Phil Watch: Let's Dispel A Myth

Why not an end-of-the-year Phil? Why Not?

In a way, Phil is a rock in these changing economic times. A strong ship in the storm.

Nobody holds to such a stubborn ethos more than Phil in the Chicago Media since fuckstick left town.

For evidence, check out Phil's Hardball entry where he continues in his efforts to find a move that Kenny Williams might regret. That one involves the Aaron Cunningham for Danny Richar deal.

See, in Phil World, the White Sox would still field a competitive team with Aaron Cunningham in right if Jermaine Dye were traded. Because in Phil World, a win counts more when a team does it with prospects. It was like 1 1/2 wins when the Marlins won a game last year, completely destroying the rest of baseball with a 125-37 record.

That's the Phil ethos.

Speaking of the Phil ethos, another part of it is paying the top free agents gobs of money only makes you a dirty, dirty team. And your wins only count as half a win, meaning the Yankees with the top payroll in baseball last year only went 45-117. See. More Phil-math.

Using this logic, Phil wrote the perfunctory 'You can't buy a World Series' article Sunday.

Let's get started.

Trying to buy way into World Series not best method

Impatience rarely is rewarded in baseball.

Neither is badness. Seems like the same result to me. Both types are not playing in the playoffs with the fire and passion, but tell me more, Dr. Science.

It happens, sure. The World Series the infant franchises in Florida (1997) and Arizona (2001) won come to mind. But there have been a lot more spectacular failures than successes from teams that spend heavily to get themselves to the top.

Well...there's spending stupidly and above your means and then there's just spending. Let's see if a distinction is made.

Think of the White Sox in the Albert Belle-Frank Thomas years...

I know. Those 49 hrs, 152 rsbi, 48 doubles, .328 average, .400 OBP, 200 hits and 113 runs completely drug down the Sox lineup in 1998, one of only two years he played for them. Fucker. Who dare he? Base clogger.

The Dodgers with guys like Kevin Brown and Darren Dreifort...

Brown was 58-32 with a culmulative ERA below 3 in his time with the Dodgers. Asshole. How dare the Dodgers not foresee his injuries as well? They should have been able to predict that.

And wait a minute! Driefort was the Dodgers' first round fucking pick! They stupidly rewarded one of their own. How is that buying anything?

The Mets in the era of Pedro Martinez, Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delgado...

Yeah. Signing the best player in baseball at the time in Carlos Beltran was soooo stupid. He didn't prove his worth enough when he hit a gazillion homeruns in the '04 playoffs. How is that different from the Red Sox 'buying' Manny for $20 million a year? Results? If we could predict results, why play the games?

And Pedro has been paid an average of $12.9 million over the last four years by the Mets. $15 million in the previous four years by the Red Sox. For a big market team, how is $12.9 million for an aging pitcher who was very recently one of the best pitchers in baseball blowing any budget?

Delgado was traded to the Mets for Mike Jacobs, Yusmeiro Petit and Grant Psomas. Who'd that work out?

And unless I'm a moron (entirely possible), how did these three have any effect on the Mets' bullpen sucking balls the last two years?

The Tigers of the last two years, when they added Gary Sheffield, Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to the mix that had won a pennant in 2006.

Speaking of sucking balls, did Gary Sheffield put on a Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson and Justin Verlander mask and take the mound without me hearing about it? All three are homegrown talent who collectively threw up on themselves every time they threw a pitch. Oh, I forgot. Phil-math means they were actually league-average on the Phil Homegrown Prospect Adjustment Scale.

Even the Cubs, who are yet to get a playoff victory from the purchase of Alfonso Soriano, Ted Lilly, Jason Marquis, Kosuke Fukudome and Mark DeRosa.

Even? Even! Isn't this Exhibit A? And check out the details of those contracts. They're a backloaded mess. All that money and not even one win in the playoffs. Isn't that the entire premise of the column?

And BTW, wasn't the Johan Santana trade the bestest of bestest moves for the Mets last year in Phil's mind? The Mets gave up four legitimate prospects AND paid him $23 million a year for the next 45 years. If that's not buyin' somethin', I don't know what is. How does Sabathia compare to Santana? And how does that fit into this equation?

The teams that have sustained success in the last two decades were built around players who blossomed into stars during the process: the Braves of the 1990s; the Yankees when they won four World Series in five years...there's little comparison to the franchise that won with guys like Bernie Williams, Paul O'Neill, Scott Brosius and a young Andy Pettitte.

WWWWWHHHHOOOOAAAAA!!!!

This is where we stop. He just rambles on from here about how Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira have never led their shitty teams to the promised land, making them crappy leaders.

You know, typical vague garbage entirely dismissive of the players around them.

We stop here to dispel a myth perpetuated by the likes of Phil and Phil-like dopes.

In some fantasy world I have not visited yet, the Yankees won four World Series in five years with a roster completely populated with Yankee prospects. It's a pretty world with sprites, fairies and unicorns where every baseball player plays with the grit, fire and passion of a David Eckstein or Reed Johnson.

But getting back to the real world, Bernie Williams, Derek Jeter, Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera were indeed on the Yankee playoff teams that won four in five. Those are facts.

But...the first championship in '96 had...

Tino Martinez? Bought. Signed as a free agent after being traded to the Yankees.

Wade Boggs? Bought. Signed as a free agent.

Paul O'Neill? Bought. Signed as a free agent.

Four of the five pitchers in the rotation: Jimmy Key, David Cone, Dwight Gooden and Kenny Rogers? Bought. All signed as free agents.

John Wetteland? Traded from the Expos because they couldn't afford him and Yankees could.

Darryl Strawberry, Cecil Fielder, Ruben Sierra, Tim Raines, Bob Wickman, Joe Girardi? All guys who were established stars on the downside of their careers, contributed significantly and were signed or traded for because the Yankees did and nobody else could at that level.

Totally forgot about Fielder.

It doesn't get better. 1998 saw Chuck Knoblauch, Chad Curtis, Scott Brosius, David Wells, Hideki Irabu, Orando Hernandez and Mike Stanton added to the previously bought-or-trade-for list of guys.

1999? 2000? Add Roger Clemens to the previous lists.

I don't know what world exists where Jeter, Posada, Pettitte and Rivera could have won 4 in 5 with league-average talent around them, but I want to visit that world.

Because in that world, the Angels have won eight straight World Series.

Phil Watch: He Had Me At Range Factor

Phil bought a book!

Last week, Phil called the 2009 Bill James Handbook recommended reading.

I had to change my underwear as I had crapped my pants in disbelief.

And then he used a cursory glance at the book to say Chone Figgins may be the most overrated player in baseball because he doesn't hit home runs and was only a +7 baserunner in his accompanying article.

Just forget the fact that he fractured two fingers in the second game of the year and followed that up by pulling his hamstring and was out a month. Oh, and then he followed that up with bruising his right elbow in September. All that and he hit ahead of the #2 position in the order that hit a collective .258 behind him, 5th worst in baseball on a team that won the most games in 2008.

