Phil Watch: Nothing To Report

It's been quiet here at Phil Watch for the last two weeks.

And there has been good reason for it.

Phil's been wandering into the world of 'acceptable' of late.

And I'm still picking my jaw up off the floor after reading his offering last week when he mentioned Fangraphs.com to support his analysis of Kyle Farnsworth moving to the rotation!

Read that again. Phil mentioned a Fangraphs piece to support his argument.

He knows it exists! And he's using it!

Now, today, he lists the best and worst fielders in the game using John Dewan's Fielding Bible and UZR (and not Range Factor!) as the sole determiners. Sole...as in only.

It's a good list. A right list. A proper list (with only minor bumps).

This is a monumental achievement, a game-changer, an earth-shattering temporal shift in the space-time continuum.

If this trend continues, I fear the raison d'être of Phil Watch may become moot.

Très triste.

But, as always, this could merely influence our understanding of future stupidity. He must continue to follow the trend.

If he doesn't, we return to this moment in time - the place where Phil knew certain things and decided to ignore it. Ignorance, in many ways, can be forgiven. Willful neglect is an entirely different ball of wax.

But for now, kudos to Phil. The Tribune had some stuff in the sports section over the last two weeks that may have contributed to a better understanding about baseball-type things.

Phil Watch: Slim Pickings

When you're picking your kickball team and you get down to the last two people, it usually doesn't take much thought.

You just take a guy and get on with starting the game.

What you don't do is treat the decision like it's the Lincoln-Douglas debates.

They're the last two left for a reason.

Let's get started.

Potential difference-makers still on the baseball market

The Angels signed Bobby Abreu, the outfielder the Cubs and so many other teams passed on, one year ago Friday. He proved to be a difference-maker, helping Mike Scioscia’s team to a first-round victory over the Red Sox [team stats] after winning its fifth American League West title in six years.

Wild exception to the rule. Try to name another. And if you say Kyle Lohse, I'm going to crap my pants. My gastrointestinal health is in your hands.

The Angels gave him only a one-year contract worth $5 million.

And then went out and signed the 36 year-old, bad fielding outfielder to another 2 year/$19M deal. Couple that with signing Matsui and the Angels are doing everything they can to harken back to the Gary Gaetti/Von Hayes days. Ain't gonna be a fun year for the Angels and, by extension, the North Side offices of Phil Watch.

There are similar deals to be made in the 2010 market, even as equipment trucks start to head out for camps in Arizona and Florida. The Twins’ fine-tuning has been impressive — the additions of Orlando Hudson and Jim Thome solidified them as the AL Central front-runner

— but here are some more players available who could have even more impact:

Johnny Damon, who last was seen helping the Yankees win the World Series.

Damon fell to the last few guys to be picked for kickball for a lot of reasons.

1. Scott Boras

2. Turned down a 2 yr/$14M deal from the Yankees

3. Didn't respond to a one year/$6M deal from the Yankees

4. He's 36 years old.

5. He plays brutal defense.

6. Fourth-worst outfield arm in the game last year.

7. Can't play center anymore, lowering his value even further if put at a corner relative to the league.

8. If put in the DH slot, he's essentially a replacement-level player relative to the league

9. Bill James net baserunning from 2006-7 = +70. From 2008-09 = +28

10. Hit 24 HRs in a stadium with the highest HR park factor in 2009. Teams after him now were in the bottom half.

11. His Win Value in the last four years: $13M, $13M, $13M and $13M. He was paid $49.6M for $52 M worth of production. At 36, while he's a candidate for sustaining for such just-above-average success, he's also a candidate for seeing a decline.

I like Johnny Damon. He could easily still be a guy who can contribute...something, I guess. But at $8M per, a number that seems like what he's holding out for, I'd probably move on as well, especially since in-house options on every team mentioned in the Damon rumors can put up similar numbers at a fraction of the cost (except maybe the Tigers, a team Phil doesn't mention at all).

Jermaine Dye, whose disappointing second half in 2009 has caused talent evaluators to act as if his rock-solid 2008 totals (.292-34-96) were put up in 1998.

I like Dye as well. But he's also 36, has become a bit lumbering, plays atrocious defense and has a .334 OBP the last three years.

Oh, and those talent evaluators are probably very aware about something else related to the last three years and his atrocious defense.

Dye, from 2007-09, was the third-worst defender in the league when evaluating ALL positions in the game according to UZR. Only Brad Hawpe and Adam Dunn were worse.

Russell Branyan, who should have been more receptive to re-signing with the Mariners, whose general manager, Jack Zduriencik, gave him a chance to increase his at-bats.

Word is that he was very receptive to returning to the Mariners. It was the Mariners that quit talking to him after the Winter Meetings, when they decided to acquire Kotchman instead.

He wants two guaranteed years for the first time in his career. At 34, it's reasonable to want that after hitting 31 homers last year, bad back or not. Seems to be a critical time for Branyan, a guy that has never played on a full-time basis in his career before 2009. He wants a payday while getting enough contract time to prove he can still be relevant. It may be asking for a bit much but I can see the thinking. Won't get it but I can see the thinking.

Damon, seen by MLB executives as a victim of agent Scott Boras’ high demands, is surprised he still doesn’t know where he’s going to camp.

"I’m coming off one of my better years," the 36-year-old left fielder said in a recent radio interview. "I feel wherever I go, I’m going to help the team win more games and (have) a great shot to be in the playoffs and win the whole thing,"

Well, I'm wrong. Damon said he can still play. Line starts behind the Yankees, fellas.

Damon hit .282 with a .365 on-base average for the Yankees and scored 100-plus runs for the 10th time.

Phil needs to tell the world how much Damon'a ability has to do with runs scored instead of his place in the batting order and, most importantly, who was hitting behind him.

Please tell me, cuz I need to know. Jimmy Rollins scored 100 runs last year and he had a .296 OBP.

He clearly had lost a step, however, as his stolen base total dropped from 29 to 12. He looked exposed throughout the playoffs, as if he was going to miss a fly or make a baserunning mistake, but he made all the plays.

Just a thought here. Damon has lost a step. We've established that with his Bill James numbers. But another reason for the low SB total, and I'm just spitballin' here, could be that he played in a lineup that scored a league-leading 915 runs in 2009 and hit ahead of Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez the entire year. Why attempt to steal a base?

The guess here is he can make enough plays to make a difference in 2010. He appears headed to the Tigers, but the White Sox ought to stage an intervention.

What's "a difference?" This is what I hate most about writers like Phil. They throw out vague terms like that. Quantify it.

Imagine Damon in the Sox leadoff spot and Juan Pierre as the No. 2 hitter — or the other way around. Can a rotating DH including Mark Kotsay, Andruw Jones, Omar Vizquel and Jayson Nix outproduce Damon? And what would be the harm in having 23-year-old Jordan Danks spend time with Damon? They seem to be the same kind of player.

Danks throws like a girl as well?

Dye’s continuing unemployment relates to an unflattering statistical analysis of his outfield skills and his reluctance to accept a role as a DH or extra outfielder (the Cubs pursued him before turning to Xavier Nady).

Cripes! You just answered your own White Sox question! If he won't DH or be a fourth outfielder, then who are the Sox going to dump? Quentin, Rios or Pierre?

He’s not even coming up in rumors these days but could help several teams, especially the Reds (their top left field option is left-handed-hitting Chris Dickerson)...

And what's wrong with Chris Dickerson? He was repeatedly named the best athlete in the Reds' organization by Baseball America, walks like crazy (13% walk rate in the minors and majors), plays great defense, swipes bases at an efficient clip and has a little pop. He's nothing special but at $400,000 and Wladimir Balentin backing him up (also at $400,000), the duo could easily outperform Damon at 1/10th of the cost. CHONE has Dickerson at a 2.0 WAR for 2010 (exactly average - and "average" is a more rare thing than perceived) and Balentin at 2.4 WAR. Damon's at 3.2 WAR according to CHONE and is asking for $8M or a multi-year deal.

Fangraphs has one Win worth $3.65M for hitters in 2010. You do the math.

...and Giants (they have Mark DeRosa in left and Nate Schierholtz in right). He could help the Red Sox as a fourth outfielder and insurance policy behind David Ortiz [stats], but it’s not clear how interested GM Theo Epstein is.

So where does DeRosa go? They just signed him!

Branyan, like Damon, could improve the White Sox’s DH spot. He strikes out a ton but delivers long balls — 43 in 563 at-bats the last two seasons — and the Sox haven’t added power after sliding to sixth in the AL in homers. He could fit on almost any team in a bench role but fits best in the AL, where he would be an instant upgrade for the Indians, Athletics and Rangers.

