Phil Watch: I Don't Know Where To Begin

Anyone ever have a wildly irresponsible friend?

You know, the kind of guy who gets drunk and tries to jump off the roof of the apartment just to see if he can do it without breaking his leg.

And this friend on occasion - say every three years or so - asks to borrow your car to see if he can drive to Midway and back in an hour to, you know, just see if can do it.

And every three years or so you have say, "Hell no!"

He counters with "What's going to happen? You can't predict accidents. You could get into an accident tomorrow!"

And you have to sit him down like he's a five year-old and tell him, "That's the difference, little one. It's my car...and I'm driving. If something happens, it's going to be on me, not because I gave the keys to some dope who's bored and wants to prove how big his dick is."

That's what Phil seems to be missing when ripping into John Danks for passing on the World Baseball Classic today.

Seriously, this is why people don't read newspapers anymore.

Let's get started.

White Sox fans are very proud of John Danks. He declined the chance to play for the U.S. in the World Baseball Classic, saying he wants to make sure he's prepared for the 2009 season.

This is a very popular position for him to take, but it raises a couple of questions:

• Why can't a 23-year-old in great shape make two or three starts in March, working with strict pitch limits and extreme caution, without risking his readiness for the season?

• Why would the U.S. want Danks in the first place?

Let's see. Danks just completed a season where he pitched 40 more innings than he has ever thrown and is coming into a season where the Sox are going to rely on him heavily with the back of the rotation so up in the air.

I know! He should skip the bulk of Spring Training with the Sox and go play in some dippy Bug Selig creation with absolutely no point just because he can. Let's hand the keys to your brand-new car to someone else. Why not?

Phil's first question begs another question. If every player in the "Classic" is going to have to be treated with kid gloves, then why do it? It's not even a real game. It's cutesy bullshit.

Phil's second question begs a "Huh?"

He's a good pitcher and a tough competitor with a great future. Every major-league team would want to have him on its roster. But he has had one strong season in the big leagues. Does that qualify him to represent his country?

Love it! "Represent his country," like it's some Olympian honor where people train their whole lives just for the miniscule chance to compete in something that will most likely define the rest of their lives.

That's what this is NOT!

Who'd a thunk it? Phil has taken a position on the World Baseball Classic that's even more idiotic than anything Rick Telander could offer. It's like Telander on crack, chockablock with dreamy, pie-eyed international wonderfulness.

What about CC Sabathia? Or Brandon Webb? Or at least a half-dozen others, such as Cole Hamels, Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, Derek Lowe, John Lackey and Cliff Lee?

Or Mickey Morandini? Or Lenny Dykstra?

You take any four of those eight guys, you have a serious staff, a real All-Star team, the kind of team that was envisioned when Commissioner Bud Selig and his staffers dreamed up the WBC.

Yes. The kind of ideas that come from dreams. Then you wake up, give it ten minutes and realize that idea was borderline retarded.

But unfortunately, major-league dugouts and front offices are populated by far too many short-sighted, self-interested players and executives.

Yeah. God forbid try to protect your investment. That's just stupid business sense.

Notice that Phil hasn't told us WHY the WBC is remotely a good idea yet?

The second edition of the WBC gets here in March, three years after the inaugural, in which the U.S. went 3-3 and failed to advance to the four-team final round.

That was such a blow to my patriotism. I felt like less of an American that day.

Once again the U.S. has put together a team lacking the bulk of American talent, limiting the possible success of the event before it even begins.

Can this country take another blow to its already diminished status around the world?

Sabathia, Webb and those other six starting pitchers are among the huge group of American stars who didn't submit their names for inclusion on the provisional roster or whose names were pulled back before the roster was released.

Sabathia pitched 40,000 innings last year and just signed a 40 year deal worth 40 bazillion dollars. The Yankees should allow him to run out there on the mother of all short rests for no real reason.

That plan is flawless! This isn't play money, Phil. It's real, like money that can buy stuff.

...The guys who are eager to play, like the Cubs' Derrek Lee and the White Sox's Matt Thornton, deserve credit for getting it.

Derrek Lee and Matt Thornton are better Americans than C.C. Sabathia and Brandon Webb.

Traitors. Somebody call Michelle Bachmann.

The WBC should be a welcome break from the drudgery of spring training. It's surprising that more players don't look at it like this.

My God, Phil. Just have sex for Selig and get it over with.

Phil here alludes to complaints on the part of some players recently that Spring Training is too long, which it probably is.

Congratulations. He just gave reason #10,659 why NOT to extend the preseason with kitschy little 'World Competitions'. To be game-ready (or what is supposed to approximate 'game-ready' for for this crap), position players have to start training two weeks earlier than usual and pitchers would need three. You know...to be stupid-ass "Classic"-ready.

It is supposed to be real games, right? Not time for pitchers to work on specific pitches and hone their location like Spring Training games are, right?

Freakin' great plan.

...Bottom line: Baseball players shouldn't be afraid to play baseball.

Thems fightin' words.

Derrek Lee = Rambo. Webb = Aldrich Ames.

I nominate this column as a top fiver in the Phil anthology, behind recommending the Rays sign Barry Bonds because it would be fun to see him hit in Fenway but ahead of the entire column dedicated to the wonders of Jeremy Affeldt.

Phil was a voluminous little fucker again this Sunday with no mid-week columns.

His second long-form offering discusses the sale of the Cubs to the Ricketts family. It gives nothing in the way of substance outside of recapping the obvious with a few dippy Cub fan '100 year' jokes thrown in.

But here's two nuggets:

If Ricketts wanted, he could find a big role in his organization (president or whatever title you want) for a baseball savant like recently retired general manager Pat Gillick. Or, if he wanted to try something really progressive, Greg Maddux, who figures to get bored playing golf. Those guys would represent the club and help Jim Hendry and his strong front-office staff in setting a vision for the operation.

That way, when Phil achieves immaculate conception and has Greg Maddux's baby, he'll be closer for family time.

President. Greg Maddux. Jus cuz he's all Cubbie and shit.

...(discussing the renovation of Wrigley Field) For this to happen, the Cubs may have to shift a season's worth of games to U.S. Cellular Field and possibly even Milwaukee's Miller Park—and the sooner the better. Why not get the work done in time for the 2014 season, allowing fans to celebrate Wrigley's 100th anniversary in a much-improved park?

The Cubs should rearrange theirs and two other teams' entire schedules because 100 is a round number. It's pretty. Oh, so pretty.

Cub fan to the core. Phil. You are my muse.

Phil Watch: Mishmash Of Mucky Muck

Ever watch a movie and think it was fine enough as the credits rolled? And then you get into the car and realize, "Holy Crap, that movie sucked!"

It comes from being able to step back a bit and see it's suckitude in all it's glory.

We'll call it the Burn After Reading effect.

Phil's column today has it. Boy, does it have it. It's Phil's Whispers. He has his ear to the ground for us, people.

Let's get started.

How committed are the Cubs to Ryan Theriot as their shortstop? There was never even internal discussion about pursuing Michael Young, who the Rangers made available after he balked at moving to third base.

