Phil Watch: My Stomach Muscles Are Completely Shredded

I read it two hours ago and I haven't stopped throwing up since.

It can't be for real. He didn't say these things.

Let's get started.

Cubs right-hander Rich Harden just what Twins need
There's a good chance they'll part with prospects for chance to catch Tigers

I'm not sure what the game was called, but back in high school, during a study of global politics, we played a decision-making contest of strategies, with the goal being world domination.

I was appointed leader of an imaginary country named Nordo and pretty much made every poor choice possible on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. On Friday, in a desperate situation, I opted for nuclear warfare. The world was destroyed, and there was no winner. Everyone tied for last.

Somehow that comes to mind as I consider the possibility of the Cubs trading Rich Harden to the Minnesota Twins.

Where in the hell is he going with this?

It's not that Harden is nuclear. It's just that he has been the Cubs' best starting pitcher the last two months and that he appears to be exactly what the Twins need -- not just for this season, but maybe the three after it.

Um...okay. I don't know why a Chicago newspaper would discuss in depth the Twins for the 98B%14&th time but I'll go wit ya. Phil's been lobbying for the national baseball writer spot with the Star-Trib for years now. What's one more Twins update in the grand scheme of things.

While the Cubs deal with their own lost season, a performance almost as woeful as mine in that high school classroom, they may be doing to the Chicago baseball landscape what I did to the teams that had played the game the right way. Jim Hendry, by completing a Harden trade before Monday's deadline, will make it tougher for the White Sox to win.

HOLY MOTHER OF SHITTY COCK TERDS!!!!!!

He. Did. Not. Write. That!

Didn't happen. For the sake of my sanity, I need to believe that didn't happen.

Jim Hendry is making moves in order to stick it to the Sox. I need to play in Phil's head. That's a world unlike anything ever imagined by every novelist, filmmaker, musicians and cuckoo for Coco Puffs psychopath that ever existed on this or any other planet.

Wow. Just! Wow!

It's not a done deal that Harden is going to the Twins, although it seems certain he's not coming back to the Cubs. Hendry has set a high asking price for the guy he acquired from Oakland a little more than 13 months ago, reportedly seeking two solid prospects -- perhaps relievers Anthony Slama and Rob Delaney?

But the guess here is that Twins general manager Bill Smith is going to wake up Monday, consider how catchable the Detroit Tigers remain and pay the price.

Phil, grown men don't need deadlines in order to make a rational decision in life, like the mythical pressure of the clock ticking will provide some level of clarity. Smith knows what he's going to do. And how far the Twins are back now compared to tomorrow coupled with the inherent mediocrity that is the Tigers won't change much in 24 hours.

God, I hate it when sportswriters try to paint pictures of a made-up decision-making processes and I especially hate it when they do it badly.

Thanks to the White Sox's continued reliance on Jose Contreras and Freddy Garcia -- where's Daniel Hudson, a young gun who could have been a big help? -- the AL Central is looking like a two-team race. And the Twins have an easier schedule than the Tigers, whom they face seven times in September.

September schedule in order:

Detroit ---------- Minnesota

3 vs. Cleveland --------- 3 vs. White Sox

3 @ Tampa Bay --------- 3 @ Cleveland

3 @ Kansas City --------- 4 @ Toronto

4 vs. Toronto ------------ 3 vs. Oakland

3 vs. Kansas City -------- 3 vs. Cleveland

3 @ Minnesota --------- 3 vs. Detroit

3 @ Cleveland ---------- 3 @ White Sox

3 @ White Sox --------- 3 @ Kansas City

4 vs. Minnesota -------- 4 @ Detroit

3 vs. White Sox -------- 3 vs. Kansas City

So...both teams play the White Sox, Cleveland and Kansas City six times, split evenly home and away.

Both play Toronto four times, Detroit has them at home, Minnesota has them on the road.

The only difference in their schedules are that Detroit has three at Tampa Bay and the Twins have Oakland at home for three.

Easier? Ever so marginally. Oakland's playing .500 ball over the last 30 games and if the Twins make a run. So has Tampa Bay. Detroit can essentially control their own destiny with four at home against Minnesota in the second-to-last series on the year.

