Phil Watch: Oh, Brother

Big Weekend for Phil.

Five, count them, five articles from Phil with the Hall of Fame induction on Sunday and the trade deadline this week.

I can't tell you anything about his HOF article because I fell asleep after the third paragraph.  I challenge you to not do the same.  I think Phil was running out of gas.  

It's hard work, this baseball writing and stuff.  Can you imagine having to write 3,000 words a week that comprises of never having to pick up the phone while taking most of your quotes from MLB.com's beat writers?  It's hard.

Let's get started with Power Rankings For Morons:

1. Yankees (3): Alex Rodriguez is playing with a mission after hip surgery and his steroid revelations. He turns 34 on Monday but is showing he's not too old to learn new tricks, like hitting in the clutch and playing within a team concept. Thirty-one of his 55 RBIs either tied the game or gave the Yankees the lead.

l;KJ['98afwewg8uiovbncjw!!!!  Already crapped my pants.  This is going to be a long one.  

I challenge Phil to show me one instance in A-Rod's career when he did something that was not within a team concept.  

I don't have the energy to get into this 'A-Rod isn't clutch' bullshit.  It's right here.  You do the work.

3. Red Sox (1): Last week's five-game losing streak has unsettled Red Sox Nation, which holds its breath when anyone other than Jon Lester or Josh Beckett is on the mound. The addition of Adam LaRoche has done nothing to spark a lineup that was fourth in the AL in scoring in June but has slipped to 10th in July.

Phil filed this on Saturday morning.  As of Saturday morning, Adam LaRoche hadn't had an at-bat with the Red Sox.  

Adam's a jerk.  His non-playing essence hadn't been anything to 'spark' the Carmines.

8. Rockies (5): Might have grabbed wild-card lead too early. Could be tougher to maintain position than to take it.

Would somebody tell me what the fuckity-fucking fuck that fucking means!!!!!!????

That easily goes directly into the top 10 of the stupidest things Phil has ever written.

I say #6 without checking.

11. Tigers (13): Keep an eye on Justin Verlander. He's made four 120-plus-pitch starts. The Royals' Gil Meche wound up on the disabled list shortly after his third of that length.

(Trying...not...to...make...a...Dusty...Phil...hummer...joke)  Alright, I could be wrong but I've been told on good authority that Verlander and Meche aren't the same person.  The logistics alone of pitching for two different teams under two different names without anyone catching on with be a nightmare.  Imagine when they play each other.  I don't think it could happen.

15. Braves (21): Finally, the run we'd been waiting for. The starting rotation has been the key but don't overlook the contributions from Yunel Escobar, Brain McCann and others.

I love it when Phil tells us to not overlook players ('don't be surprised' is another Phil-ism).  It's the kind of stuff that comes from people who probably did some overlooking themselves in life so they overcompensate by couching it in language that falsely asserts some sense of authority after the fact.  Ya know, like guys who steer a perfectly normal conversation into some subject that just read an article on and then talk about it like they're the freakin' messiah on the subject.

 

19. Astros (18): Traditional second-half climbers, they swept St. Louis last week but still haven't proven their staying power. Expect a move or two before the deadline.

32-20 since May 28.  No staying power?  That's a 100-win pace over a full season. 

And no significant moves will happen.  GM Ed Wade has been on the record numerous times on that.  It's called the internet.  Use it.

Dope.

A prospect of some note was traded from St. Louis this week.  Phil took time out of a three day sobbing fit to write some stuff on it.  

Brett Wallace never played a game for the St. Louis Cardinals. He did get into one at Busch Stadium, however, and he was cheered by St. Louis fans like he was already one of the franchise's greats.

The sports media collectively wet their pants over Brett Wallace when the trade happened.  The formula certainly played itself out quite well.  All the writers caught the Futures Game where Wallace went 0-2 with two walks and heard the announcers blowing him during every at-bat.  Poof!  They know everything they need to know about Brett Wallace.

But...

Wallace, viewed as the future of the franchise since being landed in the first round of the 2007 draft, batted third for the United States team in the Futures Game two weeks ago. He put on a show in batting practice, hitting line drives all around the field before sending some balls in the seats.

I know when I see batting practice, nothing gets me all tingley like seeing line drives off a 70 year-old coach throwing 65 MPH.

Want to know more about Brett Wallace?

He's 6'1", 245 lbs!  God.  Dang!  The BMI indicator puts him into the "obese" category.

More?

His defense is bleech.  One scout went so far to say, "He can hit but he throws like a girl."

So he will being moving from third base in the future when he ascends to the throne of "The Future Of Some Franchise."  

So...in St. Louis...would he have gone to first base?  Well...they have this guy over there that they're quite high on.  Time will tell, though.

Outfield?  245 lbs.  Put him in center because I need to see that.

DH?  Oh, wait.  The NL doesn't have one.  

Where's he playing for St. Louis again?

What?  Keep him around as insurance against a Pujols injury?  Keep that instead of sticking Holliday in left in a year where the division is COMPLETELY wide open?  

Brett Wallace is EXACTLY the kind of guy that you sell high on.

Yes, this was the guy the St. Louis fans had read about -- the one who twice won Triple Crowns in the Pac-10 conference while at Arizona State. And he didn't disappoint them in the game, twice working highly regarded prospects for walks before leaving.

Only 22 and already at Triple-A, the sweet-swinging, heavy-legged Wallace seemed poised for a long and productive career as a Cardinal.

And now he's not there any more.

We have an emerging new disease that the CDC should probably keep an eye on.

It's called the Pablo Sandoval Disease.  Just because "The Heavy-Set One" is overcoming his fatness to hit well and play multiple positions well (including catcher, a position reserved for the fat ones), we now can dismiss girth as a possible negative worth examining. 

Oh, and Wallace wasn't exactly chewing up and spitting out Triple-A pitchers this year.

If Beane values him, you sell that.  The other two prospects are worth mentioning.  Phil only cites their names (Baseball America contributor, everyone). 

Ownership's willingness to spend had been question, but now the Cardinals have added about $8 million to an Opening Day payroll of about $88.5 million.

A $96.5 million budget is now bad in Phil's world...for a team with a new ballpark, a fanbase loyal to a fault, averaging over 40,000 per home game and a healthy ownership situation that's more than willing to spend. 

