prospect Kenny's traded that became anything close to a productive major league baseball player.  In fact, Chris Young is becoming Exhibit A. 

Chris Young = bad at not swinging and missing while also bad at getting on base.  That = bad baseball player.   

Either way, you’ve got to love White Sox fans.  They know that Young is a much better player than Brian Anderson – whom Williams wouldn’t put in the Vazquez trade, leading the Diamondbacks to Young – but at the moment BA is out-hitting Young, even if he’s only batting .237.  So it’s clear that the Sox hoodwinked the D-backs by foisting off Young on them.  Yeah, right.

Much better?  What?  In the last season and a half, Young has an OPS+ of 85...for a guy with a decent amount of power.  That's awful.  It's what Juan Pierre's career OPS+ is.  

And every Sox fan I know can't stand Brian Anderson.

Also, I don't get it.  Phil says Sox fans didn't like Vazquez but Sox fans are also saying the team "hoodwinked" the D-backs?  Which is it?  What are these emails actually saying?

Verdict = made up composite email = Phil covering his own ridiculousness.

Therefore, verdict = Phil covering his own ridiculousness.  

So...par for the course, really.

It's Comin', People

Phil Rogers is most likely in the midst of wetting his crotchular region over Sam Fuld.

Saturday's column usually posts in the late afternoon for the Sunday edition.

I can't wait.

Phil Watch will be firing back up for the second half of the season. I didn't have the heart, energy or sycophantic joy in me to do this Sun-Times-ish piece of poo.

But have faith, kids. Phil gets really stupid as the trade deadline approaches.

Toodles.