Check out what Bill James projects Figgins to do in 2009. Every team would take a player like that. Just look shit up! There. It's out of my system.

So there was no Phil Watch last week because it just would have been a bunch of curse words and name calling. I'm trying to be a better person.

This week's offering makes for a little more cerebral experience.

Let's get started.

White Sox's Jermaine Dye might be moving on

But whether they involve him being on the team is still a question

Anybody understand what the heck that means? Read that again and please tell me because I don't get it. Outside of possibly NORAD, proofreaders are probably most valuable in this world at newspapers, wouldn't you think?

Paging Jermaine Dye, paging Jermaine Dye … Mr. Dye, please cancel your spring-training reservations with the White Sox and hold for your impending reassignment.

Phil wrote the opening in that netherworld between sleep and awake, the only place where shit like that seems funny.

Oh, fuck it. Let's just get to the goods.

...If you were going to have Carlos Quentin on one outfield corner and Dye on the other, as the White Sox did in 2008, why even consider Viciedo in the outfield?

I will speak slow. Just because Alexei Ramirez happened to play right away doesn't mean Viciedo will. Alexei is 26. Viciedo is 19! And apparently out of shape. Just because Kenny may be open (Kenny quotes I omitted) to trying him in the outfield doesn't even touch the realm of meaning he is going to take over right field on Opening Day 2009. And therefore meaning Dye is going to be traded. See, there are more years after next year. It's called long-term for a reason.

Kenny didn't broach the subject. Somebody asked him about the possibility. Possibility, by definition, means it's possible. And not necessarily right now.

Common sense thinking. It works. I promise.

Years ago, when Williams was the Sox's farm director, he and his coaches turned Carlos Lee from a third baseman into a left fielder in little more than a week's time. The guess here is that's the long-term plan for Viciedo, assuming Josh Fields and Wilson Betemit can hold down third.

Paging Phil Rogers...paging Phil Rogers. Your column is about to get stupid. Paging Phil Rogers...

Quentin should be a fielding upgrade in right field over the 34-year-old Dye, whose 2008 range factor of 1.86 ranked 27th among 30 primary right fielders. So this is the right time to trade Dye.

Phil. Go to the glossary of your new book. It's in the back. Range factor is NOT a spectacular judge of an outfield's ability to field his position at or better than the rest of the league.

ZONE RATING IS! It's a stat that evaluates how a player fields his typical defensive zone compared to the rest of the league. It's all comparabley and stuff, therefore more importanter.

Range factor's formula is (put outs + assists/innings played). Now look that over. In short, if your team's pitching staff is loaded with a bunch of flyball pitchers or tends to pitch more away to right-handed batters or a flurry of other factors, your range factor will be skewed by the number of fly balls you caught. It's not adjusted for anything. It just asks if the player caught the balls hit to him.

And Phil has heard of zone rating. We know this here at Phil Watch. He used it to say Miguel Cabrera was a bad third basemen by third basemen-y standards. What the hoo-hoo?

And if he's in that section of the book and wants to use range factor, turn a couple of pages to the leftfielders! Quentin had a 1.83 range factor, .04 points below Dye. And while he's on the left field page, check out Carlos Lee's zone rating. It's .755, dead last in baseball. Lee's play in left field doesn't buttress anything here.

And an aside here. If range factor is important in Phil's world, where's the column discussing Ryan Theriot's dead-last rating for shortstops? Had to get that in. I'm small.

Dye's slow and not very rangey, but in 272 chances in 2008, he had one error. Quentin, by contrast, had seven errors in 240 chances. Both had five assists. Upgrade?

He has averaged 34 home runs and 95 RBIs in his four years with the Sox. That gives him value to many teams: the Dodgers (assuming they don't re-sign Manny Ramirez), Mets, Braves, Angels (if they lose Mark Teixeira), Rays and Reds, to name six teams that are not believed to be on his no-trade list.

Christo fading. Columnists = Analysts. Reporters = Reportage.

Team-by-team:

Dodgers: They'd have to move/would be asked for Kemp or Ethier, something they wouldn't do for a bevy of players with bigger upside than Dye. With Lowe and Penny gone, they're not letting go of any pitching. Oh, and they already have two players with wildly expensive and not very producey-type contracts in Pierre and Jones in the outfield. How does Dye fit?

Mets: Intriguing, part une. The rumors are out there. But the Sox wouldn't do it without getting a centerfielder in return and the Mets are backtracking on the possibility of trading Fernando Martinez. And Jenks would be involved in that one. See, other teams have needs, too.

Braves: Well, they just traded Vazquez to the Braves and got what they wanted from their farm system in return. I suppose it's possible. Not very probable. It would be the definition of a salary dump.

Angels: No. Dye can't play left and that's what they need.

Rays: Intriguing, part deux. Surplus of bullpen arms and the Sox need it.

Reds: Intriguing, part trois. The names are already out there. Bailey for Dye straight up? Maybe not with Bailey's regression last year.

See. Mets, Rays and Reds. I could have saved Phil some time by not typing in stupid.

Williams might not fill his biggest remaining need—a center fielder/leadoff hitter—with a Dye trade, but should get a lot of interesting offers the next two weeks. By moving Dye, who is due $11.5 million in 2009 with an option for '10, he would be gaining flexibility to sign a free agent or two who slips between the cracks, as he did with A.J. Pierzynski and Orlando Hernandez after trading Lee and letting Magglio Ordonez walk after 2004.

He already has that flexibility. His own paper has mentioned the updated payroll numbers after the Vazquez trade about a gazillion times.

This off-season Williams is doing to his lineup what he did to his rotation two years ago—sacrificing expensive, known quantities to collect multiple options with potential staying power. I didn't like it when he traded Freddy Garcia and Brandon McCarthy (and almost Jon Garland), but the development of Gavin Floyd and John Danks made that gamble work.

Phil owns up to his own dippiness. Kind of. Progress.

But that 'almost' on Garland is a bit of a misnomer. He didn't like it. For evidence, he compared the potential effect of losing Jon Garland to the Cubs letting Matt Clement go. Oh, and there was a 'Ghost of Garland' image in the nut graph. Fun.

The latest renovation of the roster is more appealing, even if many executives believe Williams is overrating Flowers, whom they regard as a serious liability behind the plate. Williams did well recouping the kind of talent he sent to Arizona to acquire Vazquez three years ago (center fielder Chris Young was the headliner).

Vazquez was traded for Chris Young, Luis Vizcaino and Orlando Hernandez.

Vizcaino had a perfectly fine, if unspectacular little run pitching in middle relief for three different teams in the three years since. He's now 34 and coming off a 5.28 ERA campaign for Colorado in 2008.

Hernandez is out of baseball and didn't pitch last year because he's 97 years old.