If the budget ISN'T about $96.5 million, THAT would be a tragedy.   

Rick Ankiel, a disappointment this year, has gone from the middle of the lineup to the front of the bench. La Russa plans to play Holliday in left, Colby Rasmus in center and Ryan Ludwick in left.

This is the kind of stuff that started Phil Watch.

Ankiel, since the Holliday trade, has been the center fielder.  Why?

Tell me which player is which:

Player A:  .259/.309/.441 11 hrs, 34 rbi, 57 ks in 297 at-bats with a 23.4 UZR/150 in 92 games

Player B:  .236/.290/.404 7 hrs, 27 rbi, 57 ks in 250 at-bats with a 16.3 UZR/150 in 77 games

They're nearly identical (Rasmus is Player A).  

Both play great defense, Ankiel has more experience and with Holliday, DeRosa and Lugo now in the lineup, there is no added pressure on either to perform.

It is and will be a straight-out platoon because Rasmus is abysmal against lefties.  He's a rookie and had one good month.  Take out June and he's a .230 hitter this year.  

The risk is that something will go wrong and the Cardinals will lose first their playoff standing and then Holliday (a Scott Boras client) as a free agent. This is a high stakes season in St. Louis, no doubt about it.

Well no shit, Sherlock.  Of course it's a risk.  Thank you, Captain Obvious.

But the play here is getting Holliday back to the NL and putting yourself at the front of the line in the Holliday free agent sweepstakes.

The Cardinals have to address the protection of Pujols in the order.  And the suddenly-terrible 2010 free agent class doesn't have it outside of Bay, which Boston has the inside track on.  Holliday would be looking at the Yankees, Yankees and Yankees without this late-season move to St. Louis.  This puts them in the running.   

A one-two punch of Holliday-Pujols for five years makes them a front-runner in that division every year.  

The Cardinals' payroll commitments for the next three years make them absolutely able to make that happen.

2010:  $50.59 million

2011:  $44.19 million

2012:  $13.94 million

Of course, as an Angels fan, I know first-hand how that crap tends to work out (Screw you, Mark).

In short, what would you have them do, Phil?  It's not "high stakes."  It's what smart clubs do when they have the money and will.

Here's an idea.  Instead of sitting back, gauging the rest of the sports world's reaction to any deal and write something that mimics it to the letter, write something with a fresh, intelligent angle.

I forgot.  We got the fresh part.  It's "The Cubs need to dump Zambrano now."

He just missed the intelligent part.

  

Phil Watch: More Twins Love

Just a couple of juicy bits from Phil's offerings this weekend.

The rest was something akin to a shelf full of tchotchkes.

Like how people didn't know who Carl Crawford was until this year, Chase Utley is serious about the All-Star game and Omar Vizquel owns kangaroos.  

Let's get started.

Don't overlook the Twins as a possible playoff team. They are 13-9 against the six teams in first place at the break. Only the Rays (10-6) had a better record, with no one else more than two games better than .500. ... 

Twins reference #465,992 for Phil.

So...we're dealing with Boston, Detroit, the Angels, Philly, St. Louis and the Dodgers.

Here's a list of the starting pitchers the Twins faced in their 13 wins:

Dustin Moseley (bad)

Darren Oliver (not a starter)

Shane Loux (Triple A pitcher)

Edwin Jackson x 2 (good)

Armando Galarraga (bad this year)

Dontrelle Willis (bad for eternity)

Justin Verlander (struck out 13 in 6 1/3)

Lon Lester (had an ERA of 6.07 at the time) 

Daisuke Matsusaka (real bad this year - second best game he pitched)

Adam Wainwright (good)

Joel Piniero (has been good this year)

Rick Porcello (has a 5.09 ERA since the beginning of June)

Now...should it matter that they got three of those wins in early April against the Angels when they had 28 out of a possible 25 players on the DL?

Or that they got the unbelievable fortune of facing Willis and Matsusaka?

Or that they're 0-7 against the Yankees?

Or taking out Edwin Jackson who, to their credit, they beat up, the top 10 guys in ERA in the AL have a 1.98 ERA against the Twins (yeah, I did the work)?  

Or that in the six games against the Royals, they never faced the AL ERA leader Greinke (Sox faced him three times)?

Does all this matter?  Probably not.  Because it's 22 freakin' games!  And as you see, when you get into the details, there are loads of qualifiers that are entirely relevant to the equation.

The Twins are good.  Nobody's "overlooked" the Twins.  But c'mon.  Gotta go beyond 'record against' if you want to make a salient point.

Aaaaand then there's more masturbation to the Twins' Twinsiness.

Count Twins first baseman Justin Morneau among the majority of players unafraid to ask for help. He chose a clever way to prod GM Bill Smith into trying to add reinforcements, saying the "aggressiveness" of the front office could have an impact on Joe Mauer staying in Minnesota after his contract ends in 2010.

"It's frustrating going out every day and hearing that 'We want to win a World Series' and then not seeing more aggressiveness," Morneau said. "Something like that is going to affect his decision more than the value of the contract. We already have all the money we're ever going to need."

Justin Morneau is unafraid and clever for saying such things.

But, in Phil's world, Ryan Braun committed a sin and 'put a bullseye on his GM's back' for doing the EXACT SAME THING two weeks ago:

2. Quick question: Did Ryan Braun send Doug Melvin a thank-you note when the Brewers GM traded for CC Sabathia last season? Has he patted owner Mark Attanasio on the back, both for Braun’s own eight-year, $45-million contract and the team’s willingness to spend to compete? He should have, especially if he’s going to put a bullseye on his GM’s back, saying the team needs more pitching to compete.

Braun was right when he said that Milwaukee doesn’t have the starting pitching to stay with the Cubs. But he didn’t need to point that out, at least not to Melvin. He’s been trying to improve the Brewers’ shaky rotation but doesn’t have a lot of money to spend. There also are not many pitchers on the market, and the teams that have pitching to trade are looking for a lot in return.

Ryan Braun.  You are not nearly Twinsy enough.  At least not as much as the dreamy Justin Morneau.

Phil's flagship column tells us midseason trades rarely pay off, using Rich Harden as case #1 but mentions no others.  Then, toward the end of the column, mentions three that paid off just last year, including one on the World Series winner but says 'most' didn't.  