Yes. Ryan Theriot's diminutive wonderfulness is what stopped Hendry from talking about Michael Young. Not the fact that the Cubs are about to be sold and Young has a contract that pays him $16 million each year for the next five years. Yes. Not that. It's Ryan Theriot and all his throwback greatness to the 30s and 40s.

Young and the Rangers appear to have worked out their differences, meaning it's Hank Blalock the Rangers are trying to trade. …Blalock's availability doesn't help the market for Joe Crede, who is among the large group of free agents still unsigned. …

Yes. A team should trade a couple of decent to good minor leaguers for Blalock and pick up his $6.25 million contract for 2009 instead of signing Joe Crede to an incentive-laden one year deal worth $5 million with an option. Yes. That's the way teams should operate. Give up something or somethings for Blalock, a guy who also hasn't played a full season since 2006. Phil = Consistent.

Also unsigned is a large group that was offered arbitration and declined it, including Orlando Cabrera, Ben Sheets, Juan Cruz, Jon Garland, Brandon Lyon and Oliver Perez. Brewers GM Doug Melvin said he considered signing Cruz as his closer but opted for Trevor Hoffman because he didn't want to give up a first-round draft pick. …

Phil. Sweety. Melvin was being nice. If he let it all fly, Melvin would have said that Cruz has been a decent middle reliever over the last two years, has a WHIP that says it's been a bit of a mirage and HAS NEVER CLOSED! Yes. Give up a first round draft pick for that.

Spring training sleeper for the Cubs—center fielder Sam Fuld, who has had a big winter in Venezuela and has leadoff man skills. For the White Sox—third baseman Javier Castillo, a non-roster invitee who hit .288 between Double-A Birmingham and Triple-A Charlotte last season. …

Cripes! That's the 48 bazillionth time he's mentioned Sam freakin' Fuld's "big" winter in the freakin' Venezuelan league. Please tell me how Fuld gets into the lineup to lead off. Please. No answer has been given yet. Cubs outfield: Soriano, Bradley, Fukudome, Johnson, Gathright. And man, if Fuld breaks camp with the Cubs, they're quickly becoming a nugget convention with Theriot, Fontenot and him.

Javier Castillo? A light-hitting third basemen with a career .266 minor league average, doesn't walk and is a little too booty? Fuck Viciedo and Fields. He's is The Answer!

The Brewers are interested in free-agent starter Braden Looper.

Early 2009 nomination for the most irrelevant sentence ever written ever.

And then there's Phil's flagship Sunday column.

...Both Reinsdorf and McCourt keep a close eye on the bottom line. While Reinsdorf took the White Sox's payroll into the nine-digit stratosphere in the honeymoon seasons after the 2005 championship, he and general manager Ken Williams now appear ahead of the curve in watching out for the economic downturn facing baseball and other professional sports.

Nine-digit stratosphere? It was $103 million, good for 4th in baseball...after a World freakin' Championship. Now...I'm thinking that Phil believes that kind of spending is bad given the word choice and the fact that he wrote 4,000 columns in 2008 about the White Sox irresponsible spending. Let's see who this plays out.

And they're not 'ahead of the curve'. Has Phil been watching this offseason? Not one team will enter 2009 with a payroll higher than 2008. Not one. Not even the Yankees.

The White Sox opened 2008 with a payroll of $121.2 million and added to it by trading for Ken Griffey Jr. at the trading deadline. The signing of Bartolo Colon gave them 14 players signed at $83.525 million. Factoring in the arbitration-eligible Bobby Jenks and 10 entry-level players, they will be in the range of $92-94 million when the season opens—and they are still open to trading Jermaine Dye, which could lower that figure.

So that's pretty good...right?

The movement to get younger—creating opportunity for players like Josh Fields, Dayan Viciedo, Chris Getz, Brian Anderson, Jerry Owens and Brent Lillibridge—is allowing the White Sox to cut almost $30 million off the payroll, seemingly without being passed by anyone in the American League Central.

So...really good...right?

The Dodgers' cost-cutting is even worse, as Manny Ramirez can testify. The reality with a situation almost as strange as Ramirez himself is that it now appears the Dodgers never really wanted to re-sign Ramirez. Many around baseball believe general manager Ned Colletti made Ramirez a two-year offer only to save face, with the expectation that somebody would outbid him. But that hasn't happened.

Worse? Probably poor word choice. But...worse?

And so...now we have the Dodgers NOT signing Manny. They're NOT signing him in Phil's world for the reasons given.

If the Dodgers really wanted to keep Ramirez, they would have done it by now. But whispers have gone around for years about McCourt not having the usual financial muscle of Dodgers' owners, and that is being borne out this winter.

So again...there's NOT signing Manny...in Phil's world...for the 12,000 reasons given.

...The Dodgers opened the 2008 season with a payroll of $118.6 million, and added Ramirez, Casey Blake and Greg Maddux in midseason deals. But they since have released Andruw Jones, lost six free agents to other teams (most notably Derek Lowe and Brad Penny) and allowed eight others, including Ramirez, to linger unsigned.

So...they're...cutting...payrolllllll. And no Manny...?

They have only about $52 million committed to nine players, with two of the three biggest contracts belonging to players who haven't helped ( Juan Pierre and Jason Schmidt). They have four arbitration-eligible players, including catcher Russell Martin and closer Jonathan Broxton, and are expected eventually to re-sign Ramirez.

JEBUS H. CHRIST!!!! YOU JUST SAID THEY'RE NOT GOING TO SIGN MANNY!!!!!!!!

While the Sox count on production from inexpensive contributors like Carlos Quentin, Alexei Ramirez, John Danks and Gavin Floyd, the Dodgers have a deeper, more touted core of young players. Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, James Loney and Martin figure to hit together near the middle of the order for years to come.

De-Bat-Able. Matt Kemp looks like a monkey humping a football when he plays the outfield. Loney hasn't developed anything resembling consistent power yet (except against the Cubs in the playoffs, of course. Tee-hee.) and Ethier? Meh. We'll see. They were a .500 team last year in a shit-ass division before trading for Manny.

Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw, James McDonald and Cory Wade similarly anchor the pitching staff (although Billingsley may not be ready to open 2009 because of a November broken leg, when he slipped on ice).

Anchor?

Billingsley = Good. Yes.

Kershaw = Should be decent. Great hook. Had some control issues.

McDonald = Six major league innings. Six.

Wade = Never started a major league game. Never.

And where the hell is Kuroda?

Gee whiz, Phil. Two guys have no major league starting experience, one is coming off an injury and the other is primed to go through growing pains. How is that 'anchoring' anything?

But can you cut your payroll 30 percent and defend a division title? The Dodgers, like the White Sox, hope the answer is yes.

Well...it kind of depending on what that 30 percent is, doesn't it? Just a thought.

Phil Watch: Let's Dispel A Myth

Why not an end-of-the-year Phil? Why Not?

In a way, Phil is a rock in these changing economic times. A strong ship in the storm.

Nobody holds to such a stubborn ethos more than Phil in the Chicago Media since fuckstick left town.

For evidence, check out Phil's Hardball entry where he continues in his efforts to find a move that Kenny Williams might regret. That one involves the Aaron Cunningham for Danny Richar deal.