Young...well...since the trade, he had a great rookie year. Since that year, Arizona has decided he is a terrible lead0ff hitter because, you know, he doesn't get on base. .306 OBP in the majors will do that. And that little thing like striking out once in every 3.97 at bats will do it as well. If he was the leadoff hitter for the White Sox, White Sox fans would not want him as a leadoff hitter. He's worse than Soriano in the leadoff spot. By a lot, actually.

Zone rating = average. Range factor = below-average.

Young wasn't just the headliner...he was the only real player in the deal. And even with all that Vazquez was, the Sox got the better of that one, all things considered.

Now! onto Flowers. Many executives don't think Flowers is overrated. Many executives know that Flowers caught full-time for the first time last year. He was a shortstop in high school and switched between catcher and first base in college. They think he's a project defensively, not overrated.

The guy walked 98 freaking times in 413 at-bats last year for a .427 OBP. And he's not and all-or-nothing hitter. 32 doubles in 413 at-bats. Sure, Class A. But he should be on schedule to get to the White Sox right about the time Pierzynski and Konerko's contracts expire. It's a ridiculously good play and the right guy for the situation.

Flowers, Gilmore and Santos Rodriguez are all high-ceiling guys. Brent Lillibridge could be next year's Quentin: a talented player acquired when his value was low after a bad year. It makes you wonder how much Williams will be offered for Dye.

And there you go. Phil spends a bazillion columns lamenting the loss of Fautino de los Santos and barely even mentions that Santos Rodriguez, a guy comparable not only in name but in ceiling, was just acquired. And Rodriguez has the added advantage of not just having Tommy John surgery.

That's our Phil (cue wacky sitcom music)!

Phil Watch: Ah, C'mon! (Times 8,397)

"Mommy. What's a pythagorean win-loss percentage?"

"Well Robby, it's when a baseball idiot pokes his dipstick into a baseball hoo-hoo and, nine months later, a little baseball moron of an idea pops out."

"What?"

"You heard me, you little..."

Let's play a little catch-up. Phil's been a busy little bee over the last week, if being busy means being a dope. Which it does.

So let's just pick the juiciest nuggets over the last week and do that thing where the BRE tries to get all clever and shit and say things that are more funny/accurate/incisive/breathtakingly inappropriate than what Phil writes.

It's what we do.

Let's start with today's offering (in reverse order):

Modern math: According to the Pythagorean standings, the Angels' Mike Scioscia and Houston's Cecil Cooper were the best managers in the majors this season. They had ratings of +12 and +9 respectively.

Wow. Wow! WOW!! I don't know if I've ever seen something so wrong in an inherently wrong way than this. Well, that's not true. Palin DID say her First Amendment rights were violated by the media yesterday.

Pythagorean standings are NOT manager ratings. Repeat. Not. No. They are a pretty simple mathematical equation that takes runs scored and runs against and plugs them into a formula to determine their win-loss record based solely on that.

In other words, it's merely cute and nobody uses it. Sometimes the disparity is pretty shocking and it's interesting to see such a disparity. It can help an argument in an ancillary of an ancillary sense by demonstrating that a team probably was unbelievably lucky with RISP, they had a great bullpen or their rotation was loaded with Zeuses, Apollos and Joes the Plumber.

Arizona last year was a good example. 18 games over in actual wins and four games under in Pythagorean wins.

But let's take the Angels this year. They were well on their way to being the Arizona of this year w/r/t Pythagorean win-loss. On June 9, they were 39-26 and in first place, four games up on Oakland. Their run differential was...ZERO! Oakland's was +46.

What does that mean? Well, if it was relatively late and the Angels were down, say, four runs, it usually meant Scioscia would go with the Chris Bootchecks, Jason Bulgers and Darren O'Days of the world. Who are they? Exactly. The Angels ended the season at +68 and the A's ended at -44.

So anyway. You take the Pythagorean win-loss, compare it to actual win-loss and come up with a number called 'Luck'. So if the P-WL is say 12 games lower than actual win-loss, then it's determined by this simplistic formula that 12 games were won that the numbers say they probably shouldn't have.

In other-other-other words, IT'S NOT A MANAGER'S RATING!!!!!

Managers cannot see the future, which saying 12 games a year determines a manager's proficiency does! This is where certain statistical models get into trouble. Because dopes can wildly misuse them.

It was debunked ten years ago, completely modified and has been tossed to the ash bin of silly baseball logic.

I can only think Phil is using this for some stupid reason.

The worst were the Toronto combination of John Gibbons and Cito Gaston and Atlanta's Bobby Cox, at -7.

Cripes. Poor Cito Gaston. Phil couldn't even give the guys his properly proper props.

When Gibbons was fired on June 20, the Jays were 35-40 with a +9 run differential.

They finished 86-76 and had a +104 run differential.

That's a 51-36 actual record and a 55-32 Pythagorean W-L for Gaston.

So a +4 luck factor for the team under Gaston and a -11 luck factor for the team under Gibbons.

That doesn't mean that the Jays were better because of the presence of Super Gaston. It had more to do with something resembling a healthy rotation and a bullpen that found its legs as the season went on. Oh, also, Vernon Wells and Alex Rios figured out that getting base hits and not striking out makes you a better baseball player. I don't think it took Cito to tell them that.

The rankings show managers decided only one playoff race—the AL Central. Minnesota's Ron Gardenhire was a -1 compared to Ozzie Guillen's zero, and without the difference the Twins would have avoided a one-game playoff.

BREAKING NEWS: Ron Gardenhire singlehandedly 88 games this year. There were no Minnesota Twins players involved. In fact, every game this year was a mirage created by Bud Selig to fool everyone into thinking that baseball is real.

Really? Is Phil thinking through this shit while he's typing it? Pythagorean W-L means nothing! Just a cute tool, people! And it's not Modern Math. It's math used 15 years before baseball stats were seriously evaluated.

Lou Piniella was a -1 after getting a -2 rating in 2007, his first year with the Cubs. Dusty Baker, the manager Piniella replaced, was a +2 in his first year in Cincinnati.

There you go! Based on an archaic, overly simplistic formula that nobody uses, Dusty Baker was a better manager than Lou Pinella.

It took all season for Phil to find something to justify his Dusty man-love, but he wins. They can go make Phusty babies now.

And then we move on to the impetus of this article: Charlie Manuel is the bestest manager in the bestest way in the bestest history of history.

Why? Well, because the Indians have been bad since he left.

Manuel, who had been Mike Hargrove's hitting coach during Cleveland's heyday a decade ago, replaced Hargrove as manager before 2000. His first two teams won 90 games and 91 games, winning the American League Central in 2001.

But Shapiro sacked him after a 39-47 start in '02. The firing came less than nine months after Shapiro had been promoted to replace John Hart as general manager. He tabbed Joel Skinner, an organization guy, as an interim manager to finish out the season but then turned to the 35-year-old Eric Wedge for 2003.