That's Phil-tastic!

Phil Watch: Halfway Through, Half-Ass Analysis

You know what I love?

Midseason awards columns.  You know why?

Cuz they always try to carry with them a feeling of Sisyphean relevance.  Writers try to 'Big Picture" it by placing the season into some sort of mythological context...up the hill, down the hill, up the hill...

It's the cautions they give that serve to show just how pointless and merely cute the whole exercise is in the first place.

Phil's no different.  He does it...because everybody else does it.

Let's get started.   

FAST FOOD FOR THOUGHT, HALF-MILE POST EDITION

Why is Phil the only one who capitalizes his Hardball posts?  It's positively Larry King-ish.

1. Time to roll out some mid-season awards.  If only all the categories were as clear as the National League MVP …

NL MVP: Albert Pujols – His run at the Triple Crown is making a flawed St. Louis team dangerous.  Also in the picture: Prince Fielder, Raul Ibanez, Chase Utley and Hanley Ramirez.

No problem wit dat, y'all.

AL MVP: Torii Hunter, Angels – You could put eight or 10 names in a hat and pull one out, as it’s clear the second half will do much to define the eventual voting. Lots of American Leaguers are having good seasons but none truly great seasons. Hunter gets the call because of his Gold Glove fielding as well as run production (.307-17-65) on an Angels team that has been struggling to score runs with Vlad Guerrero no longer an impact guy.  

Struggling to score runs?  Struggling to score...runs?

They 3rd in runs per game in ALL OF BASEBALL!  First in both June and July!

And the fifth-best OPS in the game for the entire year (3rd in June, 1st in July). 

Phil get paid to do this.

Torii Hunter gets real consideration.  Heck, this year he's even making the catches he didn't make last year, stuff that didn't show up in his fielding statistics.

But the Angels' relative success after the abomination that was the early bullpen (something that was well on it's way to being one of the historical worst in the history of baseball) has been the development of Juan Rivera and Kendry Morales.  Rivera is the most productive #5 hitter in the majors (1.111 OPS) and Morales has a .902 OPS in the six slot. 

Also in the picture: Joe Mauer, 

Remember to mop up after yourself, Phil.  Tissues are in the bottom drawer.  Mauer has a spectacular average and a ridiculous on-base percentage.  No question.  

But here's one for you.  Since June 3, a date that breaks Mauer's season roughly in half, he has a total of seven extra-base hits (5 doubles, 2 homers) with 10 RsBI from (mostly) the three spot in the Twins' lineup (133 PAs).  Compare that with before June 3 and you see a guy who was probably out of his gourd, is still seeing the ball well but is back to being an incredibly effective singles hitter who should be batting #2 (and that's where Gardenhire is now putting him).  

So...Placido Polanco.  And he's not really an MVP.  Good player.  Not MVP.

Justin Morneau,

Maybe.  Having a great season.  Team's still a .500 club.

Ichiro Suzuki, 

As an Angels' fan, Ichiro's in consideration because I'm beginning to fear the Mariners more than the Rangers.  They're showing that 2007 Mariners Magic again.  Ichiro's been a big part.

Miguel Cabrera, Evan Longoria, Mark Teixeira,

Sure, sure, sure.  Why not?

Johnny Damon,

Meh.  Plays in a Nintendo lineup in a Nintendo ballpark.

even (no kidding) Ben Zobrist.

Let's put this one in the crockpot for a little longer.  Zobrist has never had double-digit home runs at any level before last year.  He currently projects to have 32 home runs in 2009.  Ben Zobrist will not have 32 home runs and lead the league in OPS in 2009.

...AL CY YOUNG: Zack Greinke, Royals – This is the easiest pick other than Pujols, although you do wonder about his second-half staying power. Those who could catch him: Felix Hernandez, Edwin Jackson, Roy Halladay, Mark Buehrle, Joe Nathan.

Or Phil could look at his gamelogs.  Screw this "second-half staying power" stuff. 

In his last seven starts - since May 31 - he has a 3.88 ERA and, even more disturbingly, a 1.34 WHIP for a 2-3 record, averaging 6 1/2 innings a start and a .785 OPS against. 

In his first ten starts, he had a 0.84 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 8-1 record, 7 1/2 innings a start and a ridiculous and unsustainable .506 OPS against.

There.  Trend found.  Took about five minutes.

...3. The Cubs are going to win the NL Central, despite all their stumbling in the first half.  Their starting pitching is too good for them not to win.  

Phil says so.

But let’s stop and compare the figures of Chicago’s two rotations:

Cubs: 28-26, 3.83, ranked 5th in ERA in the NL.

Sox: 30-29, 4.07, ranked 2nd in ERA in the AL.

Apples and oranges.  Different leagues.  Chasing different teams.

Now, let’s break it down a little bit, looking at the two teams since the second game of the White Sox’s June 8 doubleheader against Detroit, when Jose Contreras returned from his self-imposed minor-league stint.

Since then, White Sox starters are 11-6 with a 2.71 ERA; Cubs starters are 8-9, 3.98.

So...one month makes a season?  

The comparison to the Cubs is only being offered to make this point – if the Cubs are destined to win because of their deep starting rotation, couldn’t starting pitching also carry the White Sox?

Logic 101.  If A=B and B=C then A=C.  

Let's start with the very first assumption.  The Cubs starting pitching will eventually win the division.  This is apparently fact because Phil says so (and before the Dempster toe thingy).

Totally different beasts.  Teams aren't numerical, fixed values so the entire exercise is weird. 

I'll take Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright over Zambrano and Harden everyday of the week.  There.  That's the 1-2 comparison.  A healthy Kyle Lohse and a Joel Piniero with his new four-seamer that's getting groundballs at a great rate over Ted Lilly and Randy Wells/Dempster?  Probably not.  But the Cardinals can spend money right now.  The Cubs can't.

In the least, it's a wash.  Realistically, the Cardinals have the edge as the season wears on as they can move guys around for matchups, add at the deadline and are better at the top.  And if they're not, I don't want to see one more column about the awesomeness of Carpenter and Wainwright ever again.     