One by one:

Sox - they have 12,000 guys already rotating through the DH slot right now and Ozzie doesn't want a DH-only guy. Konerko's at first. Didn't Phil hear? It's been in the papers. Like, recently.

Indians - Cleveland's rebuilding. Hafner's at DH and LaPorta will play first, a guy that would have been a #1 prospect in most systems (and was in the Brewers' system) if not for Carlos Santana.

Athletics - Barton starts at first with Jake Fox backing him up, both making $400,000 and both can only play first without crapping all over the field. Jack Cust is DHing, a guy who's hit 84 HRs and walking 309 times over the last three seasons. He re-signed for $2.65M.

Rangers - Chris Davis at first, also playing for $400,000. Vlad at DH. Bit more upside with Vlad, don't ya think?

There. See. If Branyan signs with someone, someone else loses at-bats. Who gets jettisoned?

Why would any of these options be a good one for Branyan? No at-bats to be had. And why would any of these teams sign him?

Phil seems to have this idea that Branyan can't field. He can, especially at first. Good enough anyway. How about a NL team? $20 bet he signs with the Marlins.

His .340 OBP over the last three years is serviceable. His .238 average is not given he's struck out at a 32% clip as well over that span. Basically, he's a much like walky Jack Cust with a bad back.

Branyan could be a good buy-low opportunity like last year, just not with ANY of the teams Phil mentioned.

Then there's Whispers - ear to the ground...or Google. Six of one...

It’s amazing the Yankees haven’t gotten more questions about Derek Jeter’s contract, which expires at the end of 2010. New York players and reporters trust general manager Brian Cashman, who has told everyone it will be dealt with after the season, as the Yankees handled the Alex Rodriguez situation two years ago. . . .

Before this, Phil included Jeter's name along with Pujols, Howard, etc. as guys that will be seeing huge extensions soon.

When the Yankees discuss an extension for Jeter after the 2010 season, he will be going into his age 37 year. Um, Jeter will not be getting a "huge extension" at 37. Sorry.

Second baseman Felipe Lopez might be as confused as any free agent. He hit .310 with 38 doubles for the Diamondbacks and Brewers last season and has gotten the cold shoulder. Are the Cubs better off with Jeff Baker, Mike Fontenot and Andres Blanco?

Lopez hasn't signed because, for the most part, GMs aren't stupid. Lopez was atrocious at the plate and in the field in the three years previous to 2009. It's called at contract year.

Another guy hit .317 in a 2008 contract year. His name was Aaron Miles.

. . . Diamondbacks third baseman Mark Reynolds is discussing a lucrative, long-term contract after shattering the single-season record with 223 strikeouts last season. Joe DiMaggio had 369 strikeouts in 13 seasons. .. . .

First, both sides are looking at only a two or three-year deal. Nothing huge.

Strikeouts are bad, according to Phil. Reynolds strikes out a lot.

Reynolds has struck out at a 37% clip over the last three years. But Russell Branyan is a desirable chip for oodles of teams according to Phil even though he strikes out at a 32% clip. In fact, Branyan struck out 149 times and didn't play after August 28.

3.9 WAR for Reynolds last year at age 27 with the deal being talked about to cover the rest of his arbitration years. No dollar numbers have been publicly bandied about but two and $16-18M or three and $22M would be a bad thing for that production?

Because he strikes out a lot?

Phil Watch: Dusty And Crede Updates

Why do I do this to myself?

Why spend this much time going line by line, countering the ramblings of a baseball columnist the likes of Phil?

The short answer is I don't know.

Today we get our first updates on Dusty Baker and Joe Crede with sprinkles of Scott Rolen for 2010.

If I were asked to name favorites from this weekend's offering, I don't think I could. It's just chockablock with Philisms and utter wrongness. Wrongness even when compared to what Phil wrote just a week ago.

Let's get started.

Cincinnati Reds make shrewd move signing Cuban pitcher

Aroldis Chapman could make them a contender under Dusty Baker

Some think the Reds just took the biggest risk in franchise history. I think they made the shrewdest acquisition of the offseason.

Um...every reaction I read kinda congratulated the Reds for landing Chapman with a few reservations about the reported overall size of the contract. Then people pretty much congratulated the Reds for the structure of the deal when the details came out:

Chapman gets $1.5 million of his signing bonus when his contract is approved by Major League Baseball, $1.5 million each Nov. 1 from 2010 to 2013 and $1.25 million each Nov. 1 from 2014 to 2020.

–Chapman gets annual salaries of $1 million this year and next, $2 million each in 2012 and 2013 and $3 million in 2014. Within five days of the 2014 World Series, he must decide whether to exercise a $5 million player option for 2015.

Flexibility abounds year to year with those annual commitments.

So...these "some people" Phil is talking about allude me.

Cuban lefty Aroldis Chapman, signed away from the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Angels and other suitors at a cost of $30 million, is a difference-maker, and there were darn few of those available on the free agent market.

Whoa! Let's cool our jets a bit here. He's 21 and hasn't pitched in the minors let alone the majors yet. Rave about his potential, sure. But let's keep it in the potential realm until he actually does something.

Give general manager Walt Jocketty and the team's owner, Bob Castellini, tremendous credit for investing so heavily in a guy who would have been ranked 1A to Stephen Strasburg if he had stood alongside North American talent in last year's draft.

Gonna need a source on this one.

One of baseball's most veteran scouts told me in March, immediately after the World Baseball Classic, that Chapman was the best pitching prospect he had seen. And Chapman had not been sharp for Cuba in Mexico City.

Well hell! If one scout says so! A ton of scouts, not just one, said Billy Beane was the next Mickey Mantle. Scouts are known to exaggerate.

Chapman has a triple-digit fastball, a power slider that whispers Steve Carlton and a verified passport that shows he turns 22 next month. He walked away from the Cuban team during a tournament in Europe over the summer.

And the body of a young Marlon Brando with the swagger to match!

Geesh. Clean up after yourself, Phil.

Jocketty has made a strong career out of finding bargains, first as an assistant to Sandy Alderson with the A's in the Bash Brothers era...

Bah! Recent events tell us much about the Bash Brothers era. Jus' sayin'.

...and then with the Cardinals...

Bah! Bah! Strike two!

...where his deals for Chris Carpenter and Jeff Suppan put a World Series ring on Albert Pujols' finger. He was able to do the Chapman deal because it required only $1 million in salary in 2010, the rest coming from a budget for amateur scouting and the payroll flexibility that will be created when Aaron Harang comes off the books in the fall.

I know! Jocketty compiled a spectacular team in 2006 that bulldozed their way through the NL Central with an 83-78 record. One team was above .500 outside of the Cardinals in the division that year with the Astros at 82-80. I tip my hat to the Cardinals for winning the World Series, but...it was a bit of a fluke.

Under Jocketty, the Reds already had made more progress than most realized. Their 27-13 mark after Aug. 22 was the best in the National League last season, and it was done while ace Edinson Volquez was out after Tommy John surgery.

I LOVE that he used the "after August 22" date because the Reds just lost two straight to the Pirates on August 21 and 22. And the fact that they lost three of four to the Nationals just a week before.

But let's look at the Reds opponents "after August 22".

40 Games (27-13 record):

Pirates - 11 games - 10-1 record

Astros - 6 games - 5-1 record

Rockies - 4 games - 0-4 record

Marlins - 4 games - 2-2 record

Brewers - 3 games - 3-0 record

Braves - 3 games - 3-0 record

Cubs - 3 games - 1-2 record

Dodgers - 3 games - 1-2 record

Cardinals - 3 games - 2-1 record

So...10-1 against the 99-loss Pirates. 5-1 against the terrible Astros. That's 15-2 against two unmitigated disasters of teams. Take that out and the Reds went 12-11 against the rest of the schedule. Oh, and the Padres were the second-best team in the NL during that team with a 23-14 record. The Padres were and are a bad baseball team.

In another context: 18-2 against teams that finished over .500 and 9-11 against teams over .500.

They're gonna be awesome!

Jocketty said in November he felt the Reds were "close" to being able to contend against the Cardinals and Cubs (and maybe the Brewers) in the NL Central. It's not far-fetched to think Dusty Baker will make that happen in 2010.

Just a few days ago, Phil declared the Cardinals the "Class of the Central" and have a "Huge Edge" after the Holliday signing. This was the now-famous Win Shares argument that has become legendary at the offices of Phil Watch. He lists the Cardinals with 230 Win Shares, the Brewers with 180 and the Cubs with a "meager" 166. The Reds are never mentioned.