We're getting to it...

You can't blame Manuel for being just a little amused looking at what has happened to the Indians since they sacked him.

Four of Wedge's six seasons have been losing ones; Manuel, on the other hand, never has had a losing record for a full season. The Pythagorean rankings, which essentially measure a team's victory total with the number suggested by its run production and prevention, have Wedge at -19 for his six-year career; Manuel is at zero for the six full seasons he has managed in Cleveland and Philadelphia.

This should just about cover it:

Cleveland Indians Payroll Since 2000:

2008: $ 78,970,066
2007: $ 61,673,267
2006: $ 56,031,500
2005: $ 41,502,500
2004: $ 34,319,300
2003: $ 48,584,834
2002: $ 78,909,499
2001: $ 93,360,000 (Manuel)
2000: $ 76,500,000 (Manuel)

Any correlation? Me thinks so!

But no. It's because Charlie Manuel is the smartest manager to ever don a fat baseball uniform.

Did Phil watch Manuel's press conferences?

He sounded like this guy:

"I wasn't working on trying to prove nothing," Charlie Manuel said.

More to come.

Phil Watch: Ah, C'mon! (Con't)

I would be remiss if I didn't at least mention this here at Phil Watch, as Phil got his ass handed to him on sports radio all last week over it.

Why?

Well...see for yourself.

The Cubs are on the list of teams for which Jake Peavy will waive his no-trade clause. This doesn't look like a fit, but don't be surprised if Jim Hendry tries to put together a package that would include a swap of first basemen, Derrek Lee and Adrian Gonzalez, who is supposedly untouchable.

Jake Peavy - by himself - being traded to the Cubs 'doesn't look like a fit', but...

The Padres, a team desperately trying to get younger and shed payroll, would trade away a 26 year-old first basemen considered by most to be one of the best in the game for a 'package' headlined by a 33 year-old first basemen in serious offensive decline and is owed $26 million over the next two years and has a no-trade clause.

Oh yeah. And Gonzalez's contract obligation over the next three years:

09:$3M, 10:$4.75M, 11:$5.5M club option (no buyout)

Now...if you're a team trying to rebuild...THERE IS NOBODY YOU WOULD REBUILD AROUND MORE!!!

And Peavy going to be included AS WELL?????!!!!!!

Phil's 'package' would have to include Soto and/or Marmol for Towers to even pick up the phone. Or a farm system dump the likes of which haven't been seen since the Johan Santana trade. Mention the realistic details, Phil. And then check your inbox.

Have I been expecting too much from the Chicago Tribune all this time? Is this my fault somehow?

Phil Rogers. Capturing the essence of a Score caller for three-plus decades.

But

I must give Phil credit where it's deserved. Well...this is mostly due to the fact that Rick Morrissey wrote something so breathtakingly stupid, making Phil's response was positively sane in comparison.

It's the typical shit. The World Series experiences a rain delay and sportswriters compulsively feel the need to prove their mettle by writing reactionary pieces promoting the wholesale destruction of the current model.

It's what they do. It makes them feel important, if only briefly.

Here's Morrissey:

1. Start the season on April 15 and end it on September 15, resulting in a 130 game season.

2. Better yet, start May 1 and end it August 30. The season is way too long.

3. The Steroids Era ruined stats anyway so fuck it.

4. Move the World Series to a neutral, warm-weather site.

5. Like Game 5 this year, one hour and 18 minute games are awesome.

Should BRE start a Rick Watch? WOW!

Phil's response:

1. Keep the season at 162 games.

2. Cut Spring Training by one week.

3. Start the season 10 days earlier.

4. Have teams play three scheduled doubleheaders.

5. Add a 26th player to the roster.

6. World Series played between October 13-21 every year. First round increased to seven games.

I could get behind that.

And if 10,000 people can run 26.2 miles in the New York Marathon on November 2, a few baseball players can play their little game in late October.

See. I think they alternate between who is going to be the raging moron each week over at the Trib.

Phil just volunteers a lot.

Phil Watch: Phil's Baaaaaaccckkk!

See.

Off-season Phil is da bomb!

Christo's gonna need something to get himself through another winter and Phil's going to be his chenille throw blanket providing a reassuring warmth on those cold wintry evenings.

Let's get started.

Could Manny Ramirez join the Cubs?

It's a long shot, but don't count out Hendry's go-for-broke approach

Let's rephrase that. The Cubs already have almost $130 million committed before making pitches to Dempster and Wood. $150 million after that. The Cubs are about to be sold, the economy's in the porcelain poop dispenser and the stadium revenue streams are maxed out.

Hey, let's write a completely nonsensical article about the Cubs' chances of signing a 36 year-old left fielder demanding a six-year contract at $20 million per year. With another wildly overpaid and untradeable player currently occupying his position.

I'll say this. Phil knows these internets. I can only imagine the number of people clicking on this one just to see how stupidly stupid it might be. It's about page hits, people. Shrewd devil, that Phil.

Manny Ramirez won't be going to Boston for the World Series. No one knows where he will wind up in 2009, including Ramirez or his agent, Scott Boras, both of whom are the cleanup hitters of their businesses.

Despite unprecedented production under the brightest lights, the baggage Ramirez carries is so heavy that it's unclear if the Los Angeles Dodgers will pay to bring him back. His fit elsewhere is equally unclear, as is the outlook for improving a Cubs team that has gone 0-6 the last two Octobers.

Could those uncertainties merge?

Ooooh, Phil Game! Pick two uncertainties in life and ask if they can somehow merge. No criteria and critical thinking needed. Just think of two things and ask if it will get Joe The Ass Picker from Cicero to read your column. Points for coming up with an enticing headline.

It's uncertain right now if Green Party presidential candidate Cynthia McKinney will win the election. People are uncertain about the economy and want a new face.

Will those uncertainties merge?

Headline: Could a Bat-Shit Loony Presidential Candidate Win The Election?

With the aggressive nature of general manager Jim Hendry and the anything-to-win approach in the Lou Piniella era, don't rule this out—not if the Dodgers would take on a big contract or two from the Cubs.

Every big contract the Cubs have right now includes...(drumroll)...A NO-TRADE CLAUSE! And why specifically the Dodgers? Manny's a free agent and the Dodgers get two draft picks if they offer and he walks.

Soriano? Where does he fit with the Dodgers? They have 5.4 billion outfielders right now, including two with bad contracts (Pierre/Jones) and two leadoff hitters (Furcal if signed and Pierre). Why, exactly would the Dodgers bite, Phil? So far, you sound like a Score caller.

Ramirez? He's less than two years away from being a 10-5 player. Why is he waiving his no-trade clause?

Lee? Loney equals his production and is 42 years younger and $8 billion cheaper.

But before getting all speculative, let's revisit Ramirez's impact after being traded from Boston to the Dodgers at the July 31 deadline.

Let's.