The foursome of Contreras (this Contreras, anyway), Buehrle, John Danks and Gavin Floyd could get the Sox back into the playoffs.  I have more respect for the teams the Sox must beat (Detroit and Minnesota) than the NL Central competition but this kind of starting pitching – and the emergence of Beckham – gives the Sox a real chance.

I give them a chance as well.  Just not because of the Cubs starting pitching comparison.  It's because of real baseball feelings based in fact and thought.

5. It’s been a while since I’ve written anything about Chris Young – the last time being when the Arizona Diamondbacks swept the Cubs in the 2007 playoffs.  But White Sox fans have long memories.

They have long memories because Phil mentioned it 486 times since the trade, many times when it was only tenuously connected to the topic at hand.  Keep bringing it up and people tend to remember.  That's how a mind works.

I got a couple e-mails this week chiding me about the .196 batting average being carried by Young, who one reader said was "your boy Chris Young.’’ Young’s career has been in a slide, mostly due to his inability to cut down on strikeouts – a cause for concern that I pointed to when Young was the White Sox’s Double-A center fielder – but it’s hard to see how that’s cause for celebration from anyone.

Bullshit.  Check for yourself.  He might have mentioned it once, way back but curiously never mentioned it again in the subsequent 12,548 times that followed, even as he didn't begin to cut down on his strikeouts.

Nobody's saying Chris Young is a bad person.  Just bad at hitting baseballs. 

He’s a great kid,

Irrelevant.

and he’s played 414 big-league games since Ken Williams sent him to Arizona in the Javier Vazquez trade. 

I have lived some 13,300 days without dying.  

The Diamondbacks thought so much of him that they gave him a five-year, $28-million contract.  

Just because a team throws stupid money at a player doesn't mean he's good.  Bad logic x 2.  See Barry Zito.

And last I looked White Sox fans weren’t thrilled about their three-year association with Vazquez, although I’d say that they undervalued the body of his work because he came up small in big starts.

See.  Phil.  Any snarkiness that comes your way comes from the placement of Young's name in badly-written evaluations of Kenny Williams' general managerness.  You repeatedly propped it up as an example of how short-sighted Kenny was even as all the evidence showed that there hasn't been one prospect Kenny's traded that became anything close to a productive major league baseball player.  In fact, Chris Young is becoming Exhibit A. 

Chris Young = bad at not swinging and missing while also bad at getting on base.  That = bad baseball player.   

Either way, you’ve got to love White Sox fans.  They know that Young is a much better player than Brian Anderson – whom Williams wouldn’t put in the Vazquez trade, leading the Diamondbacks to Young – but at the moment BA is out-hitting Young, even if he’s only batting .237.  So it’s clear that the Sox hoodwinked the D-backs by foisting off Young on them.  Yeah, right.

Much better?  What?  In the last season and a half, Young has an OPS+ of 85...for a guy with a decent amount of power.  That's awful.  It's what Juan Pierre's career OPS+ is.  

And every Sox fan I know can't stand Brian Anderson.

Also, I don't get it.  Phil says Sox fans didn't like Vazquez but Sox fans are also saying the team "hoodwinked" the D-backs?  Which is it?  What are these emails actually saying?

Verdict = made up composite email = Phil covering his own ridiculousness.

Therefore, verdict = Phil covering his own ridiculousness.  

So...par for the course, really.

It's Comin', People

Phil Rogers is most likely in the midst of wetting his crotchular region over Sam Fuld.

Saturday's column usually posts in the late afternoon for the Sunday edition.

I can't wait.

Phil Watch will be firing back up for the second half of the season. I didn't have the heart, energy or sycophantic joy in me to do this Sun-Times-ish piece of poo.

But have faith, kids. Phil gets really stupid as the trade deadline approaches.

Toodles.

Phil Watch: Mashed Potatoes

Phil hopes that other people will make decisions for him.

Stupid integrity clauses.  They just muck things up.

Phil Watch: Crap! Do I Have To?

I suppose I should.  It's been awhile.

So...Phil writes a column calling for the designated hitter in the National League because Zambrano pulled a hammy...

...and promptly uses every argument against the World Baseball Classic to support his own argument.

Now, I don't want to talk about the WBC any more than you do, but...

Let's get started.

National League needs designated hitter rule too

Zambrano's injury once again shows NL needs the DH

So how bad is it?

Carlos Zambrano landed on the disabled list Monday after straining his hamstring Sunday bunting for a hit? Will he miss more than two starts? And will his pitching be impacted when he returns?

Three questions, right?

If the answer to only one of those three questions is yes, the Cubs will have avoided a dangerous situation... 

How have they avoided a dangerous situation if the answer is yes to the first question?

Cripes.  Even the sports editors at the Trib have given up on Phil.

...one that in a tight playoff race -- which it appears they will be in this season, either with St. Louis for the division title or in the wild-card crowd -- could have lasting implications.

Phil loves lasting implications.  And harbingers.  And omens.

I think a bad edit in the first graph is a harbinger of things to come in this column.  It's an omen that will have lasting implications on my very psyche.

Like saying that the performances and standings on May 4 automatically means there will be a tight playoff race in September.  

Rule #1 for being a dippy sportswriter:  Draw wildly stupid conclusions based on a perilously small sample size.  

It's called the Swine Flu Rule.  Oh, sorry...the H1N1 Rule, because calling it the Swine Flu Rule upset the pork industry.  I'm not kidding.

A Zambrano injury from running the bases is not one of the worries they should have.

Well...then maybe using him as a pinch-hitter on days he's not pitching is a bad idea.  

C'mon.  Take a shot at Lou for being stupid.  It's your job.    

Most baseball fans disagree, especially those who follow National League teams, but here in the home office of Common Sense Central...

...it's time to make my recurring plea: Let's add the designated hitter rule to the NL, giving Major League Baseball the standard set of rules that exists in the NFL, NBA and NHL.

(wipes mouth)  Whew!  That was a big one.  Still kinda recovering from that previous piece of garbage.

I have a question, though.  (Glurp) 'Scuse me.  Why, exactly do all the leagues have to have a standard set of rules again?  Because it's pretty?  

Truly, I don't care either way.  I like the DH in the AL but I could give a poo whether the NL gets the DH.  Wait a minute.  He's not going to talk about the fragility of pitchers and how much clubs have invested in them...................is he?