The Reds are never mentioned because the Reds, using Phil's formula of combined WS for the eight starters in the field, four starting pitchers and the four best relievers are as follows.

Let me reiterate. This is Phil's system used to make the case only one week ago that the Cards are the class of the NL Central and uses only 2009 numbers to do so. I don't see why we can't:

Votto, Phillips, Janish, Rolen and Herandez - 24+19+4+5+11 = 63

Dickerson (the best in WS), Stubbs and Bruce = 7+9+5 = 21

Harang, Cueto, Arroyo and Bailey = 7+7+13+5 = 32

Cordero, Masset, Rhodes and Herrera = 13+10+7+5 = 35

Total = 151

I'd say that's more "meager" than the Cubs' 160. You?

Remember that the Cardinals were at 230 and the Brewers at 180.

So...in Phil's world, for 2010, the signing of a 21 year-old guy who hasn't thrown a single pitch yet on American soil, the only move the Reds made this off-season, will be worth at least 59 Win Shares, a number (210) that would put them exactly in the middle of the Cardinals and Brewers, thereby "contenders."

Albert Pujols led the majors last year with 39 Win Shares.

Zack Greinke had 26 Win Shares and Tim Lincecum had 22.

Bronson Arroyo and Johnny Cueto were solid for 30-plus starts last season.

Arroyo had a 5.38 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP in his first 18 starts. Bad.

Cueto had a 6.72 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP in his last 17 starts. Real Bad.

But yes. "Solid."

Homer Bailey, who like Cueto is 23, stoked the imagination by going 6-1 with a 1.70 ERA in his last nine starts, a night-and-day reversal from previous form (6-12, 7.05 ERA in his first 28 starts).

4-0 with a 2.13 ERA against the Pirates in those nine starts. Bailey was good to finish the season. He seemed to figure something out. But I'm gonna need a little more before declaring Bailey even a league-average ML pitcher.

Before those last nine starts:

6-12 with a 7.07 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP in the majors

12-12 with a 3.85 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in his last two seasons in the minors. Not exactly stellar.

With Chapman, Volquez and 2009 first-rounder Michael Leake, a huge winner at Arizona State, the Reds may have the best stable of young pitchers in the majors.

They certainly have pitching. At least in an ideal world. For 2010 - which is the premise of this column - they do not have a good collection of starting pitching. Chapman will probably not initially break with the club out of Spring Training. Volquez had TJS and isn't expected back until late summer. Cueto was fucking abysmal for the last four months of the season. Bronson Arroyo is Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang's time is over, my friend. We discussed Bailey.

The Reds were 11th in the NL in scoring last season but hope to improve with Scott Rolen at third base. Joey Votto and Jay Bruce should be hitting their big league strides and Chris Heisey, a high-energy player who could fill holes in left field and at the top of the order, could provide a huge lift. The bullpen is already the best in the Central.

Rolen? Oh, I forgot. Phil loves him sum Scott Rolen. He said in 2008 that the acquisition of Rolen by the Blue Jays made them a contender.

Heisey is a name to watch. But let's look over that offense. I count four players in Hanigan, Stubbs, Heisey and Janish that are poised (hey, I used a Phil term) to grab starting positions in 2010 that haven't even seen 350 major league at-bats in their careers.

Good. Luck. With. All. That!

This is a solid team, and Chapman proves its commitment to get better.

If you were going to make an argument that the Reds are going to contend in 2010, here's how you do it (and it has nothing to do with Dusty).

Check out the Reds' individual UZR/150s. Third in baseball behind the Mariners and Rays. That's just absolutely stellar. They catch the ball. Couple that with what should be a decent enough rotation and a good bullpen and the Reds will stop people from scoring runs at an above league-average rate.

It's too bad they'll score runs at a below league-average rate. That smells like a .500 team to me. Five games over with a little luck and a couple of breakout performances. Five to ten games under with a couple of injuries. In other words, exactly what they were last year.

Contender?

No.

Catch the ball, please: There's a lot of talk around Boston about the Red Sox's newfound emphasis on fielding, thanks in part to the increasing ability of senior adviser Bill James and others to quantify defensive performance.

Mike Lowell's lack of range and poor health has made third base a weakness since 2007, and there's no doubt Adrian Beltre will be a huge improvement. Beltre has averaged a plus-18.4 Ultimate Zone Rating the last two years, compared with Lowell's minus-14.4 last year.

(ka-lomp)...

...

...

...

...

(Three hours later) Eeeh, my head. What time is it? Seems like I've been unconscious for days.

The last thing I remember is reading Ultimate Zone Rating in a Phil Rogers column. What that real?

...Holy Crap! It was!

Well then. I'll ask. Why wasn't that mentioned in his "Reds Are A Contender Now" instead of chronicling the gross inexperience of the offense and the injured/previously bad/fluke year/hasn't pitched in America - ness of the rotation relating to 2010. Well...I did that while Phil said they will be good because they're young, full of energy and scrappy. That's really it.

I should point out, though, that Phil only almost got it right. UZR is context-neutral. It only shows what one player did over a season no matter how many innings he played at a particular position.

UZR/150 takes that number and extrapolates it out to a full-time season (150 games) at the position, making it able to compare between two or more players.

BUT...Lowell isn't a slouch at third. Last year, his defense was obviously affected by his glove thumb injury as he put up a 15.6 UZR/150 in 2008 and had numbers of 8 and 7.7 in the two years before that. Beltre's better, maybe historically better. He might be one of the top-three best third basemen to ever play the hot corner according to some.

The Red Sox also believe they will get a huge lift with Mike Cameron in center field and Jacoby Ellsbury in left. It's hard to believe given Ellsbury's athleticism, but the Red Sox ranked last in the majors in center field UZR last season. The Red Sox were 25th in left, where Jason Bay was the regular.

And Phil's Whispers. Ear to the ground and all that crap.

The Orioles are talking to Joe Crede -- a curious development given they already have two right-handed-hitting third basemen in Ty Wigginton and Garrett Atkins and a solid DH option in Luke Scott . They're trying to move their surplus for relief pitching. ...

Who does Phil think is playing first base?

Wigginton or Atkins will with the other playing third - both badly, BTW. Atkins has a career minus-5 UZR/150 at third while Wigginton has an abysmal minus-16.4 (Crede - career 10.4).

And both are iffy in every sense of the word, offensively. Crede could easily be plugged into the mix because of that. His back's made of glass but it could be a good fit on a part-time basis at a minimal commitment (Crap! That's two Philisms!).

The Phillies are taking former White Sox reliever Ehren Wassermann to camp. Brad Lidge's knee surgery could help him win a job out of spring training. ...

Ehren Wassermann update?

A Christo update along the same lines. Today, I had meatloaf for lunch. It was the first time in six months that I've eaten meatloaf.

Why do teams hate the arbitration process? The Diamondbacks' Conor Jackson is getting a raise after hitting .182 in 2009.

Jackson dealt with Valley Fever all year, making only 110 plate appearances.

In each of his three years before 2009, Jackson had an above - .800 OPS. In fact, in 2008, his Wins Above Replacement (3.4) was valued at $15.4 million, squeezed between Justin Morneau (3.5) and Ryan Howard (3.3) for the leaders among first basemen. He was paid $400,000.

He was given a $50,000 raise over 2009, from $3.05 million to $3.1 million, basically the absolute minimum raise a guy could get if he went to arbitration.

A player, if he goes to arbitration, can only see a decrease in salary worth 80% of his previous contract ($2.44 million). That's the floor.

The D'backs avoided going to arbitration because Jackson had a very good chance of seeing a bigger raise than he got, probably a ceiling of $3.8 million given it would have been his second arb year (he avoid arbitration last year as well and had a potential ceiling of $3.65 million then). His three-year comparables to the rest of the league were somewhat favorable to Jackson.

With this sentence, Phil believes that a player who unfortunately catches an infection that utterly saps your body of strength and hangs around for a prolonged period of time should see a dramatic decrease in salary no matter what he's done in the past when healthy. I'd hate to see how Phil would run a health insurance company (Christo gets political!)

That's the only conclusion I can come to given the raise was a measly $50,000 and the D'backs probably saved a few dollars by not going to arbitration.

That or Phil simply was being Phil and didn't do any research.

Probably a fusion of the two.

There are plenty of reasons to hate the arbitration process (i.e. - a player becomes bad instead of sick/injured).

Jackson is not one of them.

Phil Watch: WTF!

Oh, Holy Shit!

This piece of poo made it to a newspaper.