Oh yeah, Detroit has 17 at home and 15 on the road. Minnesota is the opposite of that, something that comes close to negating the tiny difference in schedules.

It's not simply 'easier' and it's probably not 'easier,' period. There's nuances here.

...Harden, a Canadian, would be a good choice to front a Twins staff working in cold-weather conditions.

HOLY MOTHER OF POOPY DROPPINGS!!!

Phil just pulled a reverse Dusty!

Remember when Dusty talked about the sun and heat in August not affecting Latin players as much because they were used to it?

Harden wouldn't be pitching in January, Phil. And Minneapolis isn't in Greenland.

...The Twins' biggest challenge this winter is re-signing Mauer, who is eligible for free agency after 2010. He and Morneau have been outspoken about wanting the front office to be more aggressive. Trading for -- and hanging on to -- Harden sends that signal.

Again. Ryan Braun = Asshole for asking. Morneau = Stand-up guy. His butt looks cuter in the the Twins uni.

With Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster and Ted Lilly signed to long-term deals and Randy Wells looking like a fit, Harden is a luxury for the Cubs. But there are probably 28 other places the White Sox would rather see him going than Minnesota.

(glurp) Oooooh, here we go again!!!!

Phil Watch: Technical Wrongs

Gots me sum catchin' up ta do.

So, for this round of Phil Watch, we'll examine the past week's offerings that get to the crux of what Phil Watch is all about.

Sure, Phil typically works off weird premises and draw weirdly stupid conclusions, but, like life, it's the small things that make the man.

Let's get started.

The first one comes from Phil's "Crystal Ball" predictions. We'll crop out the superfluous stuff.

1. The White Sox will seize control of the AL Central in the next three weeks.

Then they will fight like crazy to hold off the Twins and a fading Tigers club...

The Tigers are fading and the Twins are the team the Sox must fight off?

Two notes on Phil context. First, a mere three days later, he ranked the Tigers #8 and the Twins #16 in his Power Rankings For Morons. Second, on the same day, in Phil's Whispers (ear to the ground...) he whispers about the badness on display in Minnesota's rotation. Mostly, I think someone just told Phil that Kevin Slowey is out for the year and hasn't pitched since July 3.

Tony Pena was a bigger addition than most people know...

Now, the Tony Pena for Brandon Allen trade is a good one.

This is Phil ten days ago:

White Sox GM Ken Williams says people still don't understand the significance of the team's pickup of Tony Pena, and he's right. Given how they're using him mostly in non-stress situations, it's hard to see why they gave up first base prospect Brandon Allen to get him. Allen looks like a regular of the near future for the Diamondbacks, hitting .379 with eight homers in his first 18 games at Triple-A Reno after the deal. ...

In August, Brandon Allen is hitting .219. What changed in ten days? I welcome Phil adjusting his opinion as things change but I need a reason. It's only polite.

I picked the White Sox to win the Central at the start of the season -- the Twins would have been a slight favorite if Joe Mauer had not ended the spring out for an undetermined length of time -- so I will stick with them.

The Twins were 11-11 w/o Mauer. The Twins are 43-45 with Mauer.

The 5-2 run on this homestand against the Yankees and Angels shows they can compete against top teams.

Aaaaarrrrghhhh!!!!! It "shows" nothing. The Nationals just swept the Marlins. Oakland just took three of four from the Rangers. It's good that the Sox won games and kept pace. That's all.

2 The Cubs are going to pull away slowly from the Cardinals to win a third straight NL Central title.

The Cardinals have improved with the additions of Matt Holliday, Julio Lugo and Mark DeRosa, but the Cubs are outscoring them. The Cubs are averaging 5.7 runs since the All-Star break; since trading for Holliday, the Cardinals are averaging 4.8 runs.

Oh, boy. The Cubs, to attain such lofty heights, did so playing four against the Nationals, six against the Reds and four against the Astros. That's 14 of the 20 games.

By contrast, since the Holliday trade, the Cardinals have played 12 games (in the context of when Phil wrote this column), seven were against the Phillies and Dodgers.