I've written this before, and I'll write it again: 

You said that.

Every time a pitcher takes the field, he's an accident waiting to happen. The risks inherent in pitching are huge. It's silly to increase those risks to include the ones that hitters and baserunners face, especially when so much of a team's payroll and its hope for success is tied into those arms.

Oh, Holy Shit.  This...from the man sucking Bud Selig's gherkin all through the WBC!!!

But let's demand players play full-speed in full-fledged games before anything resembling Spring Training!!!

Crim.  In.  Y!!!

Zambrano, for example, is in the second year of a five-year, $91.5 million deal. He'll earn $17.75 million this season -- more than $500,000 per start. It's crazy that Lou Piniella used him in three consecutive games as a pinch-hitter, no matter how much he loves to hit or how much Wrigley Field fans love to watch him hit.

There!  That's your column!  

Not the fact that Zambrano pulled a hammy in a regularly scheduled at-bat means the NL should have the DH.

It's the fact that Hendry signed guys bad at baseball like Miles and Gathright, leaving Lou to get all cutesy and use El Loco as a pinch hitter to generate some offense.  It's the fact that Lou gave the front office the middle finger by doing it and nobody in town is writing about it because the Cubbies are cute.

National League fans argue that the old-fashioned game is a better one, that there's beauty in the art of the sacrifice bunt and that the DH rule eliminates much of "the chess game" between managers. I've got nothing against a bunt, not when it's being used by somebody who can hit, but the average NL pitcher batted .128 a year ago. The strategic considerations caused by sending men to the plate who can't hit are consistently overestimated.

Okay.  Here's a better way to make this argument.

Check the statistics for #8 hitters in both leagues in 2008 (NL/AL) and see the marked difference between all the guys who saw time there on a fairly regular basis (100 PAs).  

NL #8 hitters aren't seeing pitches, especially something they can drive, which should also shut up any argument regarding any move of the pitcher to the #8 spot, also something Phil also thought was intriguing.   

Most decisions managers make are automatic -- walk the No. 8 hitter to get to the pitcher; pinch-hit for the pitcher if you're behind and have a rally going. The play is dictated by the situation.

Agreed.  It's not quantum physics.  Don't forget the double-switch.  Only shamans have the ability to understand the delicate nuances and intricacies of that.  

Still reading? 

Crap.  He's talking to me.

If so, and if you've grown up watching NL ball, I apologize for the annoyance. I know this is fingers-on-chalkboard material. Feel free to disagree. But know that the price of your disagreement is to continue watching the AL be superior.

Quit apologizing!  Just make your case.  

Crap.  Now I'm talking to him.

An NL/DH backer will probably see the domination of the AL over the last decade and a half as a random, cyclical confluence of events. But I believe it has a lot to do with the DH rule.

Christo loves it when Phil thinks he's the first to think of things.  It's adorable, really.

For one thing, AL general managers are forced to develop or acquire one more quality hitter than their NL rivals. They can use the DH spot to lengthen the careers of one-dimensional veterans like Jim Thome or to open the doors to a young run-producer like Adam Lind or Matt LaPorta while a Jake Fox (.420, 12 homers, 31 RBIs in 21 games) is stuck at Iowa, the Cubs' Triple-A affiliate.

There we go!  We've found the real impetus of this column.  It's Phil's 2009 man-love for Jake Fox.  Sam Fuld denied his advances.

That's partly why AL payrolls are higher -- although not as much so in 2009 as in recent years -- and AL teams are deeper, thus better able to withstand injuries.

Load of crap.  The Yankees and Red Sox completely skew any comparison with their market size and TV contracts.  

Only four full-time DHs make over $10 million with none making over $13 million.   

Of the top-25 salaries in baseball, 14 are in the National League, none are DHs (BTW, three are Cubs, three are Astros, two are Dodgers, all big market teams no matter how much Houston likes to scream poverty.  And BTWW, Jason Schmidt is being paid over $15 million this year.).

And actually, of the top-100 salaries in baseball this year, I count only four full-time DHs.  

Hardly any bank is being broken in my book.  Yours?

There's no way to prove the next point, but I think it's a big one. Deeper AL lineups make for mentally tougher pitchers, who are more likely to perform under the greatest pressure.

They acquire the fire and the passion.

There's no way for a pitcher to finesse his way through any AL lineup. An NL starter is guaranteed some easy outs, which could help him get through two or three innings. I think the extra toughness shows up in October, when AL teams have won 11 of the last 17 World Series.

I just want to pet Phil at times.

Look, this shit is easy to look up.  The AL is better because the DH bumps the average to below-average down a notch.  

Simple.  Over.  Done.

The numbers are out there and it takes about two minutes to look up.

Check out what #8 hitters did by league in 2008 (it's summed up at the bottom).  And play around with it a little.  Go back a few years (2007 was an anomaly).  Every slot below #5 is slightly better in the AL compared to the NL.  

But all of that basically is silly and obvious.  The #9 hitters in the AL last year (and it pretty much holds up every year) hit .254 compared to .177 in the NL.  Cripes.  The NL #9 hitter OPSed .495 last year.  No position player came within 190 points of that.  Not even Michael Bourn or Willy Taveras, the definition of slap-hitters.

It's a better offensive league because better hitters have a chance to bat.

The DH is an advantage.  Come up with something bigger than Zambrano pulling a hammy, like actual statistics of pitcher injuries while batting and maybe I'll rethink my cancellation of the local paper.  Alas, that never happens, does it?

These are just theories, of course. So is this one: More of you would agree with me if Zambrano had strained a muscle in his rib cage taking a big hack or torn up his ankle sliding into second.

Can I ask why?  Why would that matter?

So if I were a person who believed in the pitcher hitting, I might be swayed by HOW Zambrano got injured?  I would question my entire baseball belief system by something that happened to a pitcher in early May?

That's how you end your treatise, Phil?

With nonsensical blather?  

I ask.  Phil has offered a mere 2,000 words a week of boring and ridiculous crap on average since this blog's inception.

For comparison, Big Red Egg last week, a very slow week at the mother ship, typed 2,327 words.  And that's taking out all the cut-and-pastes (which Phil basically does anyway.  Ba-Zing!).  

Would somebody please tell me who's paying this guy?