See, in Phil World, the White Sox would still field a competitive team with Aaron Cunningham in right if Jermaine Dye were traded. Because in Phil World, a win counts more when a team does it with prospects. It was like 1 1/2 wins when the Marlins won a game last year, completely destroying the rest of baseball with a 125-37 record.

That's the Phil ethos.

Speaking of the Phil ethos, another part of it is paying the top free agents gobs of money only makes you a dirty, dirty team. And your wins only count as half a win, meaning the Yankees with the top payroll in baseball last year only went 45-117. See. More Phil-math.

Using this logic, Phil wrote the perfunctory 'You can't buy a World Series' article Sunday.

Let's get started.

Trying to buy way into World Series not best method

Impatience rarely is rewarded in baseball.

Neither is badness. Seems like the same result to me. Both types are not playing in the playoffs with the fire and passion, but tell me more, Dr. Science.

It happens, sure. The World Series the infant franchises in Florida (1997) and Arizona (2001) won come to mind. But there have been a lot more spectacular failures than successes from teams that spend heavily to get themselves to the top.

Well...there's spending stupidly and above your means and then there's just spending. Let's see if a distinction is made.

Think of the White Sox in the Albert Belle-Frank Thomas years...

I know. Those 49 hrs, 152 rsbi, 48 doubles, .328 average, .400 OBP, 200 hits and 113 runs completely drug down the Sox lineup in 1998, one of only two years he played for them. Fucker. Who dare he? Base clogger.

The Dodgers with guys like Kevin Brown and Darren Dreifort...

Brown was 58-32 with a culmulative ERA below 3 in his time with the Dodgers. Asshole. How dare the Dodgers not foresee his injuries as well? They should have been able to predict that.

And wait a minute! Driefort was the Dodgers' first round fucking pick! They stupidly rewarded one of their own. How is that buying anything?

The Mets in the era of Pedro Martinez, Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delgado...

Yeah. Signing the best player in baseball at the time in Carlos Beltran was soooo stupid. He didn't prove his worth enough when he hit a gazillion homeruns in the '04 playoffs. How is that different from the Red Sox 'buying' Manny for $20 million a year? Results? If we could predict results, why play the games?

And Pedro has been paid an average of $12.9 million over the last four years by the Mets. $15 million in the previous four years by the Red Sox. For a big market team, how is $12.9 million for an aging pitcher who was very recently one of the best pitchers in baseball blowing any budget?

Delgado was traded to the Mets for Mike Jacobs, Yusmeiro Petit and Grant Psomas. Who'd that work out?

And unless I'm a moron (entirely possible), how did these three have any effect on the Mets' bullpen sucking balls the last two years?

The Tigers of the last two years, when they added Gary Sheffield, Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to the mix that had won a pennant in 2006.

Speaking of sucking balls, did Gary Sheffield put on a Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson and Justin Verlander mask and take the mound without me hearing about it? All three are homegrown talent who collectively threw up on themselves every time they threw a pitch. Oh, I forgot. Phil-math means they were actually league-average on the Phil Homegrown Prospect Adjustment Scale.

Even the Cubs, who are yet to get a playoff victory from the purchase of Alfonso Soriano, Ted Lilly, Jason Marquis, Kosuke Fukudome and Mark DeRosa.

Even? Even! Isn't this Exhibit A? And check out the details of those contracts. They're a backloaded mess. All that money and not even one win in the playoffs. Isn't that the entire premise of the column?

And BTW, wasn't the Johan Santana trade the bestest of bestest moves for the Mets last year in Phil's mind? The Mets gave up four legitimate prospects AND paid him $23 million a year for the next 45 years. If that's not buyin' somethin', I don't know what is. How does Sabathia compare to Santana? And how does that fit into this equation?

The teams that have sustained success in the last two decades were built around players who blossomed into stars during the process: the Braves of the 1990s; the Yankees when they won four World Series in five years...there's little comparison to the franchise that won with guys like Bernie Williams, Paul O'Neill, Scott Brosius and a young Andy Pettitte.

WWWWWHHHHOOOOAAAAA!!!!

This is where we stop. He just rambles on from here about how Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira have never led their shitty teams to the promised land, making them crappy leaders.

You know, typical vague garbage entirely dismissive of the players around them.

We stop here to dispel a myth perpetuated by the likes of Phil and Phil-like dopes.

In some fantasy world I have not visited yet, the Yankees won four World Series in five years with a roster completely populated with Yankee prospects. It's a pretty world with sprites, fairies and unicorns where every baseball player plays with the grit, fire and passion of a David Eckstein or Reed Johnson.

But getting back to the real world, Bernie Williams, Derek Jeter, Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera were indeed on the Yankee playoff teams that won four in five. Those are facts.

But...the first championship in '96 had...

Tino Martinez? Bought. Signed as a free agent after being traded to the Yankees.

Wade Boggs? Bought. Signed as a free agent.

Paul O'Neill? Bought. Signed as a free agent.

Four of the five pitchers in the rotation: Jimmy Key, David Cone, Dwight Gooden and Kenny Rogers? Bought. All signed as free agents.

John Wetteland? Traded from the Expos because they couldn't afford him and Yankees could.

Darryl Strawberry, Cecil Fielder, Ruben Sierra, Tim Raines, Bob Wickman, Joe Girardi? All guys who were established stars on the downside of their careers, contributed significantly and were signed or traded for because the Yankees did and nobody else could at that level.

Totally forgot about Fielder.

It doesn't get better. 1998 saw Chuck Knoblauch, Chad Curtis, Scott Brosius, David Wells, Hideki Irabu, Orando Hernandez and Mike Stanton added to the previously bought-or-trade-for list of guys.

1999? 2000? Add Roger Clemens to the previous lists.

I don't know what world exists where Jeter, Posada, Pettitte and Rivera could have won 4 in 5 with league-average talent around them, but I want to visit that world.

Because in that world, the Angels have won eight straight World Series.

Phil Watch: He Had Me At Range Factor

Phil bought a book!

Last week, Phil called the 2009 Bill James Handbook recommended reading.

I had to change my underwear as I had crapped my pants in disbelief.

And then he used a cursory glance at the book to say Chone Figgins may be the most overrated player in baseball because he doesn't hit home runs and was only a +7 baserunner in his accompanying article.

Just forget the fact that he fractured two fingers in the second game of the year and followed that up by pulling his hamstring and was out a month. Oh, and then he followed that up with bruising his right elbow in September. All that and he hit ahead of the #2 position in the order that hit a collective .258 behind him, 5th worst in baseball on a team that won the most games in 2008.

Check out what Bill James projects Figgins to do in 2009. Every team would take a player like that. Just look shit up! There. It's out of my system.

So there was no Phil Watch last week because it just would have been a bunch of curse words and name calling. I'm trying to be a better person.

This week's offering makes for a little more cerebral experience.

Let's get started.

White Sox's Jermaine Dye might be moving on

But whether they involve him being on the team is still a question

Anybody understand what the heck that means? Read that again and please tell me because I don't get it. Outside of possibly NORAD, proofreaders are probably most valuable in this world at newspapers, wouldn't you think?