When I read the opening salvo, I thought it was curious to do such a piece at this point in the off-season.

Then I saw #12!

And then I knew. Then I followed everything that's been rolling around in Phil's melon over the last few weeks. Then I knew the impetus of this column. Then I knew that Phil needed to proclaim from the highest peak that he doesn't think the White Sox rotation is a strength. In fact, at #12, their rotation, in Phil-world, is merely a hair above league-average.

So, he can talk about the rotations around baseball but we know what he's really talking about.

For this list, Phil uses a "simple statistical analysis comparing wins, ERA, innings and K/9 in 2009" to rank his rotations. My head hurts thinking about the dippiness of those statistics to do anything. My head hurts even more thinking about analyzing each slot step by step.

So...we'll put it into context. This weekend, Phil discusses the Cardinals' Holliday signing and says it makes the team the "class of the NL Central" based on Bill James Win Shares, again using only 2009 numbers to determine this:

For comparison's sake, group eight starters in the field, four starting pitchers and the best four relievers from each team. Then evaluate them strictly on their 2009 performance based on Bill James' measure of Win Shares. The Cardinals are at 230, led by Pujols' best-in-the-game rating of 39 and Holliday's 25.

The Brewers are at 180, thanks to the contributions from Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, along with valuable pitching additions Randy Wolf and LaTroy Hawkins -- and Melvin probably will add at least one more arm from baseball's overstocked bargain bin.

The Cubs total a meager 166, with Derrek Lee (24) and new center fielder Marlon Byrd (20) the most valued players.

That's mildly interesting as a reflection of 2009. And Phil's using Bill James again. That's a move in the right direction.

But a question. Why not use Win Shares to analyze the rotations? ERA? Innings? Wins!!??

I could also ask why Phil didn't use Phil-Math this year but I think he took a sufficient enough beating over that stupidity to stop any impulse wanting to revisit it.

I'll tell you why he didn't use Win Shares. It doesn't allow him to make the wrong case that the White Sox rotation is the 12th-best rotation in the majors.

Here is Phil's list of rotations (top 4 in each). Click here to see the reasons cuz I ain't chronicling them.

1. Yankees - Sabathia, Burnett, Vazquez, Pettitte

1. Giants (tie) - Lincecum, Cain, Zito, Sanchez/Bumgartner

3. Phillies - Halladay, Hamels, Happ, Blanton

4. Cardinals - Carpenter, Wainwright, Lohse, Penny

4. Rockies (tie) - Cook, Jimenez, De La Rosa, Francis (?)

6. Red Sox - Lackey, Beckett, Lester, Matsusaka/Buchholz

7. Tigers - Verlander, Scherzer, Porcello, Galarraga

8. Mariners - Hernandez, Lee, Snell, Rowand-Smith

8. Cubs (tie) - Zambrano, Lilly, Dempster, Wells
10. Rays - Shields, Garza, Price, Niemann
11. Braves - Jurrjens, Hanson, Lowe, Hudson
12. White Sox - Peavy, Buehrle, Danks, Floyd
13. Angels - Weaver, Santana, Kazmir, Saunders

Bah! I literally spit out my coffee when I first read this. Show your hand more, Phil. Yes, you don't like the White Sox. I can see not liking their offensive chances. But rotation? Overall, it matches up well with anyone and is certainly better than the Rockies, Cubs, Mariners (Snell and Rowland-Smith?), Tigers, Braves, Cardinals (Lohse and Penny?) and Rays staffs.

So...since Phil didn't use Win Shares to calculate such things because it's too inconvenient for the real reason he wrote the column, I shall do it for him.

Combined Win Shares for the top 4 in each rotation based on 2009 numbers:

1. Giants - 59 (using Sanchez, not Bumgartner)

2. White Sox - 58 (using Jake Peavy's five-year average before 2009 - 15)

3. Yankees - 57

4. Phillies - 57

5. Red Sox - 55 (assuming the Red Sox get 10 Win Shares from the four-slot)

6. Mariners - 55

7. Cardinals - 52

8. Rockies - 52

9. Cubs - 49

11. Braves - 48 (using Tim Hudson's three-year average before 2009 - 13)

10. Tigers - 46

12. Angels - 46

13. Rays - 41

Can you assume a 15 Win Share from Peavy? I think so, especially when you consider the fact that Buehrle and Danks both had 16 Win Shares last year and the fact that Peavy's injury had nothing to do with his arm last year.

So we have Phil using Win Shares when it suits his argument and using Wins, ERA, Innings and K/9...when it suits his argument.

Pick a lane, Phil.

Phil Watch: Didn't Take Long

The Sox sent John Ely to the Dodgers in the Juan Pierre trade.

Ely was rated the 14th-best prospect in a shallow White Sox farm system.

Where's John Ely from?

Chicago's own Homewood-Flossmoor.

Oh, boy.

I feel a puke-tastic column on the way.

Phil Watch: Second Half Of Double Dose (x 2)

I can't keep up!

Phil has become downright voluminous all of a sudden.

And it's all stream of consciousness in some attempt to capture the landscape of the winter meetings.

Problem is, though, that stream-of-consciousness columns should offer something new. It should, in the end, be greater than the sum of its parts. It's not. So I'm not doing today's offering.

Expect this little nugget:

--Teahen: With Alex Gordon at third base, he was a borderline nontender candidate when the White Sox traded for him last month. His three-year, $14 million contract was a surprise in the chilly financial climate, especially considering he never drove in more than 69 runs in his four full seasons in Kansas City. With widely respected prospect Brent Morel perhaps only a year away from Chicago, Teahen probably will be a first baseman, left fielder or even DH before this deal is up.

I wasn't ga-ga over the Teahen acquisition. Nobody was.

But the contract potentially buys low. With arbitration rules stating that a player can make no less than 80% of his last contract, Teahen would have, IN THE LEAST, in some theoretical world, made $2.86 million this year. He would have, in the real world, made a marginal increase over his $3.575 million salary last year due to the amount of playing time he saw and the fact that he wasn't absolutely brutal. And he most likely would have seen another marginal increase over that next year because Teahen again won't be absolutely brutal.

Just guessing, Teahen without a contract and going year-to-year to arbitration would have garnered a salary of a little over $4 million in 2011 while becoming an unrestricted free agent after that. So...the Sox were, in the least, going to pay Teahen about $8 million anyway. With a bounce-back year more in line with his 2006 and 2007, he could see about $9-9.5 million overall, especially if his power numbers significantly increase because arb judges love that shit. And then he would become a free agent in 2012.

The Sox signed him to a three-year/$14 million contract, averaging $4.67 million a year.

With the Cell's park factor, Teahen should see a moderate tick up in his power numbers and, with some luck and/or big improvement due to the fact that he's right smack in the middle of his prime age years, he has possible upside.

For that possibility, the Sox got three years of Teahen locked in at a fixed, reasonable price while buying out his first free agent year. And maybe more importantly, his contract is absolutely moveable to a contending team at the deadline looking for depth should the Sox need to do that.

This was a good deal for both sides. AND IT WAS A DEAL LESS THAN $15 MILLION!!! FOR THREE YEARS!

HOW THE FUCK IS THIS IRRESPONSIBLE????

RBI's? Really? Lazy, lazy shit.

The Royals offense, every year that Teahen played in Kansas City, was one of the worst offenses in the league. Can't drive in what's not in front of you.

But if we must:

Teahen's overall career line: .269/.331/.419

Teahen's career line with RISP: .285/.366/.440

Mystery player's overall career line: .254/.304/.444

Mystery player's career line with RISP: .278/.337/.455

THAT TOOK ME LESS THAN A MINUTE TO LOOK UP!!!

In 2006, he had a 1.046 OPS with RISP, third-best among third basemen.

In 2007, he had a .964 OPS with RISP, sixth-best among third basemen.

.686 and .628 followed in 2008 and 2009. That's awful.

So...if you believe in things like clutch-hitting and all that crap, the Sox just got a guy who has proven to be a good hitter with RISP in the majors. He's also proven he can suck.

What do these numbers mean to you? .654, .851, .746, .887, .862, .692

Those are Joe Crede's OPS totals with RISP over the last six years and our mystery player.

Oh yeah, and Joe Crede has driven in more than 75 runs exactly once in his eight full-time seasons.

Retort?

Again. Three years. $14 million. Not a bad deal at all.

CUBS FAIL IN EFFORT TO LAND GRANDERSON

INDIANAPOLIS -- Oops, they did it again.

A Britney Spears reference? That's the 45,587th time that's been used in the history of slothful sportswriting.