C'mon.  I need an answer.

PRFM: (sigh) Just. Check. The. Stats!

Last week's Power Rankings For Morons (it's now been patented, hence the italics) was an entirely inoffensive affair.  I can even say it was a nice little read.  

Two in a row?  Nah.

You might remember last year that Phil's PRFM occasionally did a funny thing.  He would pick one strange stat and use it as an indicator and justification for ranking a team in a certain slot.  

My favorite (and there were many) was probably a catcher's caught stealing percentage.

Today is "double-digit runs."  

Let's get started.

3. Blue Jays (3): Cito Gaston has done a good job getting results from a bullpen that no longer knows if it will be able to count on B.J. Ryan, whose velocity was way down before he went on the disabled list. The lineup hasn't gone more than seven games in a row without a double-digit day.

See.  I ain't no liar.  The Blue Jays have plated more than nine runs in a game four times.

For context, last year, the Rangers scored 10 runs or more 24 times, an average of one game a week and lining up with Phil's benchmark of "hasn't gone more than seven games in a row...."

Texas was not a good baseball club last year.

Yes.  The Blue Jays are scoring runs, mainly because Aaron Hill, Adam Lind and Travis Snider offer Jays' fans hope for the future instead of being relegated to rooting for a softball team.

But it's the completely revamped rotation that has been the surprise.  Starters two-through-five behind Halladay had a combined 23 major league starts coming into the '09 season.  They have a combined 3.55 ERA this year.  Take Purcey out of the equation and it's a 2.60 ERA.

As Texas repeatedly shows every year, you have to prevent runs along with scoring runs and the Blue Jays are currently doing that. 

But 10-run games are pretty.  

7. Mariners (8): A lot of executives must be kicking themselves for not listening harder when Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik called offering Jarrod Washburn. It's only three starts, but a 17-4 strikeout-walk ratio suggests he's poised for a good season.

Yes.  Jarrod Washburn is now a good pitcher because of three starts against a below average Minnesota team, a struggling Rays team and a horrid Angels team.  Two of three at home.

And yes, a 34 year-old pitcher who in 534 innings over the last three years has a 4.55 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP and a combined 23-43 record is now poised to be a good pitcher.

Wait!!  He's left-handed!!  The Cubs should get him.  They value left-handed guys above...well...every bit of evidence staring right in their face.

9. Complete games (NR): April isn't the month for them but there have been 10 already, including two apiece from Tim Wakefield and Zack Greinke. Wakefield, who got the benefit of a seven-inning complete game on Monday, became the oldest pitcher (42) to throw consecutive complete games since Charlie Hough did it for the White Sox in 1992.

If you didn't look it up, you'd think this was impressive/worrisome, right?

You'd think managers outside of the Dusty Baker wouldn't try to tax their arms so early in the season, right?

No.

Complete games thrown in April by year:

2008:  20

2007:  13

2006:  10

2005:  28

2004:  15

2003:  20

2002:  32

2001:  27

2000:  27

That took me about six minutes.  Just look it up.

Just looking at 2008, there is no correlation between how early it is in the season and the amount of complete games thrown.  

April:  20

May:  27

June:  16

July:  26

August:  25

September:  23

Factoring in that teams play on average three less games in April compared to the other months and there is absolutely, bar none, without a question, inarguably no correlation.   

14. White Sox (10): Jose Contreras and Bartolo Colon are 1-4 with a 7.12 ERA between them. Jeff Marquez, the top option in the minors, is 0-3 with a 13.06 ERA in Triple-A. Where have you gone, Javy Vazquez?

Javy Vazquez will be this year's Jon Garland in Phil's world.  Expect repeated potshots at Kenny for trading Vazquez anytime Contreras or Colon puke all over the mound.

15. Twins (15): Joe Mauer is close to returning in early May, if not sooner.

Dear diary, why won't Dreamy Joe love me?  

18. Tigers (17): Hit for double-digit run totals in back-to-back starts by Justin Verlander and Edwin Jackson. Allowed opponents to hit double digits in four of the first 15 games, an alarming trend.

More "double-digit runs" gallimaufry.  And isn't this exactly what the Tigers have done over the last two years?  "Alarming trend?"  

More like "dominant personality trait" to me.

24. Giants (30): Pablo Escobar is showing signs of getting turned around. But not first baseman Travis Ishikawa.

It's Pablo Sandoval, Phil.  Not Pablo Escobar. 

Unless the corpse of Columbian drug lord Pablo Escobar is now playing third base and occasionally catching for the Giants.

But Sandoval was sure hitting like a corpse to start the season.  Ba-Zing!!!

(Book Corner:  Read Killing Pablo by Mark Bowden.  Good book.) 

28. Athletics (23): Scoring runs is a bigger issue than the performance of a young pitching staff, which hasn't allowed an opponent to score in double digits.

Hey, Phil made a funny.

Phil Watch: I Was Going To Leave It Alone

And then I took about 3 1/2 seconds and thought about it.

First, some context for early season Phil.

What do we know about Phil this baseball year?

We know he's chosen his two players to follow this season to fall back on when column ideas dry up during the course of the year in Chris Carpenter and Joe Mauer.

Again, you almost have to admire the process.  It's so college student writing papers for 100-level courses.  Get a bunch of filler for a couple of subjects that you know about and spread it thin.  Pump in 20% new research and presto!  Paper done in record time.

Last year was Frank Thomas and Kyle Lohse.  See.  He fulfilled the "local angle" requirement with Thomas being an ex-White Sox player and Lohse playing in the Cubs' division.  This year, Phil's found a way to tell us 8,000 times that Carpenter's performance has "playoff implications" and he's typed "sacroiliac joint" 8,002 times in columns relating to the dreamy Mr. Mauer.

So, we here at Phil Watch have skipped such dippy repetitiveness.  Plus, we haven't even done a Power Rankings For Morons this year.  We promise to get to that Monday.  On that note, for a truly funny MLB Power Ranking, check out Larry Dobrow over at CBS Sportsline.  That's good stuff.  

But this Sunday, Phil tells us that hitting for the cycle is a "growing trend" and gives the grand revelation that it probably has something to do with the new, quirky ballparks.  Eureka!    