Paging Jermaine Dye, paging Jermaine Dye … Mr. Dye, please cancel your spring-training reservations with the White Sox and hold for your impending reassignment.

Phil wrote the opening in that netherworld between sleep and awake, the only place where shit like that seems funny.

Oh, fuck it. Let's just get to the goods.

...If you were going to have Carlos Quentin on one outfield corner and Dye on the other, as the White Sox did in 2008, why even consider Viciedo in the outfield?

I will speak slow. Just because Alexei Ramirez happened to play right away doesn't mean Viciedo will. Alexei is 26. Viciedo is 19! And apparently out of shape. Just because Kenny may be open (Kenny quotes I omitted) to trying him in the outfield doesn't even touch the realm of meaning he is going to take over right field on Opening Day 2009. And therefore meaning Dye is going to be traded. See, there are more years after next year. It's called long-term for a reason.

Kenny didn't broach the subject. Somebody asked him about the possibility. Possibility, by definition, means it's possible. And not necessarily right now.

Common sense thinking. It works. I promise.

Years ago, when Williams was the Sox's farm director, he and his coaches turned Carlos Lee from a third baseman into a left fielder in little more than a week's time. The guess here is that's the long-term plan for Viciedo, assuming Josh Fields and Wilson Betemit can hold down third.

Paging Phil Rogers...paging Phil Rogers. Your column is about to get stupid. Paging Phil Rogers...

Quentin should be a fielding upgrade in right field over the 34-year-old Dye, whose 2008 range factor of 1.86 ranked 27th among 30 primary right fielders. So this is the right time to trade Dye.

Phil. Go to the glossary of your new book. It's in the back. Range factor is NOT a spectacular judge of an outfield's ability to field his position at or better than the rest of the league.

ZONE RATING IS! It's a stat that evaluates how a player fields his typical defensive zone compared to the rest of the league. It's all comparabley and stuff, therefore more importanter.

Range factor's formula is (put outs + assists/innings played). Now look that over. In short, if your team's pitching staff is loaded with a bunch of flyball pitchers or tends to pitch more away to right-handed batters or a flurry of other factors, your range factor will be skewed by the number of fly balls you caught. It's not adjusted for anything. It just asks if the player caught the balls hit to him.

And Phil has heard of zone rating. We know this here at Phil Watch. He used it to say Miguel Cabrera was a bad third basemen by third basemen-y standards. What the hoo-hoo?

And if he's in that section of the book and wants to use range factor, turn a couple of pages to the leftfielders! Quentin had a 1.83 range factor, .04 points below Dye. And while he's on the left field page, check out Carlos Lee's zone rating. It's .755, dead last in baseball. Lee's play in left field doesn't buttress anything here.

And an aside here. If range factor is important in Phil's world, where's the column discussing Ryan Theriot's dead-last rating for shortstops? Had to get that in. I'm small.

Dye's slow and not very rangey, but in 272 chances in 2008, he had one error. Quentin, by contrast, had seven errors in 240 chances. Both had five assists. Upgrade?

He has averaged 34 home runs and 95 RBIs in his four years with the Sox. That gives him value to many teams: the Dodgers (assuming they don't re-sign Manny Ramirez), Mets, Braves, Angels (if they lose Mark Teixeira), Rays and Reds, to name six teams that are not believed to be on his no-trade list.

Christo fading. Columnists = Analysts. Reporters = Reportage.

Team-by-team:

Dodgers: They'd have to move/would be asked for Kemp or Ethier, something they wouldn't do for a bevy of players with bigger upside than Dye. With Lowe and Penny gone, they're not letting go of any pitching. Oh, and they already have two players with wildly expensive and not very producey-type contracts in Pierre and Jones in the outfield. How does Dye fit?

Mets: Intriguing, part une. The rumors are out there. But the Sox wouldn't do it without getting a centerfielder in return and the Mets are backtracking on the possibility of trading Fernando Martinez. And Jenks would be involved in that one. See, other teams have needs, too.

Braves: Well, they just traded Vazquez to the Braves and got what they wanted from their farm system in return. I suppose it's possible. Not very probable. It would be the definition of a salary dump.

Angels: No. Dye can't play left and that's what they need.

Rays: Intriguing, part deux. Surplus of bullpen arms and the Sox need it.

Reds: Intriguing, part trois. The names are already out there. Bailey for Dye straight up? Maybe not with Bailey's regression last year.

See. Mets, Rays and Reds. I could have saved Phil some time by not typing in stupid.

Williams might not fill his biggest remaining need—a center fielder/leadoff hitter—with a Dye trade, but should get a lot of interesting offers the next two weeks. By moving Dye, who is due $11.5 million in 2009 with an option for '10, he would be gaining flexibility to sign a free agent or two who slips between the cracks, as he did with A.J. Pierzynski and Orlando Hernandez after trading Lee and letting Magglio Ordonez walk after 2004.

He already has that flexibility. His own paper has mentioned the updated payroll numbers after the Vazquez trade about a gazillion times.

This off-season Williams is doing to his lineup what he did to his rotation two years ago—sacrificing expensive, known quantities to collect multiple options with potential staying power. I didn't like it when he traded Freddy Garcia and Brandon McCarthy (and almost Jon Garland), but the development of Gavin Floyd and John Danks made that gamble work.

Phil owns up to his own dippiness. Kind of. Progress.

But that 'almost' on Garland is a bit of a misnomer. He didn't like it. For evidence, he compared the potential effect of losing Jon Garland to the Cubs letting Matt Clement go. Oh, and there was a 'Ghost of Garland' image in the nut graph. Fun.

The latest renovation of the roster is more appealing, even if many executives believe Williams is overrating Flowers, whom they regard as a serious liability behind the plate. Williams did well recouping the kind of talent he sent to Arizona to acquire Vazquez three years ago (center fielder Chris Young was the headliner).

Vazquez was traded for Chris Young, Luis Vizcaino and Orlando Hernandez.

Vizcaino had a perfectly fine, if unspectacular little run pitching in middle relief for three different teams in the three years since. He's now 34 and coming off a 5.28 ERA campaign for Colorado in 2008.

Hernandez is out of baseball and didn't pitch last year because he's 97 years old.

Young...well...since the trade, he had a great rookie year. Since that year, Arizona has decided he is a terrible lead0ff hitter because, you know, he doesn't get on base. .306 OBP in the majors will do that. And that little thing like striking out once in every 3.97 at bats will do it as well. If he was the leadoff hitter for the White Sox, White Sox fans would not want him as a leadoff hitter. He's worse than Soriano in the leadoff spot. By a lot, actually.

Zone rating = average. Range factor = below-average.

Young wasn't just the headliner...he was the only real player in the deal. And even with all that Vazquez was, the Sox got the better of that one, all things considered.

Now! onto Flowers. Many executives don't think Flowers is overrated. Many executives know that Flowers caught full-time for the first time last year. He was a shortstop in high school and switched between catcher and first base in college. They think he's a project defensively, not overrated.

