April 28, 2008

Phil Watch: PRFM, Part Quatre

Let's plow through Phil's latest game of darts as he blindly moves teams up and down the power rankings irrespective of the previous week's play.
There's a vague feeling that Phil compiled the list late Sunday (includes the Rays sweep of the Red Sox).

There's also a palpable feeling that Phil also found out that baseball statisticians keep tabs on catcher efficiency in throwing out potential base stealers. Today's offering is like when a four year-old learns a new word and finds a way to use it in every sentence for a week. We'll mark it with a (*****).

First zone rating and now catcher efficiency? My mind is awhirl in transient nodes of thought.

Let's see in this article how he incorrectly and/or randomly applies his new-found arbiter of baseball success or failure.

1. Diamondbacks (1): This is the third week in a row for Arizona atop our fictional standings, and why not?...One of the hidden keys to their fast start: Third baseman Mark Reynolds, who is hitting .264 with seven homers and 22 RBIs; he and first baseman Conor Jackson have been among the NL’s best with men in scoring position.

Yet Justin Upton is one of Phil's offensive candidates for the early MVP. I fully understand how painfully stupid dissecting Phil's weekly column can be. He's like Mike Murphy in many ways, a guy who has a job because...well...he's always had the job.

Both talk about 'hidden' things like nobody else has ever thought of them.

An exercise: Is Carlos Quentin an early favorite for the AL MVP?

Justin Upton: .333/.376/.578, 144 OPS+, 5 hr, 14 rbi, 3 errors in right field, 0 assists.

Carlos Quentin: .288/.435/.562, 166 OPS+, 5 hr, 21 rbi, 1 error, 1 assist.

You make the call. I really like Quentin. MVP? No.

And anyone who thinks Reynolds and Jackson are some kind of 'hidden' keys doesn't watch baseball and aren't fulfilling job descriptions.

7. Mets (3): Catcher Brian Schneider shouldn’t have to buy many meals for himself on the road. The Mets are allowing fewer stolen bases than any team in the major leagues—a welcome change from the results in the Mike Piazza and Paul Lo Duca eras.

*****

This would be mildly impressive if the Mets hadn't played two-thirds of their games against teams in the bottom seven of stolen bases. And it's not like Schneider is throwing out a crapload of potential base stealers. He's 3-6. Casanova - seeing a third of the time - is 2-3.

Is this really more relevant than Reyes' .272 OBP or Delgado 'curious' power outage (until yesterday) and .208 average? Of course, we know that Reyes just needs to up his fun quotient.

10. Cincinnati Reds fans (NR): The Big Red Machine isn’t coming back any time soon, but at least the leadership tandem of new GM Walt Jocketty and Dusty Baker provides some hope for the future.

If Dusty's wife ever becomes barren and the Baker family wishes to have more kids, Phil will gladly volunteer to be a surrogate.

11. Angels (9): Remember the early concern about Francisco Rodriguez’s lack of velocity? He somehow found a way to earn seven saves in an 11-game stretch.
Pretty impressive.

Some people find out new information after stating something and correct themselves. He had a sore ankle. It was widely covered. His velocity was back up even before Phil first wrote this crap.

And the Angels go into Boston and Detroit this week and take two or three from both. Verdict?

Drop 'em two spots.

$20 says Phil will never mention Erick Aybar this year, probably the best young shortstop in the game.

15. Marlins (16): Hanley Ramirez is a great player. This is anything but a solid team, despite what the standings indicate. Only Pittsburgh has gotten weaker starting pitching than Florida, among NL teams, and the Marlins often exacerbate their problems with erratic fielding. The power hitting of Ramirez, Mike Jacobs and Josh Willingham has hidden many flaws thus far.

Well fuck, why's Fredi Gonzalez your NL Manager of the Year with that early review?

18. Mariners (19): Erik Bedard returned strong on Saturday against Oakland. The M’s lost 21/2 games in the standings while he was out, but the saving grace was that it was to the A’s, not the Angels, who have had problems of their own.

I'm acutely aware of how pissy and miserable my reviews are sounding...so I'll continue the motif.

PROBLEMS?

Joe Saunders and Ervin Santana are both 4-0 and both have ERAs below 3! I think they've compensated for the temporary loss of Lackey pretty well.

And the Angels are tied for the second-most wins in baseball. What are these problems?

19. Blue Jays (7): Frank Thomas could get the last laugh on J.P. Ricciardi’s surprising decision to eat almost $8 million in salary. Toronto lost its first five games after the show of force by the Jays’ front office.

Recycled crap. Again. Saving $10 million next year by not signing a soon-to-be 40 year-old DH. Stupid, reactionary, surface analysis.

24. Padres (20): Gentlemen, start your baserunners. No team is easier to run on.

*****

26. Reds (27): Would the Cubs trade for Ken Griffey Jr. and move Fukudome to center field? There are whispers that Jim Hendry is looking for a left-handed-hitting outfielder and it doesn’t figure to take long for new Cincinnati GM Walt Jocketty to trade Griffey or Adam Dunn to open up a spot for Jay Bruce.

So the Reds should trade Adam Dunn because he's a bum and blocking a center field prospect even though Dunn plays left field and Corey Patterson with his .286 OBP in the leadoff spot should stay?

And he's a bum but a last place team should trade him to a first place - and Phil's favorite - team? And wouldn't that mean everybody's new favorite Cub, Reed Johnson, wouldn't have a position? Maybe it's a veiled reference to the idea of benching Soriano.

Christo confused.

30. Giants (32): Closer Brian Wilson has quietly been a bright spot.

Tim Lincecum: 4-0, 1.23 ERA, 36 strikeouts in 29.3 innings.

Jonathan Sanchez: 2-1, 3.54 ERA, 36 strikeouts in 28 innings (1.50 ERA in last four starts).

Not stories. Brian Wilson. Story.

Everybody and their mother thought the Giants would be epically bad. Early on, they're not.

Heck, they might only lose 90 games.

28. Nationals (30): When Wil Nieves hits a game-winning home run, you know the worm is turning. Taking two out of three from the Cubs could get Washington off the mat.

Cub fan logic. A team is considered good if they play well against the Cubs, mainly because it's the only time most Cub fans see other teams. It's their only barometer.

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