The Cubs let Curtis Granderson get away, and this time they did it right before our eyes. It didn't seem to bother them too much, and it will not bother their more mathematically inclined fans, but it should.

Phil still hasn't said, in all his blatherings over Granderson, whether Starlin Castro was worth trading. He hasn't said that it should be done. Ever.

And he hasn't addressed how the Cubs were going to match the Tigers' demand for a ML-ready center fielder to replace Granderson now without dealing Castro.

If you can't do that, you shouldn't be writing about it. Worse yet, you shouldn't be getting all uppity about it.

You can scoff if you want. You can point out his troubles against left-handed pitchers. You simply can hide behind the high asking price if it makes you feel better.

Hey, Granderson's worth it in many ways. He was worth $14.3 million, $30.2 million, $17 million and 15.2 million over the last four years in Win Value. He has four years and $36.75 million left on his contract. It's back-loaded, of which the Cubs already have too many, but he'll play over his contract even with moderate regression.

He IS brutal against lefties. And his defense has shown decline the last two years. -9.4 UZR/150 in 2008 and 1.6 in 2009. That's dramatically down from the superlative numbers he put up in '06 and '07.

But he's good. Very good actually, with some concerns.

Granderson isn't Willie Mays, but the reality is he was the most intriguing card on the table for the Cubs this winter -- one of the most intriguing in the last seven years -- and, just like in the 2002 draft, the front office swung and missed.

I love 'intriguing'. You can wiggle out of labeling somebody 'intriguing' if he falls flat on his face pretty easily.

Name a trade, Phil that gets players the quality of Max Scherzer, Austin Jackson and Daniel Schlerth to the Tigers through the Cubs. If you can't, what's to talk about here?

Scherzer is the real deal, not a Randy Wells (average ML pitcher) and Andrew Cashner (hasn't pitched above AA) type.

Austin Jackson is a center fielder that's ready to go, something the Cubs don't have at all and couldn't have went through another team without giving up Castro. Even Castro probably wouldn't have been enough given he hasn't played a full season above A ball yet.

Daniel Schlerth is another real deal the Cubs don't have anything close to. A first-round pick just last year, he saw 39 innings of work in the minors, compiling a 1.13 ERA, giving up 21 hits while striking out 60.

So...here's three guys the Tigers got in return, all major league-ready and the Cubs don't have one guy that's close to any of them.

Castro's 111 at-bats in double A doesn't really equate, does it? And Phil won't say they should trade him!

Barring unforeseen questions about medical reports, the 28-year-old center fielder from the University of Illinois-Chicago and Thornton Fractional South High is going to the Yankees in a three-team trade that also sends Edwin Jackson from the Tigers to the Diamondbacks.

The Yankees didn't need Granderson as badly as the Cubs. They already have Derek Jeter to be their leader and ambassador.

Why in the hell does it matter that the Cubs need him more?

But Brian Cashman nevertheless valued Granderson highly for both his play and his off-the-charts intangibles, so he pulled the trigger on a deal that cost him 22-year-old center-fielder Austin Jackson and pitchers Phil Coke and Ian Kennedy.

Charts are tangible measures of something. Intangibles can't be measured. Just saying.

And unless Phil is ready to say the Yanks aren't re-signing Jeter after next year, this is a non-issue in the world of idiotic 'leadership' discussions.

The Cubs do not appear crushed about losing the chance to land Granderson but had spent almost a month trying to figure out a way to get him.

Would you be more happy if they wept openly?

And with Granderson off the board, they must continue a search for center-field alternatives to overachiever Sam Fuld.

I thought Sam Fuld was the embodiment of the ideal Cub?

This wasn't as bad as passing on Granderson in their disastrous handling of the 2002 draft. Then-scouting director John Stockstill invested $6.94 million in Bobby Brownlie, Luke Hagerty, Chadd Blasko, Matt Clinton, Brian Dopirak and Justin Jones -- all of whom were taken before the Tigers got Granderson with the 80th overall pick.

Ahhh, hindsight. The Cubs took Lavalroe Cash with the 380th pick of the 1999 draft. 22 picks later, the Cardinals took Albert Pujols.

I can play this game all day.

But this might be more painful because Granderson has used four full big-league seasons since to establish himself as one of the brightest voices in the game. He's not a bad player either, with career lines of .272/.344/.484.

Give the Yankees credit for overlooking Granderson's platoon differential (.570 OPS vs. left-handers since 2007, .940 vs. right-handers) and 142 strikeouts a year. He has flaws. But he's a winning player, an all-around player who will become an even more respected face of the game in New York.

Tell me how a Cubs trade for Granderson works? I can play this game all day as well. And have.

...Having seen Granderson in action, there was little doubt that he quickly would have become a clubhouse leader and a huge favorite with Chicago fans. Assuming he could maintain his level of play -- maybe even improve it after collaborating with new hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo -- Granderson could have been Mr. Cub for the next decade.

This is my favorite part for two reasons.

A: Phil has seen Granderson play! He's in an exclusive, secret club!

B: Rudy Jaramillo reference #485 for Phil in the last two months.

Hendry declined to speak publicly about Granderson Tuesday, calling him "somebody else's player." But sources indicated the Cubs had tried unsuccessfully to make this deal happen.

Sources indicate? This is common knowledge! Phil's been talking about the long-term attempts for months and every Chicago outlet and their mother has reported the short-term attempts.

Not exactly inside info.

A Cubs source said Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski was clear from the start that he wanted a majors-ready center fielder and young pitching. The Cubs had young pitchers of interest in Randy Wells and Andrew Cashner -- although Hendry didn't want to move them -- but Fuld wasn't what Dombrowski had in mind as the center fielder.

Third-to-last paragraph before Phil mentions the Tigers' primary demands.

If Fuld WAS what Dombrowski has in mind for center field, Dave wouldn't have a job about three seconds after pulling the trigger on that deal.

Hendry confirmed he tried to work three-team deals to meet the Tigers' center field need. But to get the guys Dombrowski considered to be of Jackson's quality (tops among them the Pirates' Jose Tabata) would have cost the Cubs shortstop prospect Starlin Castro, and Hendry could not make the puzzle pieces fit.

Still hasn't mentioned if he would trade Castro. So Spineless.

Can't even say Castro's worth trading even as any package involving Castro still wouldn't have gotten it done. Just because the Cubs wanted to trade for Granderson doesn't automatically mean the Cubs should have gotten Granderson. Didn't have the goods. That's the column. Not this. Preuse that minor league system and write about that. Crap. I forgot. That takes real journalistic work. So Phil settles for this. Par for the course.

He walked away from a second chance to put Granderson in the city where he could do the most good. It's a chance that won't come around again, at least not until it's too late for Chicagoans to cheer for him in his prime. That's a shame.

Was there this huge groundswell of emotion among Cub fans desiring to root for Granderson because he grew up here that I missed?

I'll just rewrite this column. Granderson is a good center fielder. The Cubs need a center fielder. The Cubs have a bad minor league system with no ML-ready players. Other teams do. The Cubs did not get Granderson because of this.

There. So much shorter and so less painful.

Phil Watch: Double Dose...Again

This Phil offering is not only classic Phil, it's classic Off-Season Phil.

It's why we exist here at Phil Watch.

Before we get started, I like to say that I'm dubious over whether Phil is actually in Indianapolis. For a national baseball writer to not have one reference to anybody else in the league while everybody else in the league is so conveniently in one area is spectacular.

He's in a hotel room in Hammond. That way, he can get a Skyway receipt to expense the whole thing.

Let's get started.

INDIANAPOLIS -- Take heart, Cubs fans. There's no taking the easy way out under Crane Kenney.

The man accountable for everything from overseeing the baseball staff to raising ticket prices insisted Wednesday the Cubs won't "run away from our problems" on his watch. The determination is nice, of course, but wouldn't it be better if they stopped creating so many of them?

Fine! I'll bite. What problems? The Cubs have many but what does Phil think the problems are?

In the second month of the Tom Ricketts era, there's an odd sense of disconnect between the Cubs and the business of winning baseball. They continue to reel and stumble trying to regain footing lost with the Milton Bradley signing and Mark DeRosa trade a year ago. And, guess what? The situation doesn't seem likely to clear up any time soon.

Oh, Sweet Fancy Moses! DeRosa? This again?

First, what's the hurry? We're only at the dawn of the free agency period right now.

Second, and most importantly, this free agent class isn't really that good.

It's akin to the NBA right now. The 2011 free agent class is infinitely more talented than this one. Here's an example. Randy Wolf was considered to be the fifth-best free agent (not just pitcher) on the market this year before he signed with the Brewers. Randy. Wolf.