The guy walked 98 freaking times in 413 at-bats last year for a .427 OBP. And he's not and all-or-nothing hitter. 32 doubles in 413 at-bats. Sure, Class A. But he should be on schedule to get to the White Sox right about the time Pierzynski and Konerko's contracts expire. It's a ridiculously good play and the right guy for the situation.

Flowers, Gilmore and Santos Rodriguez are all high-ceiling guys. Brent Lillibridge could be next year's Quentin: a talented player acquired when his value was low after a bad year. It makes you wonder how much Williams will be offered for Dye.

And there you go. Phil spends a bazillion columns lamenting the loss of Fautino de los Santos and barely even mentions that Santos Rodriguez, a guy comparable not only in name but in ceiling, was just acquired. And Rodriguez has the added advantage of not just having Tommy John surgery.

That's our Phil (cue wacky sitcom music)!

Phil Watch: Ah, C'mon! (Times 8,397)

"Mommy. What's a pythagorean win-loss percentage?"

"Well Robby, it's when a baseball idiot pokes his dipstick into a baseball hoo-hoo and, nine months later, a little baseball moron of an idea pops out."

"What?"

"You heard me, you little..."

Let's play a little catch-up. Phil's been a busy little bee over the last week, if being busy means being a dope. Which it does.

So let's just pick the juiciest nuggets over the last week and do that thing where the BRE tries to get all clever and shit and say things that are more funny/accurate/incisive/breathtakingly inappropriate than what Phil writes.

It's what we do.

Let's start with today's offering (in reverse order):

Modern math: According to the Pythagorean standings, the Angels' Mike Scioscia and Houston's Cecil Cooper were the best managers in the majors this season. They had ratings of +12 and +9 respectively.

Wow. Wow! WOW!! I don't know if I've ever seen something so wrong in an inherently wrong way than this. Well, that's not true. Palin DID say her First Amendment rights were violated by the media yesterday.

Pythagorean standings are NOT manager ratings. Repeat. Not. No. They are a pretty simple mathematical equation that takes runs scored and runs against and plugs them into a formula to determine their win-loss record based solely on that.

In other words, it's merely cute and nobody uses it. Sometimes the disparity is pretty shocking and it's interesting to see such a disparity. It can help an argument in an ancillary of an ancillary sense by demonstrating that a team probably was unbelievably lucky with RISP, they had a great bullpen or their rotation was loaded with Zeuses, Apollos and Joes the Plumber.

Arizona last year was a good example. 18 games over in actual wins and four games under in Pythagorean wins.

But let's take the Angels this year. They were well on their way to being the Arizona of this year w/r/t Pythagorean win-loss. On June 9, they were 39-26 and in first place, four games up on Oakland. Their run differential was...ZERO! Oakland's was +46.

What does that mean? Well, if it was relatively late and the Angels were down, say, four runs, it usually meant Scioscia would go with the Chris Bootchecks, Jason Bulgers and Darren O'Days of the world. Who are they? Exactly. The Angels ended the season at +68 and the A's ended at -44.

So anyway. You take the Pythagorean win-loss, compare it to actual win-loss and come up with a number called 'Luck'. So if the P-WL is say 12 games lower than actual win-loss, then it's determined by this simplistic formula that 12 games were won that the numbers say they probably shouldn't have.

In other-other-other words, IT'S NOT A MANAGER'S RATING!!!!!

Managers cannot see the future, which saying 12 games a year determines a manager's proficiency does! This is where certain statistical models get into trouble. Because dopes can wildly misuse them.

It was debunked ten years ago, completely modified and has been tossed to the ash bin of silly baseball logic.

I can only think Phil is using this for some stupid reason.

The worst were the Toronto combination of John Gibbons and Cito Gaston and Atlanta's Bobby Cox, at -7.

Cripes. Poor Cito Gaston. Phil couldn't even give the guys his properly proper props.

When Gibbons was fired on June 20, the Jays were 35-40 with a +9 run differential.

They finished 86-76 and had a +104 run differential.

That's a 51-36 actual record and a 55-32 Pythagorean W-L for Gaston.

So a +4 luck factor for the team under Gaston and a -11 luck factor for the team under Gibbons.

That doesn't mean that the Jays were better because of the presence of Super Gaston. It had more to do with something resembling a healthy rotation and a bullpen that found its legs as the season went on. Oh, also, Vernon Wells and Alex Rios figured out that getting base hits and not striking out makes you a better baseball player. I don't think it took Cito to tell them that.

The rankings show managers decided only one playoff race—the AL Central. Minnesota's Ron Gardenhire was a -1 compared to Ozzie Guillen's zero, and without the difference the Twins would have avoided a one-game playoff.

BREAKING NEWS: Ron Gardenhire singlehandedly 88 games this year. There were no Minnesota Twins players involved. In fact, every game this year was a mirage created by Bud Selig to fool everyone into thinking that baseball is real.

Really? Is Phil thinking through this shit while he's typing it? Pythagorean W-L means nothing! Just a cute tool, people! And it's not Modern Math. It's math used 15 years before baseball stats were seriously evaluated.

Lou Piniella was a -1 after getting a -2 rating in 2007, his first year with the Cubs. Dusty Baker, the manager Piniella replaced, was a +2 in his first year in Cincinnati.

There you go! Based on an archaic, overly simplistic formula that nobody uses, Dusty Baker was a better manager than Lou Pinella.

It took all season for Phil to find something to justify his Dusty man-love, but he wins. They can go make Phusty babies now.

And then we move on to the impetus of this article: Charlie Manuel is the bestest manager in the bestest way in the bestest history of history.

Why? Well, because the Indians have been bad since he left.

Manuel, who had been Mike Hargrove's hitting coach during Cleveland's heyday a decade ago, replaced Hargrove as manager before 2000. His first two teams won 90 games and 91 games, winning the American League Central in 2001.

But Shapiro sacked him after a 39-47 start in '02. The firing came less than nine months after Shapiro had been promoted to replace John Hart as general manager. He tabbed Joel Skinner, an organization guy, as an interim manager to finish out the season but then turned to the 35-year-old Eric Wedge for 2003.

We're getting to it...

You can't blame Manuel for being just a little amused looking at what has happened to the Indians since they sacked him.

Four of Wedge's six seasons have been losing ones; Manuel, on the other hand, never has had a losing record for a full season. The Pythagorean rankings, which essentially measure a team's victory total with the number suggested by its run production and prevention, have Wedge at -19 for his six-year career; Manuel is at zero for the six full seasons he has managed in Cleveland and Philadelphia.

This should just about cover it:

Cleveland Indians Payroll Since 2000:

2008: $ 78,970,066
2007: $ 61,673,267
2006: $ 56,031,500
2005: $ 41,502,500
2004: $ 34,319,300
2003: $ 48,584,834
2002: $ 78,909,499
2001: $ 93,360,000 (Manuel)
2000: $ 76,500,000 (Manuel)

Any correlation? Me thinks so!

But no. It's because Charlie Manuel is the smartest manager to ever don a fat baseball uniform.

Did Phil watch Manuel's press conferences?

He sounded like this guy:

"I wasn't working on trying to prove nothing," Charlie Manuel said.

More to come.