Cripes! That means nothing? Not all teams are created equal, Phil.

That's a measure of the relative depth of the two lineups -- the Cubs simply have more ways to win games. Consider the second-half OPS of these five Cubs: Aramis Ramirez, 1.087; Derrek Lee, 1.027; Kosuke Fukudome, 1.001; Alfonso Soriano, .993, and Jake Fox, .983.

If Phil can take 20 games and project, I shall take August games and project:

OPS in August:

Aramis Ramirez - .448

Alfonso Soriano - .572

Jake Fox - .594

Given those numbers, the Cubs will lose their next 25 games and finish 4th in the NL Central.

The Cubs are on pace to win 87 games, but a 14-6 run since the All-Star break suggests they're capable of going 33-23 to reach 90 -- or more.

OMG! It's still going! Nice logic!

Personally, I like "or more" the best. The Cubs have played .537 baseball up to this point. Let's add five games to adjust for the "or more." That's 38-18, or a 162-game pace of 110 wins for an entire season.

Phil's such a meatball.

3 The White Sox are going to bring back Jermaine Dye and Jim Thome for next season.

Given their ages (Dye, 36; Thome, 38) the Sox could keep it simple, exercising Dye's $12 million option and signing Thome for one year, at a DH-only, late-career discount. But with the two sluggers on pace to drive in a combined 200 runs this season, it wouldn't hurt to try to sign them to two-year deals at good prices ( Paul Konerko will be eligible for free agency after 2010).

Using the ESPN projection system (which assumes each player will play every game from this point out - hmm...), Thome drives in 108 and Dye drives in 101. Good numbers, but any team contending for the playoffs better damn well have their #3 and #4 hitters (or #5, depending on the lineup) drive in 200 runs combined. That's how you become a playoff contender.

So...it sounds impressive.

But consider the three worst offenses in baseball: Padres, Reds and Mariners and projecting their #3 and #4 hitters:

Padres: Gonzalez and Kouzmanoff - 181

Reds: Votto and Phillips - 195 (Votto missed 30 games this year and Bruce is out for the year)

Mariners: Branyan and Lopez - 193

Sox: Dye and Thome - 209

Now...there are issues with this comparison, sure. But each team represents their two biggest RBI contributors. The difference between the Sox's #3 and #4 hitters and the ones on the worst offense in baseball - the Padres - is exactly one RBI a week. And that's not even getting into actual RBI opportunities, BAw/RISP, etc.

That's not saying Dye and Thome haven't been good/serviceable/nice to have nor is it saying they shouldn't re-sign both (that's an entirely different ball of wax), but "200 combined RBIs" means so very little in the grand scheme of things. And is dumb.

4 Aaron Poreda will not make the White Sox regret trading him...

...They will miss Richard, a winner with the ability to pitch bigger than his stuff, especially in big spots. But Peavy for Richard, Poreda, Carter and Adam Russell was a no-brainer as far as talent.

Again. I ask. What's the difference between now and ten days ago?

Ten days ago, Phil essentially questioned Kenny's sanity.

Also, there's this from last week's PRFM:

15. Twins (17): Adding Orlando Cabrera was a move with history on its side; four of his last five teams have gone to the playoffs, including the Red Sox, Angels and White Sox.

Huh? In that case, the Rockies will win the World Series this year. Don't believe me?

In every year of Marquis' career coming into this year, his teams have made the post-season.

32. Pirates (29): Call the smartest baseball fan you know and ask which player led the major leagues in home runs in July. They won't know. The answer is Pittsburgh's Garrett Jones, a Tinley Park product, who is the first Pirate to lead the majors for a month since Willie Stargell hit 11 in April, 1971. The most amazing thing is Jones didn't get traded.

Okay. I play WAY TOO MUCH fantasy baseball. I get that. But I got into a waiver-claim war with two of the stupidest players in a couple of my fantasy leagues over Garrett Jones. One of them gave me Chipper Jones, Nelson Cruz and Brian Fuentes for Carlos Delgado at the beginning of the season.

That guy knew Garrett Jones was leading the league in homers in July.