John Lackey is far and away the best pitcher in this class. If he were a free agent in 2011, he'd be, at best, the fifth-best pitcher behind Halladay, Lee, Beckett and Webb with Javier Vazquez also in the mix.

Holliday and Bay are shiny, pretty toys to swoon over. Yes. They're good players. But if they were to be free agents in 2011, they'd have to compete with Joe Mauer, Carl Crawford, Victor Martinez, Carlos Peña, Adam Dunn and Jayson Werth to name a few. That doesn't bring into account a number of players with upside like Derrek Lee, Konerko, Lilly, Kuroda and Street while having oodles of players with options that may not be picked up like Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins and Aramis Ramirez.

In short, they have no competition this year. Some teams are going to sit on their hands, clear some payroll and wait for the infinitely better class just around the pike.

The Cubs, having just changed ownership and already have $120 million committed, had better be one of those teams if they're smart business people.

Look at the Cubs payroll commitments for the future. Where is their any wiggle room?

We would like to report Tribune Co. hadn't gotten so much of Ricketts' money that there was enough left over for the new owners to authorize general manager Jim Hendry to ring in the new regime with a signature acquisition.

Name a 'signature acquisition.'

But the Cubs haven't entered the bidding for Roy Halladay and seemed happy to let Curtis Granderson go to the Yankees.

Oh, holy hell! How many columns has Phil wrote extolling the virtues of Starlin Castro and Andrew Cashner. They are their only trade chips.

Both the Blue Jays and Tigers rightly have said they wanted major league-ready talent in return. Both those guys aren't CLOSE to being ready.

Phil is living in Score caller world. Other baseball teams should just give the Cubs what they want for crap in a bag.

They instead have allowed themselves to become laughingstocks of the winter meetings with tireless attempts to trade the unwanted Bradley and appear on the verge of making another decision just as baffling to their fans as the DeRosa trade -- becoming the first team in 20 years to move their spring training base from Arizona to Florida.

I suppose I have to discuss DeRosa.

There's no position where he fielded adequately. He was coming off a career year and the Indians offered something the Cubs didn't have: Organizational pitching depth.

Here's what the Cubs got back:

Chris Archer: 6-4, 2.81 ERA in A ball, giving up 78 hits in 109 innings, striking out 119

John Gaub: 2-2, 2.25 ERA seeing relief time in AA and AAA, allowing 17 hits in 31 innings while striking out 40.

Jeff Stevens: 1-3, 2.03 ERA in AAA, giving up 35 hits in 57 innings while striking out 61.

Pretty nice little haul.

DeRosa had a $7.6 million Win Value this year while being paid $5.5 million. Meh.

More importantly, he put up a .250/.319/.433 line for a .752 OPS, his worst mark since 2004.

Most importantly, he saw his walk rate dramatically decrease (from 12% to 8.4%) and had a strikeout rate nearly equal to his career-high (23.5% with 121 Ks, the most of his career). Wrist injury. Sure. But his numbers in Cleveland before the injury weren't much better.

We here at Phil Watch liked DeRosa, especially as it seemed he was paying more attention to getting on base. But he's 35 now and can't field.

Let's stop talking about Mark DeRosa, shall we?

Nothing's official, and Mesa, Ariz., did agree Wednesday to spend $750,000 to improve the existing facilities, but all signs point to the Cubs soon announcing they have turned down the proposed new complex there to jump to one in Naples, Fla.

People have been bitching about the shittiness of that complex for years and they did nothing.

I talked to Kenney, the president who represents one-stop shopping for Ricketts in his role as adviser on all matters, about the situation Wednesday.

Here's what he said about Mesa building the two 5,000-square foot buildings to house batting cages: Nothing. Nada. Zip. Not a word.

Oooooohhh, now we have the impetus of such vitriol. Kenney was a little short with Phil and Phil didn't like it.

The Cubs will deny this, and I can't say it with 100 percent certainty, but I believe the decision already has been made to abandon the 45-year relationship with Mesa. Carlos Zambrano, Alfonso Soriano and a generation or two of Starlin Castros...

I'm getting queasy. JHC. Castro has one good year in A ball and we're talking about him like he's Derek Jeter (Oh, we'll be getting to terms like Jeteresque...)

...are about to find their rear ends on buses headed across Alligator Alley and in heavy traffic on Interstate Highway 75 headed to Tampa or quaint places like Lakeland and Kissimmee.

The 30 worst traffic cities in America. Phoenix is #14. Tampa isn't on the list. Just saying.

Kenney insisted it is Ricketts' intention to do what is best for his team.

But no matter how many justifications you hear about the Florida move -- heavier air for pitchers, a short hop to the Dominican Republic and elsewhere in Latin America, etc. -- the reason will be that Ricketts wanted his base of operations in Florida, not Arizona.

So?

Oh, and the developers driving the Naples deal, the Chicago-based Esmark Inc. and the Florida-based Fifth Avenue Advisors, will be sure to add plenty of sweeteners to their offer, including some specifically targeted for the owners. I understand this isn't criminal activity; it's business.

SO?

But, please. Don't sell a sweetheart land deal as progress for the Lovable Losers.

Who has said it's progress? Nobody! Just that they might be moving.

Personally, I wouldn't mind the move. I have Marco Island connections. But I'm not a 28-year-old free agent with a .295 career batting average and six teams interested in signing me. If I was that guy, I'd be far more likely to have attachments to the Phoenix area than the southwest tip of Florida. Those things matter when you are recruiting players.

Who's he talking about?

The only guy that would fit the mold that I can find is Carl Crawford, a 28 year-old guy and a free agent in 2011 with a .295 career average and he just spent the last eight years of his life IN TAMPA!

Really? Who's he talking about? Is it hypothetical?

When I asked Hendry for his Arizona-Florida preference Wednesday, he gave as noncommittal answer as possible -- no doubt the wise one when your owner is leaning to the remote location that fits his needs, if not those of the fans who flock to see games in the Cactus League.

So Cubs fans will now see them in the Grapefruit League and in a better facility to boot.

What's the real problem here? It's a month and a half of fake baseball. A glorified stretching session. Who cares?

What's with the pissy attitude?

"There are a lot of intangibles that as a general manager I don't have a right to weigh in on," Hendry said. "There's going to be a huge commitment of dollars, land. Those things are way out of my area of expertise, and they should be. Tom has to do what's best for the organization."

Based on the 83-78 record in 2009, a little better roster might be "best for the organization." But Ricketts didn't bring fresh payroll capital to give Hendry back the flexibility he sacrificed signing Soriano, Kosuke Fukudome and Bradley for $214 million over 15 seasons in his first three off-seasons under manager Lou Piniella's spell.

Holy Crap! He's all over the map! First it was Bradley and DeRosa and now it's Soriano, Fukudome and Bradley.

What a freaking stream of consciousness with absolutely no direction!

After allowing Rich Harden, Reed Johnson and Kevin Gregg to leave as free agents, Hendry has added only reliever Jeff Gray thus far. It's early, sure, but the lukewarm pursuit of Granderson and free-agent starting pitchers speaks volumes about the internal expectations for a big move.

Reed Johnson? Kevin Gregg! Did Phil watch Cub games last year?

Again, please tell me, Phil. What did the Cubs have to offer up for Granderson?

Kenney stressed the Ricketts ownership is looking at the long haul, not the 2010 season. He insisted it's too early to draw conclusions.

"Jim hasn't stopped working," he said. "Put it that way."

Too much of Hendry's time has been spent trying to get a 25-cent return on the dollar for Bradley. The Cubs simply should have released him last August, after he said he "prayed" games would go nine innings so he could go home.

Or they could try to get something for him. If they can't, THEN dump him.

"And eat $21 million?" asked Kenney. "I have 21 million reasons why we're not releasing him. If there's any prospect we can get back, players who can help us, or save some of the money (to do other things with), why wouldn't we explore that? ... We don't have an unlimited budget."

So the Bradley watch goes on.

Now that's a limp response to a legitimate question.

"We don't run away from our problems," Kenney said. "The fact it's painful doesn't change anything."

Sort of has to a ring to it, doesn't it?

Maybe Soriano will have his 40-40 season in 2010. Maybe Zambrano will win 20 games. But somebody ought to start printing the T-shirts:

Cubs in 2010 -- the fact it's painful doesn't change anything.

What just happened? I'm confused. What was Phil's point?

Personally, I like counting how many questions were posited without once giving an answer to any of them.

Classic Phil. Just classic.

Phil Watch: Double Dose

First, The Chicago Tribune's national baseball writer should really be covering the winter meetings wall to wall in my world.