Phil Watch: Ah, C'mon! (Con't)

I would be remiss if I didn't at least mention this here at Phil Watch, as Phil got his ass handed to him on sports radio all last week over it.

Why?

Well...see for yourself.

The Cubs are on the list of teams for which Jake Peavy will waive his no-trade clause. This doesn't look like a fit, but don't be surprised if Jim Hendry tries to put together a package that would include a swap of first basemen, Derrek Lee and Adrian Gonzalez, who is supposedly untouchable.

Jake Peavy - by himself - being traded to the Cubs 'doesn't look like a fit', but...

The Padres, a team desperately trying to get younger and shed payroll, would trade away a 26 year-old first basemen considered by most to be one of the best in the game for a 'package' headlined by a 33 year-old first basemen in serious offensive decline and is owed $26 million over the next two years and has a no-trade clause.

Oh yeah. And Gonzalez's contract obligation over the next three years:

09:$3M, 10:$4.75M, 11:$5.5M club option (no buyout)

Now...if you're a team trying to rebuild...THERE IS NOBODY YOU WOULD REBUILD AROUND MORE!!!

And Peavy going to be included AS WELL?????!!!!!!

Phil's 'package' would have to include Soto and/or Marmol for Towers to even pick up the phone. Or a farm system dump the likes of which haven't been seen since the Johan Santana trade. Mention the realistic details, Phil. And then check your inbox.

Have I been expecting too much from the Chicago Tribune all this time? Is this my fault somehow?

Phil Rogers. Capturing the essence of a Score caller for three-plus decades.

But

I must give Phil credit where it's deserved. Well...this is mostly due to the fact that Rick Morrissey wrote something so breathtakingly stupid, making Phil's response was positively sane in comparison.

It's the typical shit. The World Series experiences a rain delay and sportswriters compulsively feel the need to prove their mettle by writing reactionary pieces promoting the wholesale destruction of the current model.

It's what they do. It makes them feel important, if only briefly.

Here's Morrissey:

1. Start the season on April 15 and end it on September 15, resulting in a 130 game season.

2. Better yet, start May 1 and end it August 30. The season is way too long.

3. The Steroids Era ruined stats anyway so fuck it.

4. Move the World Series to a neutral, warm-weather site.

5. Like Game 5 this year, one hour and 18 minute games are awesome.

Should BRE start a Rick Watch? WOW!

Phil's response:

1. Keep the season at 162 games.

2. Cut Spring Training by one week.

3. Start the season 10 days earlier.

4. Have teams play three scheduled doubleheaders.

5. Add a 26th player to the roster.

6. World Series played between October 13-21 every year. First round increased to seven games.

I could get behind that.

And if 10,000 people can run 26.2 miles in the New York Marathon on November 2, a few baseball players can play their little game in late October.

See. I think they alternate between who is going to be the raging moron each week over at the Trib.

Phil just volunteers a lot.

Phil Watch: Phil's Baaaaaaccckkk!

See.

Off-season Phil is da bomb!

Christo's gonna need something to get himself through another winter and Phil's going to be his chenille throw blanket providing a reassuring warmth on those cold wintry evenings.

Let's get started.

Could Manny Ramirez join the Cubs?

It's a long shot, but don't count out Hendry's go-for-broke approach

Let's rephrase that. The Cubs already have almost $130 million committed before making pitches to Dempster and Wood. $150 million after that. The Cubs are about to be sold, the economy's in the porcelain poop dispenser and the stadium revenue streams are maxed out.

Hey, let's write a completely nonsensical article about the Cubs' chances of signing a 36 year-old left fielder demanding a six-year contract at $20 million per year. With another wildly overpaid and untradeable player currently occupying his position.

I'll say this. Phil knows these internets. I can only imagine the number of people clicking on this one just to see how stupidly stupid it might be. It's about page hits, people. Shrewd devil, that Phil.

Manny Ramirez won't be going to Boston for the World Series. No one knows where he will wind up in 2009, including Ramirez or his agent, Scott Boras, both of whom are the cleanup hitters of their businesses.

Despite unprecedented production under the brightest lights, the baggage Ramirez carries is so heavy that it's unclear if the Los Angeles Dodgers will pay to bring him back. His fit elsewhere is equally unclear, as is the outlook for improving a Cubs team that has gone 0-6 the last two Octobers.

Could those uncertainties merge?

Ooooh, Phil Game! Pick two uncertainties in life and ask if they can somehow merge. No criteria and critical thinking needed. Just think of two things and ask if it will get Joe The Ass Picker from Cicero to read your column. Points for coming up with an enticing headline.

It's uncertain right now if Green Party presidential candidate Cynthia McKinney will win the election. People are uncertain about the economy and want a new face.

Will those uncertainties merge?

Headline: Could a Bat-Shit Loony Presidential Candidate Win The Election?

With the aggressive nature of general manager Jim Hendry and the anything-to-win approach in the Lou Piniella era, don't rule this out—not if the Dodgers would take on a big contract or two from the Cubs.

Every big contract the Cubs have right now includes...(drumroll)...A NO-TRADE CLAUSE! And why specifically the Dodgers? Manny's a free agent and the Dodgers get two draft picks if they offer and he walks.

Soriano? Where does he fit with the Dodgers? They have 5.4 billion outfielders right now, including two with bad contracts (Pierre/Jones) and two leadoff hitters (Furcal if signed and Pierre). Why, exactly would the Dodgers bite, Phil? So far, you sound like a Score caller.

Ramirez? He's less than two years away from being a 10-5 player. Why is he waiving his no-trade clause?

Lee? Loney equals his production and is 42 years younger and $8 billion cheaper.

But before getting all speculative, let's revisit Ramirez's impact after being traded from Boston to the Dodgers at the July 31 deadline.

Let's.

Baseball's most dreaded hitter, he batted .520 with four homers, 10 RBIs, nine runs and 11 walks in eight postseason games. He played 61 games in all for Los Angeles, a team that was punchless before adding him, and delivered a .410 average with 21 home runs and 63 RBIs.

But...but...but...that doesn't tell me why the Dodgers would take a couple of big (see: Bad) contracts from the Cubs. Does Phil know Manny's a free agent?

He had a .513 on-base percentage and a .783 slugging average—numbers that combine for a 1.296 OPS. He has played in 108 career postseason games for Cleveland, Boston and the Dodgers and delivered a .286 average with 28 homers, 74 RBIs and a .949 OPS.

Phil did math! It wasn't Phil-Math. Just regular, logical math. Still don't know why the Dodgers are taking on Cubs' contracts.

Ramirez gave up a $20 million option in Boston to become a free agent after this season.

Whew!! Phil knows it. I was worried.

Wait a minute...that makes this even stupider!

He is 36 and, according to Boras, deserving of a six-year contract that will pay him top-of-the-scale money until he's 42, as Alex Rodriguez will be and Barry Bonds was in his last contract. Boras points out a quality that separates Ramirez from those other elite hitters.

Well, shit. If Boras said it, it must be true. Always trust guys in life who are looking to get paid. Trust everything out of their mouth without question. That's today's life lesson from Christo.