Baseball's most dreaded hitter, he batted .520 with four homers, 10 RBIs, nine runs and 11 walks in eight postseason games. He played 61 games in all for Los Angeles, a team that was punchless before adding him, and delivered a .410 average with 21 home runs and 63 RBIs.

But...but...but...that doesn't tell me why the Dodgers would take a couple of big (see: Bad) contracts from the Cubs. Does Phil know Manny's a free agent?

He had a .513 on-base percentage and a .783 slugging average—numbers that combine for a 1.296 OPS. He has played in 108 career postseason games for Cleveland, Boston and the Dodgers and delivered a .286 average with 28 homers, 74 RBIs and a .949 OPS.

Phil did math! It wasn't Phil-Math. Just regular, logical math. Still don't know why the Dodgers are taking on Cubs' contracts.

Ramirez gave up a $20 million option in Boston to become a free agent after this season.

Whew!! Phil knows it. I was worried.

Wait a minute...that makes this even stupider!

He is 36 and, according to Boras, deserving of a six-year contract that will pay him top-of-the-scale money until he's 42, as Alex Rodriguez will be and Barry Bonds was in his last contract. Boras points out a quality that separates Ramirez from those other elite hitters.

Well, shit. If Boras said it, it must be true. Always trust guys in life who are looking to get paid. Trust everything out of their mouth without question. That's today's life lesson from Christo.

"He not only gives you performance of the highest level during the season, but in the postseason he just carries a team," the agent told ESPN Friday.

Are quotes from Boras supposed to buttress this argument? Still don't know how Manny fits into the Cubs scheme and why the Dodgers and specifically the Dodgers are taking Cubs' contracts.

Boras believes this quality trumps questions about Ramirez's on-again, off-again effort and the selfishness that eventually made him persona non grata after two World Series parades in Boston. It's unclear whether Hendry or executives with other teams will bite.

Wait just one moment. I say again. Phil posited the question, "Could Manny Ramirez Join The Cubs?" and we're 1/2 of the way through this shit and he still hasn't even formed something resembling an argument that would hold up to the scrutiny of my four year-old nephew. Well, that nephew might be six...or ten by now, but you get my drift.

If there's a fan base ripe for that pitch, it's the fans in the bars in Wrigleyville.

Ka-boom! There we go. That's his argument right there. The Cub fans might want it so it could, should and will happen. Because the economics and rationale of baseball moves don't even enter the picture in Cub fan fantasyland. It just should happen.

Just like the last caller on the Holmes & Hampton show that said the Cubs should trade Fukudome, Fontenot and Howry to the Orioles for Brian Roberts. Forget the fact that Howry's a free agent. Angelos should do it because the Cubs deserve a World Series and any player that once put on a Cub uniform is as valuable and the most valuable valuables on the planet.

They have watched Alfonso Soriano and Aramis Ramirez go a combined 5-for-51 in the crushing first-round losses to the Dodgers and Arizona and are hungrier than ever for the full ride, not just the big tease.

I would pay money to see the Cubs only acquire players that have had post-season success. Craig Counsell, Tito Landrum and Scott Brosius are looking for work, I'm sure.

There's no way the Cubs can play two left fielders, so Soriano would have to go for Ramirez to come.

Whhhhaaaaa? Phil's addressing actual issues? Let's see where this goes.

Soriano seems to be essentially an immovable object with six years and $106 million left on his contract, but the Dodgers will need two things if they don't re-sign Ramirez—power hitting and another buzz guy.

And too tweaky, moody and demands to lead off or he'll pout. Forgot that, Phil.

Could Soriano soften the blow of losing Ramirez?

Yeah, the Dodgers need more guys prone to missing baseball games to injuries. And what baseball fan doesn't know what Soriano really is? Buzz guy? Last time I checked, the Dodgers don't have problems putting butts in seats. Who in their right mind would make a decision whether to go or not go to a baseball game based on the presence of Alfonso Soriano?

"I have a lot of work to do and a lot of decisions to make," Dodgers GM Ned Colletti told the Los Angeles Daily News last week. "I'll do a lot of listening."

And if Coletti takes Soriano's contract, he will not be a GM much longer. Even the lame-ass LA media will eat him alive.

If Hendry, who still needs his own contract extension, decides to make major changes, the Cubs and Dodgers could have lots to talk about.

Again. WHY DO THE CUBS AND DODGERS SPECIFICALLY HAVE ANYTHING TO TALK ABOUT!!!!!!

With Derek Lowe eligible for free agency and Brad Penny and Jason Schmidt physical wrecks (Penny has a $9.25 million option that might not be exercised), the Dodgers likely will be in the market for starting pitching. The Cubs have it to trade, especially if they keep Ryan Dempster and Kerry Wood off the free-agent market.

Who...what the...why....how would...????? WHO'S BEING TRADED FOR WHO AND WHAT DOES THIS HAVE TO DO WITH MANNY AND THE DODGERS????!!!!!!

They could move Soriano or Aramis Ramirez to address the Dodgers' need for power hitting, although like Carlos Zambrano both have full no-trade clauses that would have to be waived. Both teams have bad contracts they might be willing to discuss to try to get a deal done (most notably Kosuke Fukudome, Andruw Jones, Juan Pierre and Schmidt).

Phil had to be drunk when he wrote this. I bet he woke up the next morning and had some vague memory of doing something last night. He clicked on the Trib site and saw it.

And then I bet he was proud of himself that he didn't, in his mind, embarrass himself.

It's a sliding scale when taking into account everything he's written.

I ask again/again/again/again. How would the Cubs trading for Andruw Jones, Juan Pierre and/or Jason Schmidt help the Cubs SIGN MANNY RAMIREZ?!%^&#%AA@

JHC, this is a rambling, incoherent piece of poo!

Manny Ramirez's first option is to go back to the Dodgers. But if owner Frank McCourt isn't willing to make that happen, all bets are off.

Ending with 'all bets are off' is like those people that posit a stupid-ass argument and reply to logic that debunks said argument with a "You neeevvveeerrr kkkknnnoooowwww..."

I tried to put together a scenario using Phil's logic here. I took a shower, ate some lunch and pondered anything in the same universe as rational and I couldn't come up with anything. Could the Cubs acquire Pierre and Jones and trade Soriano and Zambrano to make room (?) for Manny? There were charts and graphs and logarithms and tarot cards and I came up with nothing.

I did come up with one thing.

Phil's back. It's going to be a good winter.

Phil Watch: More Words, Still Stupid

For the last 18 days or so, Phil's been a busy little bee.

He's had a column/article a day every day since September 11.

It's been the usual amalgam of game recaps straining for big picture analysis coupled with dumb-ass opinions like "Cabrera Worth Keeping Around" and "Despite Off-Night, Alexei Rookie Of The Year Frontrunner".

And my personal favorite would be Phil passing off the declaration of Arizona as the NL West winner on MAY 1 (!) onto the Tribune instead of himself.