But alas, the Tribune believes in holding onto their 80 year-old clientele instead of looking five years into the future (or ten years into the past - six of one...) by offering little outside of bland, boring and thoroughly uninformed opinion.

So we get this from Phil during the first two days of the winter meetings (seven of the ten tweets):

Essentially, we readers are supposed to lament along with Phil on the loss of Granderson. It's about him. And thanks for "admit"ting it. Nobody could tell by the eight columns you wrote on Granderson, offering little legitimate evidence that the Cubs are looking to trade for him outside of the fact that Granderson played baseball in Chicago and is a neat guy.

Read the fourth one down. "Granderson would be a good fit for Safeco." Why? To further knock down his power numbers? Can't move Gutierrez off center with the defensive numbers he put up in center. What? Move Granderson to left? That makes him a good fit?

Mostly, Phil WILL be doing a Granderson/Scherzer/Jackson trade evaluation and he WILL mention how Granderson will be a "good fit" for the bandbox that is Yankee Stadium. I want, nay, need to see how he reconciles these two points.

And then we get a Phil column on Monday. The winter meetings open and Phil writes a piece based on one observation/meandering that's rolling around in his head and could have been written anytime over the last two months while backing it up with filler that he's mentioned 12,000 other times. And it's still wrong filler.

Let's get started.

Ken Williams admits he's working on being more patient. He denies, however, that the effort is related to the $60 million waiver claim he made in August on Alex Rios.

It's reasonable to think that the soon-to-be 29 year-old Rios, a guy who put up Win Values of $12.1 million, $18.9 million and $24.6 million over the three years before 2009 was seeing an outlier year, an uncharacteristic season that you don't count in evaluating a guy considering his age.

It was a high risk move on many fronts. His attitude has been called into question. There's been little progress w/r/t OBP. But he plays stellar defense by all accounts and is now in a ballpark more catered to his power output. Nobody in their right mind spends $60 million just to stop a possible waiver claim by the Tigers, which is what Phil is alluding to here (he's done it many times).

Rios responded to Williams' aggressiveness -- or impulsiveness -- by hitting .199 over 41 games. J.P. Ricciardi was on his way out as the Toronto Blue Jays' general manager, but White Sox box scores had to brighten his final days in office.

Are you joking? Ricciardi got fired because of a bevy of stupid moves, mainly Vernon Wells' contract. Phil thinks Rios' $60 million is somehow bad comparatively?

Vernon Wells' contract:

2010: $12.5 million (plus $8.5 million, $25.5 million spread over three years, 2008-10)

2011: $23 million

2012: $21 million

2013: $21 million

2014: $21 million

FULL NO-TRADE CLAUSE

Since Wells signed his big contract before the 2008 season, he's had a total Win Value of $5 million. He's been paid $19 million. Rios signed an extension before the 2008 season. He's been paid $10.135 million. He's been worth $24 million in Win Value. Rios is a little over two years younger than Wells.

You do the math.

Rios' contract is pennies compared to this. Good for Ricciardi. He got rid of a comparatively minor contract when the big elephant is still in the room.

Who is Phil writing for? Morons? People who don't know this shit? Nice target audience.

And now we're taking a 41-game sample to judge a player?

Consider this. Ryan Theriot OPSed .560 from August 20th to the end of the season, a period comprising 38 games.

DUMP HIS ASS!!!!

Four months after the Rios move, Williams was among the last general managers to arrive in Indianapolis for the winter meetings. He took his time driving from Chicago on Monday afternoon, a leisurely journey that apparently was not interrupted by many phone calls from player agents.

Read the newspaper, Phil. Kenny said on every occasion he could that his off-season was in August when he acquired Peavy and Rios. I know Peavy and Rios aren't shiny new toys like the over-priced free agents at the winter meetings but his big moves are done. Sorry if it's not pretty and new.

Williams has let it be known he has limited resources to finish assembling his roster. That's not because he added Mark Teahen, Omar Vizquel and Andruw Jones in recent weeks, while retaining Mark Kotsay, but because he gambled about $115 million on Jake Peavy and Rios over the summer.

Where's the gamble on Peavy again? $49 million over three years left on his contract. He's been worth that exact amount over the last three years...and that's not taking into account a Win Value dollar amount that has been regressively less each year you go back. And the fact that last year was injury-plagued (still had an $11.5 million value last year).

He'll, in the least, be better than league-average in the AL and make back his contract in value. How's that a gamble? If Phil thinks he is, he HAS to make a case. He hasn't.

What about Chone Figgins?

Manager Ozzie Guillen has long lamented a need for both speed and a leadoff hitter. The Angels igniter, a career .291 hitter who has averaged 46 stolen bases the last five seasons, had been the subject of recurring trade talks between Williams and his counterparts in Anaheim.

Because a Chicago team wanted Figgins, that means he should sign here.

Yet Williams took a knee throughout Figgins' brief time on the free agent market, unable to do anything except wish him well after he agreed to a four-year, $36 million deal with the Mariners.

"I don't have any money," said Williams, who projects the Sox's payroll to wind up near $100 million. "I would have loved to (add him), but it didn't work."

Asked and answered. His money was spent in August. Apparently that's not good enough. Not shiny enough.

In a perfect world, Figgins would have played left field for the White Sox. That appears to be the outfield spot they are targeting for an inexpensive addition, with Guillen saying Monday that Carlos Quentin is likely to move to right field, his natural position.

OH MY FUCKING GOLLY!!!!!

Geesh!!!! How many times do we have to go over this?

Figgins is one of the best third baseman in the league. His defensive numbers over the last two seasons have been better than any season Joe Crede (Phil's continuous masturbation material) has ever put up over a full season. Crede's best UZR/150 was 13.6 in 2006. Figgins, over the last two seasons, has put up 13.8 and 18.8.

HE'S!!!! NOT!!!! MOVING!!! OFF!!!! THIRD!!!!!

Sox played their hand when they signed Teahen. Blame that, if anything.

Had Williams not made the Rios waiver claim, he could have turned to prospect Jordan Danks to fill the center field void the Sox have felt since trading Aaron Rowand after the 2005 World Series. That would have left him the flexibility to pursue Figgins or even a run producer like Jason Bay or Matt Holliday.

Danks has exactly 330 at-bats above double A. He's Ready!

Sly Rowand slip-in there. Still catering to meatball Sox fans I see. Since leaving the Sox, Rowand has been worth $44.7 million over four years while playing progressively worse defense. He's also 32 years old.

Rios has been worth $54 million over the last four years while playing much steadier defense and is a little over three years younger.

Take out the outlier years for both (best and worst years over their careers) and Rios has averaged a little over $10 million in Win Value. Rowand? A little over $11 million (full seasons). Rios is still in the heart of his prime. Rowand...not.

Bay's overrated (if the Angels sign him for more than $13 million per for four years, they got ripped off) and Holliday has yet to prove he can hit in the AL while being a Boras client (read: WAY too expensive for what you get).

But Williams believes the 28-year-old Rios will prove to be just as valuable as any of those bird-in-the-bush options.

"We wanted that player," Williams said. "We don't look at (the situation) as a hindrance. We look at him as an answer to one problem we've had for a long time. This guy is a career .280 hitter with power, with speed, with defense. We're happy to have him."

Dispute it...you know...with numbers...or opinions...or something.

Guillen was among those shocked by the limited impact Rios had after coming to Chicago. He says Rios' biggest problem was "everything," specifically citing the pressure Rios put on himself after he was cast aside by Toronto, landing in a tricky situation with a .500 team that somehow pictured itself as a potential force.

JHC! Who? Who pictured itself as a potential force? Every report said this and the Peavy move were building toward the future. Cripes! This is bullshit newspaper writing that only serves as filler. It's crap that made me not waste a paltry 75 cents on a physical paper just on principle. It's just so...revisionist.

Stealing a very winnable division would only have been a bonus. Rios played his first game as a Sox on August 12. The Sox were two games back. Insurmountable!

At the time, it was a move with a double bonus. Win the division and great. Don't and you still have a good, moderately young guy that will play to his contract in value.

The Sox believe mechanical problems with his swing undercut Rios' confidence, putting him in a hole he could never escape.

Guillen said Rios has the potential to deliver 30 homers and steal 30 bases, maybe even 40-40 -- never mind that he has hit those levels only once, stealing 32 bases in 2008. He finished '09 with 17 homers and 24 stolen bases, with his batting average sliding to .247.

So...he's hit those levels and is only 29. Bad thing?