Further down comes this nugget, though:

Tough to dig out: This may really turn out to be a crazy season. Research by writer Gerry Fraley shows that slow starts carry a bigger impact than you might think in baseball's wild-card era.

Since 1995, when the wild card was added, 161 teams have had losing records through 10 games. Only 21 of those teams recovered to reach the playoffs. That's a 13 percent chance.

Boston, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Cleveland, Arizona and Milwaukee were among the teams starting this season 4-6 or worse. Imagine the angst this factoid could cause in Red Sox Nation.

Holy Smokes!  Phil does attribution!  It's a new dawn in America!

He's most certainly covering his ass here, though.  You know, just in case the research proves to be unbelievably wrong.

But let's take it at face value.  Sounds impressive/daunting/neat-o, right?

Well, no.  

In those 14 seasons, we've had some perennially bad teams by and large, teams that have patently refused to field competitive teams based largely on their own incompetence, bad drafting, stupid contracts and just general weirdness.  

The Pirates, Royals, Devil Rays, Orioles, Rangers, Brewers, Tigers and Nationals/Expos come to mind and all those teams finished under .500 the vast majority of the time since 1995.

The research to precisely figure out the numbers would take too long for me (I got crap to do before going to work) but it would be safe to say that just keeping it at those eight teams and fiddling around with the MLB.com standings on about April 11 each year, you can see it to be largely true.

Now, let's say those eight teams were below .500 through April 11 about 10 of those 14 seasons.  

And now revise Phil's number (through Fraley) of "161 teams" and reduce that to 80 teams (161 - (8 teams x 10 seasons)).  That cuts the 161 teams to 80 and doubles the percentage to 26%.  

And that's just taking the consistently bad, not even the teams that are usually around .500 or teams that are recently good (the Cubs) or recently bad (the Giants).

But all this is rather frivolous and besides the point because the argument against such cute comparisons is stupid in the first place.

Why?  Because in the sample size, you're putting the 2009 Boston Red Sox into the same pool as the 2003 Detroit Tigers.  It's like putting a marathon runner into an Iron Man competition with Aretha Franklin and seriously discussing odds on who will win.  It's a colossal waste of time.  

So, since Francona chose to go with Javier Lopez in game eight of the season against the A's instead of sticking with Papelbon for a second inning, causing the team to drop to 2-6 instead of a possible 3-5.  They won the next two games, putting their 10-game record at 4-6 instead of 5-5 and placing them into Phil's (through Fraley's) "under .500" pool.  

Pack it up, Boston fans.  13% chance.  You lost game eight of the season.  Your year is done.

See.  It's just stupid. 

For further illustration on the inherent dopiness of it all, I would like to give attribution to Jesse Spencer of the New York Daily News: 

Since Major League Baseball went to a six-division alignment and expanded the playoffs to four teams per league, 27 of the 104 teams to make the postseason have done so after sporting a losing record in June or later. This includes half of the playoff teams from the last two years - last season's Cubs, Phillies, Rockies and Yankees, as well as the 2006 A's, Dodgers, Padres and Twins all were under .500 at some point after two months of the season had elapsed.

Which do you see as a better indicator of success after being under .500 at some point of the season?  June and later or after 10 games?

Let's mash them together.  Since 1995, if a team is under .500 after 10 games, they have a 13% chance to make the playoffs.  But of the teams that made the playoffs since 1995, 26% of the teams had a losing record in June or later.

If you can present an argument with even a scintilla of credibility w/r/t the 10 game model, you win my undying affection.

 

Phil Watch: What Ifs

Flagship Phil this Sunday chronicles the death of Nick Adenhart.  

Basically, it's a recycling of the 12,868 articles written late last week by others about the odd amount of tragedies that have happened to the Angels over the years.  Shocker!

As least Phil didn't write nonsense on par with Randy Youngman of the OC Register.  Mr. Youngman thinks that the Angels can be inspired by tragedy the same way Loyola Marymount was 'inspired' by the death of Hank Gathers.  Criminy.

Just a few nuggets this week from Phil, all taken from Phil's Whispers.  He keeps his ear to the ground...

The Cubs were very surprised that Rule 5 pick Donald Veal pitched well enough in spring training to stick with the Pirates. He pitched in and out of a big mess in his big-league debut.  If Veal gets it together, the Cubs will regret losing this wild lefty with stuff. 

Do you really give points to a guy that get out of jams entirely of his own making?

He gave up...oh, heck.  Just see Veal's inning for yourself.

It was 8-1 when he came in.  He promptly gave up a dinger to Molina and walked three.  It's like giving credit to a guy who pees all over the kitchen floor but had the common courtesy to mop it up.  He's still a kitchen floor urinator after all is said and done.

Oh yeah, in Spring Training, Veal pitched 14.1 innings, walking 15!  And gave up 8 earned runs.

So please tell me who from the Cubs' 40-man roster should have been left unprotected for the Rule 5 draft instead of Donald Veal.  28 year-old slappy-hitter Sam Fuld?  Crap.  I forgot.  Sam Fuld is still a viable prospect in Phil's world.

Veal, in the last two years in Double-A, started 57 games.  He had a 4.77 ERA with  a 1.56 WHIP, averaging five walks per 9 innings.  He's just a guy who happens to be a lefty and hasn't shown an ability in four years in the minors to hit the strike zone.  That does not spell 'regret' in any book even if he does happen to become productive.  

And he made the Pirates roster.  That's just one step up from receiving a 'participant' ribbon.

The Dodgers' Albuquerque rotation — Eric Milton, Shawn Estes, Jeff Weaver, Miguel Pinango and Eric Stults, before Stults was called up Friday — has more big-league experience than their big-league club.  That wouldn't be a bad place for the Angels to seek short-term help. 

Eric Milton, Shawn Estes, Jeff Weaver and Eric Stults.  Those four guys have never been used in the same sentence as "quality short-term help."

Wait.  I just used them in a sentence that way.  And that's the only way they ever will be from this point until the end of time.  Yes, give up a mid-level prospect for one month of that badness.  

The Yankees and Mets will wish they had signed Derek Lowe instead of A.J. Burnett and Oliver Perez, respectively.  The Dodgers will miss Lowe more than they seem to think.  He was just as good as CC Sabathia down the stretch last season.