Sorry, Phil. You can erase your columns in the Tribune archive but BRE diligently keeps all of theirs. You said it. Not in your dippy power rankings that supposedly come from a roundtable discussion but your column.

But that's the reason Phil Watch has died a slow death here at BRE. Phil wore me down. There's nothing fun about beating up on an unmitigated moron. You need some level of sanity interjected with stupidity to keep it spicy.

100% dumb = 100% boredom.

And I've said it before and I'll say it again. Who reads Phil the first time...and comes back for MORE?

With that, let's go back for more.

Phil's Ranking Of Playoff Teams:

Editor's note: These picks are the result of statistical analysis weighted toward pitching and defense and performance since the All-Star break. The Tribune used this formula after the regular season in 2007 and correctly picked Boston over Colorado in the World Series and six of the seven postseason series. That analysis gives us Cubs over Boston in the 2008 World Series.

Thanks for the actual formula. Oh...wait. There is no actual formula. Just some vague reference to 'pitching and defense and performance' (yet another clue that Phil's editor gave up years ago).

1. Cubs (3): Picked to go to the World Series by many during spring training, the Lou Crew handled the heat during the regular season, but it's about to get turned up several degrees. It's a veteran team with quality leaders in Derrek Lee, Mark DeRosa, Ryan Dempster and Kerry Wood, but there's no getting around the burden it carries with fans. This is a much better team than the one that got within five outs of the World Series in 2003, but Carlos Zambrano has become a question mark and the lineup remains built around guys who were shut down by Arizona in the 2007 playoffs.

Using Phil's own 'statistical analysis and tying that to players actually mentioned, let's see the results.

Kerry Wood: 3.92 ERA after the All-Star break (good for 18th among closers). 7.45 ERA in September.

Derrek Lee: .270 5 hr 34 rbi. OPSed .745 since the break, good for 3rd-to-last among first basemen with 200 abs, ahead of only Kotchman and Millar.

Mark DeRosa: Has a calf issue, hit .234 in September and his first half was nearly identical to his second half. Basically had two productive months (with August accounting for nearly one-third of his overall production).

Carlos Zambrano: Take out the no-hitter from his September starts and he has a 12.71 ERA with a 2.12 WHIP.

The team was 12-12 in September and a merger 4 games over .500 on the road for the year. There ARE issues here.

I know Cub fans don't like trends and statistics and...you know...analysis outside of "The Cubs are goin' all the way, baby!!!! WOOOO!!!!" but can they just be like real baseball fans and look at their team through sober goggles. Just once. It would be soooo refreshing.

2. Red Sox (4): The closest thing to a dynasty at this time, Boston has won two of the last four World Series and is a serious contender again. Jason Bay came up huge after being acquired in the Manny Ramirez trade, which veteran players welcomed. The Red Sox's pitching is set with a rested Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka. Mike Lowell's hip bears watching.

Okay. Boston's played well since the Manny trade. True. But they basically had a generous schedule, allowing them to a crapload of teams under .500 and they beat them, especially in August.

Lowell's hurt. Drew's hurt. Youkilis and Pedroia cooled off dramatically in September and Ortiz still isn't his usual self.

And it was reported 48 hours ago that Beckett's start has been pushed back to Game 3 because of an injured side. Just check the wires once, Phil.

Oh yeah, and their bullpen has been anything but stellar this year.

This aren't concerns?

3. Rays (1): You need a microscope to find the separation between Tampa Bay and Boston, who could meet in the American League Championship Series. The Rays are a good bet to get past the AL Central survivor in the first round. The strength of this team is its ability to stop opponents from scoring, but none of the starters goes into the playoffs on a roll.

No complaints. About right. Though they will be riding into the playoffs without a real closer.

4. Dodgers (7): You know Joe Torre loves taking this team to the playoffs when the Yankees couldn't get there behind Joe Girardi, his replacement. Some say the key to the Dodgers' turnaround was the trade for Casey Blake, not the more widely celebrated deal for Ramirez. Either way, the lineup was successfully rebuilt on the fly. Derek Lowe and Chad Billingsley are a solid 1-2 combination.

Who is 'some'? He's hit .251/.313/.460 for the Dodgers.

Let's project Blake's Dodger numbers out to a full season (about 530 abs):

.251/.313/.460 25 hrs, 57 rbi, 30 db, 40 bb, 130 k

Guess how that's astonishingly close to being? Nick Swisher. 2008 Nick Swisher. Blake's ever-so-slightly better, statistically. He had some big hits in August, but a grand total of six RBI in September.

It's cute but entirely wrong to think Blake had a better impact than Manny. So-So-So Wrong.

Let's project Manny's numbers with the Dodgers out to an entire season (about 560 abs):

.396/.489/.743 51 hrs, 159 rbi, 42 db, 105 bb, 114 k

That's an OPS of 1.232! And an OPS+ of 213! Mickey Mantle OPS+ed higher than that exactly once. Willie Mays never did. Babe Ruth had a career OPS+ of 207.

You make the call. Who's meant more to the Dodger turnaround?

Dope.

5. Phillies (6): Charlie Manuel's bullpen, anchored by Brad Lidge (41-for-41 in save situations), is the envy of just about every team still playing. First baseman Ryan Howard is a serious MVP candidate after a 48-homer, 146-RBI season, albeit with 199 strikeouts. The Phils have a legitimate four-man rotation.

No complaints, really. I think Howard deserves serious consideration as well. He hit .352 in September when they needed him to and .320 with RISP on the year.

I don't know who this 'legitimate four-man rotation' is that Phil speaks of, though.

Hamels = Good

Moyer = Pitched kind of out of his gourd this year

Blanton = Pretty terrible

Myers = One good six-week stretch and absolutely terrible otherwise.

Legitimate?

6. Brewers (15): General manager Doug Melvin made some dubious history by sacking manager Ned Yost on Sept. 15. The move did arrest a slide in which Milwaukee had lost seven of eight games, but no one's bragging about a 6-14 record in non-CC Sabathia starts down the stretch. A shaky bullpen is sometimes exposed by poor fielding.

No. A shaky bullpen is exposed by their inherent shakiness. They're terrible.

Now. Someone explain to me how the Brewers are a better team than....THE ANGELS!

7. Angels (2): They led the majors in victories but aren't close to being the best team. Like the Cubs, their key is their organizational depth, especially in starting pitching (Jon Garland and Jered Weaver, who combined for 25 wins, work out of the bullpen in the Boston series). The lineup improved dramatically in the second half, thanks in part to Mark Teixeira, but teams with middle-infield questions usually don't go a long way in October.

100-62, folks. And in Phil's world, they're no better than the two shittiest teams on this list.

And here's the best part. See that number in parenthesis up there next to the team name. That's what they were rated LAST WEEK!