"He not only gives you performance of the highest level during the season, but in the postseason he just carries a team," the agent told ESPN Friday.

Are quotes from Boras supposed to buttress this argument? Still don't know how Manny fits into the Cubs scheme and why the Dodgers and specifically the Dodgers are taking Cubs' contracts.

Boras believes this quality trumps questions about Ramirez's on-again, off-again effort and the selfishness that eventually made him persona non grata after two World Series parades in Boston. It's unclear whether Hendry or executives with other teams will bite.

Wait just one moment. I say again. Phil posited the question, "Could Manny Ramirez Join The Cubs?" and we're 1/2 of the way through this shit and he still hasn't even formed something resembling an argument that would hold up to the scrutiny of my four year-old nephew. Well, that nephew might be six...or ten by now, but you get my drift.

If there's a fan base ripe for that pitch, it's the fans in the bars in Wrigleyville.

Ka-boom! There we go. That's his argument right there. The Cub fans might want it so it could, should and will happen. Because the economics and rationale of baseball moves don't even enter the picture in Cub fan fantasyland. It just should happen.

Just like the last caller on the Holmes & Hampton show that said the Cubs should trade Fukudome, Fontenot and Howry to the Orioles for Brian Roberts. Forget the fact that Howry's a free agent. Angelos should do it because the Cubs deserve a World Series and any player that once put on a Cub uniform is as valuable and the most valuable valuables on the planet.

They have watched Alfonso Soriano and Aramis Ramirez go a combined 5-for-51 in the crushing first-round losses to the Dodgers and Arizona and are hungrier than ever for the full ride, not just the big tease.

I would pay money to see the Cubs only acquire players that have had post-season success. Craig Counsell, Tito Landrum and Scott Brosius are looking for work, I'm sure.

There's no way the Cubs can play two left fielders, so Soriano would have to go for Ramirez to come.

Whhhhaaaaa? Phil's addressing actual issues? Let's see where this goes.

Soriano seems to be essentially an immovable object with six years and $106 million left on his contract, but the Dodgers will need two things if they don't re-sign Ramirez—power hitting and another buzz guy.

And too tweaky, moody and demands to lead off or he'll pout. Forgot that, Phil.

Could Soriano soften the blow of losing Ramirez?

Yeah, the Dodgers need more guys prone to missing baseball games to injuries. And what baseball fan doesn't know what Soriano really is? Buzz guy? Last time I checked, the Dodgers don't have problems putting butts in seats. Who in their right mind would make a decision whether to go or not go to a baseball game based on the presence of Alfonso Soriano?

"I have a lot of work to do and a lot of decisions to make," Dodgers GM Ned Colletti told the Los Angeles Daily News last week. "I'll do a lot of listening."

And if Coletti takes Soriano's contract, he will not be a GM much longer. Even the lame-ass LA media will eat him alive.

If Hendry, who still needs his own contract extension, decides to make major changes, the Cubs and Dodgers could have lots to talk about.

Again. WHY DO THE CUBS AND DODGERS SPECIFICALLY HAVE ANYTHING TO TALK ABOUT!!!!!!

With Derek Lowe eligible for free agency and Brad Penny and Jason Schmidt physical wrecks (Penny has a $9.25 million option that might not be exercised), the Dodgers likely will be in the market for starting pitching. The Cubs have it to trade, especially if they keep Ryan Dempster and Kerry Wood off the free-agent market.

Who...what the...why....how would...????? WHO'S BEING TRADED FOR WHO AND WHAT DOES THIS HAVE TO DO WITH MANNY AND THE DODGERS????!!!!!!

They could move Soriano or Aramis Ramirez to address the Dodgers' need for power hitting, although like Carlos Zambrano both have full no-trade clauses that would have to be waived. Both teams have bad contracts they might be willing to discuss to try to get a deal done (most notably Kosuke Fukudome, Andruw Jones, Juan Pierre and Schmidt).

Phil had to be drunk when he wrote this. I bet he woke up the next morning and had some vague memory of doing something last night. He clicked on the Trib site and saw it.

And then I bet he was proud of himself that he didn't, in his mind, embarrass himself.

It's a sliding scale when taking into account everything he's written.

I ask again/again/again/again. How would the Cubs trading for Andruw Jones, Juan Pierre and/or Jason Schmidt help the Cubs SIGN MANNY RAMIREZ?!%^&#%AA@

JHC, this is a rambling, incoherent piece of poo!

Manny Ramirez's first option is to go back to the Dodgers. But if owner Frank McCourt isn't willing to make that happen, all bets are off.

Ending with 'all bets are off' is like those people that posit a stupid-ass argument and reply to logic that debunks said argument with a "You neeevvveeerrr kkkknnnoooowwww..."

I tried to put together a scenario using Phil's logic here. I took a shower, ate some lunch and pondered anything in the same universe as rational and I couldn't come up with anything. Could the Cubs acquire Pierre and Jones and trade Soriano and Zambrano to make room (?) for Manny? There were charts and graphs and logarithms and tarot cards and I came up with nothing.

I did come up with one thing.

Phil's back. It's going to be a good winter.

Phil Watch: More Words, Still Stupid

For the last 18 days or so, Phil's been a busy little bee.

He's had a column/article a day every day since September 11.

It's been the usual amalgam of game recaps straining for big picture analysis coupled with dumb-ass opinions like "Cabrera Worth Keeping Around" and "Despite Off-Night, Alexei Rookie Of The Year Frontrunner".

And my personal favorite would be Phil passing off the declaration of Arizona as the NL West winner on MAY 1 (!) onto the Tribune instead of himself.

Sorry, Phil. You can erase your columns in the Tribune archive but BRE diligently keeps all of theirs. You said it. Not in your dippy power rankings that supposedly come from a roundtable discussion but your column.

But that's the reason Phil Watch has died a slow death here at BRE. Phil wore me down. There's nothing fun about beating up on an unmitigated moron. You need some level of sanity interjected with stupidity to keep it spicy.

100% dumb = 100% boredom.

And I've said it before and I'll say it again. Who reads Phil the first time...and comes back for MORE?

With that, let's go back for more.

Phil's Ranking Of Playoff Teams:

Editor's note: These picks are the result of statistical analysis weighted toward pitching and defense and performance since the All-Star break. The Tribune used this formula after the regular season in 2007 and correctly picked Boston over Colorado in the World Series and six of the seven postseason series. That analysis gives us Cubs over Boston in the 2008 World Series.

Thanks for the actual formula. Oh...wait. There is no actual formula. Just some vague reference to 'pitching and defense and performance' (yet another clue that Phil's editor gave up years ago).

1. Cubs (3): Picked to go to the World Series by many during spring training, the Lou Crew handled the heat during the regular season, but it's about to get turned up several degrees. It's a veteran team with quality leaders in Derrek Lee, Mark DeRosa, Ryan Dempster and Kerry Wood, but there's no getting around the burden it carries with fans. This is a much better team than the one that got within five outs of the World Series in 2003, but Carlos Zambrano has become a question mark and the lineup remains built around guys who were shut down by Arizona in the 2007 playoffs.

Using Phil's own 'statistical analysis and tying that to players actually mentioned, let's see the results.