Umm...the Mets signed Perez (a terrible signing by any measure) after Lowe picked Atlanta.  It wasn't an either/or.  And there was no sign from Lowe that he wanted to pitch in the American League again at his age.  None.  

He's 35 and got a four year deal at $15 per.  The Dodgers currently have these commitments through 2013.  McCourt has been screaming "poor man" from the highest mountaintops for the last few years and has a gazillion guys hitting prime arb years soon (not to mention the oodles of bad contracts to deal with.  See:  Schmidt and Pierre, not to mention the $17.8 million left on the Andruw Jones contract).  Please tell me how the Dodgers could have committed that money to Lowe and still remained solvent ("in this economy...")?      

On the Mets' option.  Jerry Manuel's weird.  He's just an odd bird.  And when Lowe was making a decision, gauging the Mets' commitment to Manuel probably played into that.  Also, nobody knows how Citi Field is going to play.  The dimensions are the same as Shea but the foul territory has been dramatically reduced.  That could spell trouble for pitchers, especially ones like Lowe who essentially pitch to contact.

First Edition of Power Rankings For Morons this week!  Just posted. 

Phil Watch: I Throw Up My Arms

If a sportswriter plans to write an evaluation of a shift in a team's roster towards pitching and defense, you'd think that the end product would be filled with correct facts and stuff of that nature, right?

Well...you know.  This is the Chicago Tribune.  Only yesterday, Vaughn McClure wrote an article asking, "Is coming of Jay Cutler to Chicago Bears heaven-sent?"  And Rick Morrissey (BRETOA3 participant) called the Jay Cutler signing a bad move.  So...

But it's refreshing to know that Phil still possesses the ability to write something even more stupid than those.  At least those guys were simply making judgments.  Wrong judgments but merely judgments all the same.

Phil, in evaluating the Tigers roster moves, makes wrong judgments AND gets basic facts wrong.

Let's get started.

This time last spring, when the buzz around baseball was the muscle in the Detroit Tigers' lineup, some of us rejected the hype.

Courtesy of South Side Sox

Phil rejected the hype with extreme prejudice!  Oh...wait.

You don't overcome a flawed, fragile pitching staff and second-division fielding with a collection of hitters. Teams almost never slug their way to titles. The Tigers have realized that, and that's why Gary Sheffield isn't with them anymore.

Thank you, Captain Obvious.  

And read that again.  Using that logic, teams should dump all of their aging sluggers.  Just write that Leyland and Sheffield didn't like each other, Sheffield wouldn't have shut up about playing the field so they dumped his mouthy, bad fielding ass.

The Tigers aren't competing for anything this year.  They're going young, trying different things, will be extraordinarily active at the deadline and that's why they dumped him.  Write that.

General manager Dave Dombrowski has given manager Jim Leyland a team that will do a much better job catching the ball...

Dombrowski started retooling the Tigers' defense with the signing of fielding-first shortstop Adam Everett and the trade for catcher Gerald Laird. Those moves set Brandon Inge at third base, where he played when Detroit went to the 2006 World Series, and moved the error-prone Carlos Guillen to left field.

Adam Everett?  Great fielder.  And one of the worst offensive players in baseball.  I mean, he's absolutely terrible. 

Laird?  He's the definition of average behind the plate while forcing two guys into the lineup when you include Inge on a regular basis who are well below-average hitters.

And Guillen in left?  Phil predicts that to go well? 

By writing off Sheffield as $38 million poorly spent, the Tigers create a revolving door at DH. Guillen may get most of the time there, but Magglio Ordonez also will fill that hole sometimes, with the consistently underrated Marcus Thames getting the outfield starts.

BAAAAAAHHHHH!!!!  Marcus Thames throws crap leather at a wildly prodigious rate.  Really.  How does a major league baseball player have a -29.3 UZR150?

If he qualifed, Thames would have been the second-worst fielder in all of baseball last year, behind only Brad Hawpe's superlatively crappy -47.9.  That's all fielders, folks.  Not just outfielders.  

Guillen and Thames at the corner outfield spots is Phil's answer to a better Tiger defense.

Jeff Larish, a left-handed hitter who has hit 67 homers in his three full minor-league seasons, takes Sheffield's spot on the roster. The corner infielder can start at first to give Cabrera a chance to get off his feet as the DH.

And struck out 318 times while hitting .255 in 'three full minor-league seasons.'

...Newcomers Edwin Jackson, who was Tampa Bay's No. 5 starter last season, and Rick Porcello, a 20-year-old who hasn't pitched above Class A, join new closer Brandon Lyon as the key guys.

My.  God.  Fernando Rodney was named the Opening Day closer five days ago.  Five!  Read the wire reports, Phil.  

Porcello might be the best pitching prospect to enter the majors since Mark Prior. He has a great collection of pitches, including a 12-to-6 curveball and a hard sinker, and he commands the strike zone.

Is that a joke?  I don't have the time to do all the lists but Porcello was the 7th-best pitching prospect in Baseball America's top 100 list THIS year.  7th-best.  And that leaves out every other year since 2002.  

Tone down the hyperbole.  He had a really good first year in the minors last year, had an admirable GO/FO rate but sure didn't miss a lot of bats.  

"I think he's ready," Dombrowski told the Detroit Free Press. "I think he'll do well. If he has some tough times — every pitcher does — I think he's mature enough to handle it. … He has a pitch that can help get him out of jams — a very, very nasty sinker."

What do you think he's going to say?  Dombrowski has no other options.

Porcello won't be alone in learning the ropes. He's joined by power reliever Ryan Perry, who was pitching for the University of Arizona at this time last season. Dombrowski cites "an electric arm" and mental toughness as reasons for throwing him into the fire alongside Porcello.

See above.  Perry has pitched 13.2 innings of professional baseball.

"Are we right?" Leyland asked. "The easiest thing is to say they're not ready. The way I look at it, they deserve to be on [the team]."

Unlike the addition of Sheffield after the World Series season, these are changes with shelf life.

See.  Not one mention of the tough road ahead this year.  It's a patchwork team getting oodles younger.  Also, not one mention of the Josh Anderson acquisition, a guy who plays great defense, has stolen 40 or more bases in each of the last five seasons and the reason they released Sheffield.

Let's end on the traditional note.

National.  Baseball.  Writer.