So using 'statistical analysis based on pitching and defense and performance' since the break, Phil says, as of last week, the Angels were good. They had the unmitigated gall to go 4-3 for the week, playing their Salt Lake team for the most part, and that drops them to the 7th best playoff team!

They've scored the second-most runs among playoff teams since the break, had the second-best OPS as a team among playoff teams since the break, have a clearer pecking order in the bullpen than any playoff team right now and went 17-8 to finish the season.

What's the problem?

Oh, apparently the middle infield is a concern. Howie Kendrick has committed a grand total of 4 errors in 446 chances this year and Erick Aybar, while committing 18 errors, never had a error that really meant anything. How do I know? I WATCHED THE GAMES!

If he would have written about concerns over Lackey's consistency and velocity and the second-half fade of Joe Saunders, fine. Even the crappy second half Figgins had, that would be legitimate.

But there's nothing wrong with Kendrick and Aybar that's going to stop the Angels from advancing in the postseason. Nothing.

And they are NOT a worse team, given the pitching and defense and performance and trends and heart of the lineup and bullpen and managers and bench and everything else than the Brewers, Phillies and Dodgers in the least and probably the Rays. I worry about Boston but they beat them 8 of 9 times this year, finally getting over the Red Sox hump.

JESUS!

I'm under no illusions here. The postseason is a whole new ballgame. And the Angels have their issues but...

DOUBLE JESUS!

8. Twins (12): Minnesota has come this far only by backing up more slowly than the White Sox. The Twins have gone 14-20 since Aug. 23 with a young starting rotation looking very ordinary. Batting champ Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau are leaned on heavily.

I'm still mad about the #7 ranking of the Angels.

9. White Sox (9): Poised on the edge of extinction, it's hard to see Ozzie Guillen's team doing any damage in October. It's a team badly in need of rest, and at this point the only way to get a break is to be eliminated. The White Sox hit more homers than any other team but badly miss MVP candidate Carlos Quentin.

Still mad.

Phil Watch: It's Been Awhile

Last night's 11-3 loss to the Orioles coupled with the Twins' come-from-behind win proves yet again that Kenny Williams and Ozzie Guillen are too arrogant to understand the complexities and importance of every game in August.

Uhhh...wait. Jay doesn't write for a Chicago newspaper anymore.

But unlike Jay, I don't want Phil to go away. He's my muse, a man truly tapped into the mind of dippy Chicago Baseball Fans (an Icky Eight contender in BRE's TOA-AE).

He does the work so I don't have to.

When Mate, Rube and I used to play pickle in Mate's side yard, conversations like this used to happen.

We were eight.

Sox are Cubs' worst nightmare

Nightmare scenario for North Siders is finally getting to World Series and seeing team with nothing to lose

Beware the sneak attack.

I think that's a gay joke and it's entirely uncalled for.

In baseball, more than any other sport, it's unwise to draw attention to yourself. First-round draft picks who come with hype often turn out to be Corey Patterson or Kip Wells. The trades that don't make big headlines, like the White Sox's deal for Carlos Quentin, often turn out to be a lot better than the ones that are analyzed in day-by-day detail for weeks, like the Mets' addition of Johan Santana.

Boy, it HAS been awhile. Christo forgets.

Um...yeah. Phil himself gave Johan Santana a reach-around by comparing him to Sandy Koufax and Bob Gibson a mere eight months ago and thought giving up Chris Carter was another bad move by Kenny because - drum-roll - giving up prospects is bad.

So...you know...hype and big headlines...Phil means his own oeuvre.

Just ask those New York Yankees. They have won exactly one of their last six playoff series—being "upset" by Florida (2003), Boston ('04), the Angels ('05), Detroit ('06) and Cleveland ('07)—and find themselves awaiting regular-season extinction this time around. Headlines, sadly, are like Alex Rodriguez. They can't hit in the clutch.

I'm already tired. I have the demented melancholy of a Tennessee Williams heroine.

Alex Rodriguez has a lifetime .303 average with RISP. He's hit...oh, hell, just go here.

It seems Jay may be going to Boston. Maybe Phil wants to go to New York? He'd fit right in with the 'JETER RULES!' crowd.

This brings me to the newest nightmare scenario for the Cubs: A date with the White Sox in the World Series.

[Flashback to 1980] "Rube, you're a pud. No way the Brewers'll play the White Sox in the playoffs."

"Yeah they will. Shut up. Ben Oglivie and Moose Haas are awesome!"

"The White Sox are going to win the World Series. Burns and Dotson are more awesome."

"What if the Cubs played the White Sox in the World Series?"

"Shut up, Christo. The Cubs suck."

"Let's go to Casey's and get Suzy-Qs."

There's little doubt the Lou Crew is not only the best team in Chicago but the best in the majors. No lineup is as deep as the one that goes from Alfonso Soriano through Jim Edmonds and Reed Johnson. No rotation is as talented and as durable as the one that begins with Carlos Zambrano and runs through Jason Marquis. No bullpen has more impact arms than the one with Kerry Wood, Carlos Marmol and Jeff Samardzija.

"The Cubs are so awesome, man, they're so awesome, Samardzija rules! Go Cubs, YEAH! WOOOOOOOO!!!!!

But the Cubs won't want any part of the White Sox in October. If this is going to be the year the North Siders scratch their 100-year itch, it won't include a matchup against the Sox in October.

DINGDINGDINGDING!!!! And that's the one ga-jillionth time I've heard about the '100-year itch' in the last month.

Under normal circumstances, I am one of those rare people who believe Chicago's baseball fans should all get along—that it's silly to root against the Cubs just because you're a White Sox fan, or vice versa. But these are hardly normal circumstances, right?

Shouldn't this really be the normal circumstances? Or maybe the circumstances that put mindless platitudes to the test? All Chicago Baseball Fans (IECITBREsTOA-AE) should probably worry about their own damn team ALL THE TIME!

With five weekends left before baseball's postseason passion play begins, it's looking more and more likely that the Cubs and White Sox will both earn spots in the field. It has only been 102 years since that happened.

Umm. The Cubs are in but I'd ask White Sox fans whether it seems 'more and more likely' that the Sox will earn a spot in the playoffs.

The Cubs were expected to make it. The White Sox, leading the American League Central by two games and almost even with Boston on the wild-card landscape, would be surprise guests—the worst kind from the perspective of other teams. A team with almost nothing to lose.

But, but, but, but...Phil just said it's 'more and more likely'! Christo needs a drink.

We're getting ahead of ourselves, sure. But imagine the fear and loathing in Wrigleyville if the Cubs advance to the World Series for the first time since 1945 and have to start the event at U.S. Cellular Field, where Michael Barrett couldn't budge A.J. Pierzynski with a sucker punch, where Jerry Reinsdorf put staffers in tuxedos to deliver World Series rings to Mark Buehrle and the fellows a mere 29 months ago.

"I think Jerry Stenulson is going to hit a thousand home runs in Pony League next year."