Kerry Wood: 3.92 ERA after the All-Star break (good for 18th among closers). 7.45 ERA in September.

Derrek Lee: .270 5 hr 34 rbi. OPSed .745 since the break, good for 3rd-to-last among first basemen with 200 abs, ahead of only Kotchman and Millar.

Mark DeRosa: Has a calf issue, hit .234 in September and his first half was nearly identical to his second half. Basically had two productive months (with August accounting for nearly one-third of his overall production).

Carlos Zambrano: Take out the no-hitter from his September starts and he has a 12.71 ERA with a 2.12 WHIP.

The team was 12-12 in September and a merger 4 games over .500 on the road for the year. There ARE issues here.

I know Cub fans don't like trends and statistics and...you know...analysis outside of "The Cubs are goin' all the way, baby!!!! WOOOO!!!!" but can they just be like real baseball fans and look at their team through sober goggles. Just once. It would be soooo refreshing.

2. Red Sox (4): The closest thing to a dynasty at this time, Boston has won two of the last four World Series and is a serious contender again. Jason Bay came up huge after being acquired in the Manny Ramirez trade, which veteran players welcomed. The Red Sox's pitching is set with a rested Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka. Mike Lowell's hip bears watching.

Okay. Boston's played well since the Manny trade. True. But they basically had a generous schedule, allowing them to a crapload of teams under .500 and they beat them, especially in August.

Lowell's hurt. Drew's hurt. Youkilis and Pedroia cooled off dramatically in September and Ortiz still isn't his usual self.

And it was reported 48 hours ago that Beckett's start has been pushed back to Game 3 because of an injured side. Just check the wires once, Phil.

Oh yeah, and their bullpen has been anything but stellar this year.

This aren't concerns?

3. Rays (1): You need a microscope to find the separation between Tampa Bay and Boston, who could meet in the American League Championship Series. The Rays are a good bet to get past the AL Central survivor in the first round. The strength of this team is its ability to stop opponents from scoring, but none of the starters goes into the playoffs on a roll.

No complaints. About right. Though they will be riding into the playoffs without a real closer.

4. Dodgers (7): You know Joe Torre loves taking this team to the playoffs when the Yankees couldn't get there behind Joe Girardi, his replacement. Some say the key to the Dodgers' turnaround was the trade for Casey Blake, not the more widely celebrated deal for Ramirez. Either way, the lineup was successfully rebuilt on the fly. Derek Lowe and Chad Billingsley are a solid 1-2 combination.

Who is 'some'? He's hit .251/.313/.460 for the Dodgers.

Let's project Blake's Dodger numbers out to a full season (about 530 abs):

.251/.313/.460 25 hrs, 57 rbi, 30 db, 40 bb, 130 k

Guess how that's astonishingly close to being? Nick Swisher. 2008 Nick Swisher. Blake's ever-so-slightly better, statistically. He had some big hits in August, but a grand total of six RBI in September.

It's cute but entirely wrong to think Blake had a better impact than Manny. So-So-So Wrong.

Let's project Manny's numbers with the Dodgers out to an entire season (about 560 abs):

.396/.489/.743 51 hrs, 159 rbi, 42 db, 105 bb, 114 k

That's an OPS of 1.232! And an OPS+ of 213! Mickey Mantle OPS+ed higher than that exactly once. Willie Mays never did. Babe Ruth had a career OPS+ of 207.

You make the call. Who's meant more to the Dodger turnaround?

Dope.

5. Phillies (6): Charlie Manuel's bullpen, anchored by Brad Lidge (41-for-41 in save situations), is the envy of just about every team still playing. First baseman Ryan Howard is a serious MVP candidate after a 48-homer, 146-RBI season, albeit with 199 strikeouts. The Phils have a legitimate four-man rotation.

No complaints, really. I think Howard deserves serious consideration as well. He hit .352 in September when they needed him to and .320 with RISP on the year.

I don't know who this 'legitimate four-man rotation' is that Phil speaks of, though.

Hamels = Good

Moyer = Pitched kind of out of his gourd this year

Blanton = Pretty terrible

Myers = One good six-week stretch and absolutely terrible otherwise.

Legitimate?

6. Brewers (15): General manager Doug Melvin made some dubious history by sacking manager Ned Yost on Sept. 15. The move did arrest a slide in which Milwaukee had lost seven of eight games, but no one's bragging about a 6-14 record in non-CC Sabathia starts down the stretch. A shaky bullpen is sometimes exposed by poor fielding.

No. A shaky bullpen is exposed by their inherent shakiness. They're terrible.

Now. Someone explain to me how the Brewers are a better team than....THE ANGELS!

7. Angels (2): They led the majors in victories but aren't close to being the best team. Like the Cubs, their key is their organizational depth, especially in starting pitching (Jon Garland and Jered Weaver, who combined for 25 wins, work out of the bullpen in the Boston series). The lineup improved dramatically in the second half, thanks in part to Mark Teixeira, but teams with middle-infield questions usually don't go a long way in October.

100-62, folks. And in Phil's world, they're no better than the two shittiest teams on this list.

And here's the best part. See that number in parenthesis up there next to the team name. That's what they were rated LAST WEEK!

So using 'statistical analysis based on pitching and defense and performance' since the break, Phil says, as of last week, the Angels were good. They had the unmitigated gall to go 4-3 for the week, playing their Salt Lake team for the most part, and that drops them to the 7th best playoff team!

They've scored the second-most runs among playoff teams since the break, had the second-best OPS as a team among playoff teams since the break, have a clearer pecking order in the bullpen than any playoff team right now and went 17-8 to finish the season.

What's the problem?

Oh, apparently the middle infield is a concern. Howie Kendrick has committed a grand total of 4 errors in 446 chances this year and Erick Aybar, while committing 18 errors, never had a error that really meant anything. How do I know? I WATCHED THE GAMES!

If he would have written about concerns over Lackey's consistency and velocity and the second-half fade of Joe Saunders, fine. Even the crappy second half Figgins had, that would be legitimate.

But there's nothing wrong with Kendrick and Aybar that's going to stop the Angels from advancing in the postseason. Nothing.

And they are NOT a worse team, given the pitching and defense and performance and trends and heart of the lineup and bullpen and managers and bench and everything else than the Brewers, Phillies and Dodgers in the least and probably the Rays. I worry about Boston but they beat them 8 of 9 times this year, finally getting over the Red Sox hump.

JESUS!

I'm under no illusions here. The postseason is a whole new ballgame. And the Angels have their issues but...

DOUBLE JESUS!

8. Twins (12): Minnesota has come this far only by backing up more slowly than the White Sox. The Twins have gone 14-20 since Aug. 23 with a young starting rotation looking very ordinary. Batting champ Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau are leaned on heavily.

I'm still mad about the #7 ranking of the Angels.

9. White Sox (9): Poised on the edge of extinction, it's hard to see Ozzie Guillen's team doing any damage in October. It's a team badly in need of rest, and at this point the only way to get a break is to be eliminated. The White Sox hit more homers than any other team but badly miss MVP candidate Carlos Quentin.

Still mad.