And so...Phil thinks he'll regress even further. Why? Tell. Me. Why?

Can he turn it around?

For Williams' sake, he had better.

The White Sox have the starting pitching to win in the next two or three seasons, but the lineup is an iffy proposition. This would have been a good winter to make an impact move or two had Ricciardi not let Williams solve one of the Blue Jays' problems.

Now the Blue Jays are ready to contend now they've rid themselves of Rios.

We'll be coming back to this. Oh yes! We'll be revisiting this on multiple occasions here at Phil Watch.

Phil Watch: Bring Back Ortman!

I went old school on the Phil pic today.

Feeling nostalgic.

Today, Phil channels his inner Score caller.

"I think the Sox should trade some prospects for Pujols!"

To preface today's Whispers, remember that Phil told Hendry three weeks ago that he "must pursue Ganderson." And in that piece, he said:

"If Dombrowski wants to talk about Carlos Marmol, potentially a closer for the next two or three years, and Starlin Castro, who could have a Shawon Dunston impact and tenure at shortstop, Hendry should be willing. Granderson -- at this point in his career -- is worth paying a huge price to get."

Let's get started.

The Tigers continue to have trade talks involving Edwin Jackson and Granderson, with both situations likely to come to a conclusion at the winter meetings in Indianapolis. The Cubs are serious about Granderson but have made it known they won't give up Carlos Marmol or Starlin Castro. The Tigers instead could ask for right-hander Andrew Cashner and third baseman Josh Vitters. ...

The Tigers could also ask for a Cuisinart rotisserie cooker, a Kindle and a tiger-striped Snuggie as well, all hot holiday presents this year.

First, the Yankees and Angels are in on Granderson as well, two teams with a million more trading chips than the Cubs.

Second, it would have to be SO MUCH more than Cashner and Vitters, the latter proving this year that he's a rather ordinary prospect that doesn't add much to a trade involving a player of Granderson's ability, payroll commitment and age.

Phil will not question Hendry. Never has.

Callis over at Baseball America couldn't have foreseen the stupidity that would ensue in this town when he ranked Castro #1 on this year's top 10 organizational list. Well, he probably did. He's writing from Chicago.

But until Castro shows he can be something other than a bit of a slap-hitting shortstop with a potentially good glove and a terrible walk rate, he shouldn't be untouchable. Not if you can get a guy like Granderson, proven to be one of the best center fielders in the game rather than keeping a possibly decent little shortstop in three years.

Granderson, 28, is owed $5.5 million next year ($8.25M in 2011 and $10M in 2012 with a 2013 club option). In the last four years, he's averaged $19.4M in win value and a 4.9 UZR/150.

I have no idea why the Tigers let Ordoñez's $18M option vest and then turn around and shop Granderson and his $5.5M for next year. But this is a team that has $47.5M committed to Nate Robertson, Jeremy Bonderman, Dontrelle Willis and Carlos Guillen in 2010. They will win no awards for Most Responsible Spending. True. By benching Ordoñez sufficiently enough in 2009, they did avoid the 270-start, two-year trigger (he started 102 games) for the 2011 option of $15 million to be guaranteed, so good for them.

But it's still inexplicable to me why dumping $5.5M Granderson is some sort of priority. Given that, if they deal him, they won't be taking a package with the likes of Cashner and Vitters included. Dombrowski was probably seeing if anyone would blow him away with a ridiculous package. Phil's Cubs package is not one of those.

Scouts from the Tigers and other AL teams are looking at Jake Fox in the Dominican Republic. He hit a combined .326-28-97 between Triple A and the Cubs last season but has nowhere to play. ...

Oh, but hell! If you throw in a 27 year-old guy who can't play the field and had basically one good year, DEAL DONE!

It's absolutely imperative, if you're going to be a national baseball writer, to offer up something that seems plausible, not just possible. If you give simply possibilities, then you're a reporter. And not a good one.

If you think Cashner, Vitters and Fox get you Granderson, you would be mistaken. Dombrowski is still getting killed for the Jair Jurrjens and Gorkys Hernandez for Edgar Renteria trade.

This is not analysis. This is wishful thinking. It's Score caller thinking.

According to figures published by Baseball America, the two best fastballs in the Arizona Fall League belong to Nationals No. 1 pick Stephen Strasburg and White Sox reliever Sergio Santos, the latter a former first-round pick of the Diamondbacks who played infield until 2009.

Sigh. It's not the best fastballs. It's fastballs with maximum velocity. HUGE difference.

Best fastballs would be something combining velocity with effectiveness. This is not that.

Why did the Astros give Carlos Lee a no-trade clause in his deal two years ago? Without it, he could be shopped to the Red Sox, among others. ...

Because they probably had to, kind sir. Lee wouldn't have signed it.

Question why a team would give Lee six years and $100 million. That's legit. He plays bad defense in left, doesn't walk and generally has a crappy attitude about everything. Lee gets his numbers and seems to be fine with that, kind of like a poor man's Albert Belle.

But if anybody is paying a player $100 million, in what world would that player not also demand a no-trade clause? In a weird way, the Astros should be commended for backloading the contract and getting the no-trade clause to expire in 2010. They're not going to be locked into the last two years of Carlos Lee at $18.5 million per year if they don't want to.

So, signing Lee was the original sin. He's been paid $41.5 million by the Astros in the last three years and has played to a $39.6 million value. Pretty much a push in pure dollars. You want more out of Lee, sure. His last three years are at $18.5 million per year so the Astros gave the last three years to Lee at a value he's never reached in Win Values. That's pretty stupid given those last three years are for Lee's 34-36 age years. But again, they're only really exposed to one real bad year and that's next year. 2011 and 2012 are entirely open to the "Trade Lee's Ass" banner at Minute Maid because they can.

See...opinion. That's surprisingly easy. Give it a go sometime.

Brent Morel has shot past Dayan Viciedo as the White Sox's third baseman of the future. He's a natural hitter, which he showed when he joined the Arizona Fall League at midseason and hit .372 in his first 12 games, including an 8-for-11 showing in three games last week. ...

Morel led the AFL with a .435 average in 62 ABs (half-season). That's good.

But is this what we're doing now? We're taking the already stupid projection of a prospect after an AFL performance done in an already short fall season comprised of typically 120 ABs and we're now projecting a prospect who played in half of an already short fall season?

Morel seems like someone to keep an eye on but let's see how he does above class A ball before crowning him the Third Baseman Of The Future. How 'about it? Sound good? Viciedo doesn't look like anything special but at least his numbers were compiled in Double A and it was in his first season in American ball. I think the jury might still be out on any usurping.

I'm sure Phil saw Morel's 25 stolen bases and wet himself but consider this. Adam Dunn stole 24 bases in class A ball in 2000. Let's see how Morel does when he's not facing a 55th round draft pick from Assfuck, Iowa before lavishing praise upon him.

Just some measured praise. Just some.

A's GM Billy Beane is encouraged by pitcher Fautino de los Santos' recovery from Tommy John surgery. De los Santos, a headliner in the deal that sent Nick Swisher to the White Sox, was throwing 95 mph in the Instructional League, according to Beane.

Phil is going to be right about Fautino if it kills him.

Remember. When Phil had an accident in his pants for the hard-throwing righty, he was just a pup who hadn't pitched above A ball.

He's now 24, coming off TJS and has thrown 33 innings in the last two years, none above A ball and 2009's 11 innings were in rookie ball.

And let's look at that "headliner" claim.

Four players were involved: Swisher, Gio Gonzalez, Ryan Sweeney and De Los Santos.

Swisher was THE headliner because he was, you know, a major league player with a track record.

Gonzalez was the original Phil lament and we were offered copious amounts of updates on Gio's progress by Phil. And then it stopped...because Gio was bad. 6.24 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP since arriving in Oakland. He strikes out a lot of guys only when he finds the strike zone. His 5.1 walks/9 would have been the worst in baseball among players with 90 innings or more pitched if Ian Snell wasn't just a tick (.04) worse. His WHIP was the 7th most. With Peavy, Buehrle, Danks, Floyd and Hudson, Gio is no longer part of the discussion in any way, shape or form.

We were told as well by Phil in June, 2008 that if Ryan Sweeney would have been on the White Sox, he would have made the White Sox a better team by helping supplement an aging core. You know, the team that won the division.

Now Fautino is 'a headliner' in Phil's strange recollection. Is everyone a headliner? Seems like a player can't really be a headliner if everyone's a headliner. It's like the Monday Night Football crew calling everyone "Great!" If everyone's great, then the definition of 'great' is no longer valid.

Nice job, Phil. Channel your inner Larry King.