Wouldn't it be just like the Cubs to put together arguably their best team ever and have it lose the World Series to a White Sox team that had been picked for third place or worse?

At least he didn't write 'ultimate irony'. I'm trying to find the bright side of things, here.

He also didn't write "Dusty Baker should be managing this team. He deserves it."

See. Good things have come from this.

More to the point, wouldn't it be just like the White Sox once again to outplay their crosstown neighbors with the bigger fan base, superior resources and historic ballpark?

Anybody else love what Obama said about Cub fans yesterday? And Derrek Lee agreeing with it? And the calls to 670 from Cub fans?

'Member that? That was awesome.

While the Cubs have continued to stretch their margin for making the playoffs—a comfortable 10 games when their sweep of Pittsburgh was completed Wednesday—the White Sox have shown strong signs of outlasting Minnesota for their second AL Central title in the last four years.

Wouldn't it be awesome if the Sox could play the Reds and Pirates 18 times a year? And the entire NL West. That would be awesome.

They are pitching well again—compiling a 3.98 staff ERA in August after marks of 4.44 in July and 5.14 in June—in part because lefty Clayton Richard and right-hander Lance Broadway have more than filled Jose Contreras' spot.

Filling in so well that they have a combined 6.81 ERA. I don't think any Sox fan wants to rely on these two right now.

They go to Boston this weekend with a chance to be measured head-to-head with the defending World Series champion Red Sox, who are in what has become a three teams-for-two playoff spots battle with the White Sox and Minnesota. Most analysts favor Chicago's Sox to last into October.

Well, shit. Let's end the season. Analysts favor the Sox. Let's call it by acclamation.

Any team that makes it to October is a threat to win it all.

Thank You, Captain Obvious.

Imagine how Cub fans are going to feel if their supposed once-every-century season ends with them being overshadowed by the White Sox, of all surprise guests.

"Girls are bleeeecccchhhh!"

Phil Watch: Making Up For Milquetoast

Quick stat for Sox fans: Starting Monday, the Twins play 30 of their next 45 games on the road.

On to Phil.

It's been a positively boring Phil Watch world for the last two weeks.

Last week, he told us that the Cubs and the Brewers are good bets for the post-season, which was kind of predicting that the ground gets wet when it rains.

A few days ago, Phil made up imaginary people in his head that were screaming for the Cubs to make a trade at the deadline and told us that these imaginary people were silly.

In short, he couldn't have been more dull if his name was Dull Dullerson.

But he gets up, dusts himself off and jumps back on the horse today.

It's vintage Phil, equivalent to a beautiful 2000 Bourdeaux.

Let's get started.

Ramirez gives the popgun-hitting Dodgers enough punch to overcome Arizona in baseball's lightweight division, the National League West. His departure, coming at a time when David Ortiz isn't himself because of a wrist injury, could leave the Red Sox without the runs they will need to catch Tampa Bay and hold off the New York Yankees in the American League East.

Okaaayyy. The Dodgers offense was indeed bad before acquiring Ramirez and taking him out of the Red Sox lineup of course will have an impact.

Manny's OPSing .936 this year. Jason Bay's OPSing .906, so there's an ever-so-slight dropoff there when talking about purely offensive numbers.

But the team's decision to dump him hardly has anything to do with purely offensive numbers. It had to do with the fact that Manny may be fucking nuts. In the span of two weeks, he told Red Sox ownership to fuck off, accused them of racism, pushed a 64 year-old traveling secretary to the ground for not having tickets for him, decided that running hard was now optional and continued to show that playing bad defense is the stuff of comedy, not part of the job. All that in a period of two weeks.

Would you go into the off-season with his $20 million option hanging over the team, with no hand to play w/r/t trading him and continue to listen to him blather on to the media about how gutless/racist/dishonest ownership is?

All that for two months of Manny's offense in a year when the Red Sox starting pitching is NOT anything stellar and the bullpen's terribly mediocre. This is not the '07 Red Sox. It's a bit of a patchwork going nowhere, really. Time to give the team a reasonable chance this year while keeping a firm eye on building a contender for next year, which they did while jettisoning a cartoon character whose act had grown woefully tiresome.

It's true that the deal gives Ramirez exactly what he and his agent, Boras, wanted. The Red Sox agreed to erase Ramirez's 2009 and '10 options in exchange for him approving the trade. But it's crazy to think Ramirez wouldn't have been productive the next couple of months. He needed to keep his value high in case he did wind up as a free agent.

Again. Production's not really an issue. It's the fact that he wouldn't have shut up. All the shit he said about ownership was absolutely calculated. He forced it by being an over-the-top asshole.

But here's the flawed logic here. Why would Manny lose any money on the free agent market if he didn't produce as a Red Sox in August and September if he's so wonderful? And erasing the option years was a bit of a no-brainer for the Sox. The trade was going to happen in some form so doing it was no loss for the team. It was no longer their problem. It just meant they would get a little less in return as the team getting him loses the option/s.

They got Jason Bay in return, a guy that can approximate Ramirez's numbers and is signed for $7.5M next year, a $12.5M savings over Manny without the assholishness and is seven years younger.

For 16 years, Ramirez has done two things: made his employers scratch their heads and driven in runs like nobody else in his generation. He was hitting .299 with 20 homers and 68 RBIs at the time of the trade, putting him on track for his 10th 100-RBI season in the last 11 years.

And here's where it gets really stupid.

Manny's played on two teams in his career - Boston and Cleveland - that were built as perennial playoff contenders. Sure, in part because of Manny but only in part. Look at the rosters of every team he's played for.

He's a first ballot Hall of Famer. No doubt. But cripes! He better drive in 100 runs a year on those teams.

And since the last two weeks have been all Manny all the time in the media, stupid-ass commentators have found it proper to say that he's the best right-handed hitter of his generation bar none, which is patent bullshit.

Alex Rodriguez is the best player in baseball period. And he played a full two-thirds of his career on wildly mediocre-to-shitass Seattle and Texas teams. Their career numbers are nearly identical even given the protection and lack thereof for each player.

To say 'bar none' is just fucking stupid.

Maybe, but no one should underestimate Ramirez's value as a run producer. No matter how far manager Terry Francona and veterans like Jason Varitek and Mike Lowell go to welcome him to Boston, Bay will feel pressure like he never has.

Who's underestimating Manny's value? More imaginary people in Phil's head?

And I missed the symposium on Jason Bay's fragile psyche. It's not Iraq.

As much as pitching from guys like Josh Beckett and Derek Lowe, it was the 3-4 combination of Ortiz and Ramirez that allowed Boston to end its 86-year World Series drought with two championships in four years. Here are the '04 and '07 postseason numbers from those two:

•Ortiz—28 games, .386, 8 homers, 29 RBIs, 27 walks, 29 runs.

•Ramirez—28 games, .349, 6 homers, 27 RBIs, 25 walks, 19 runs.

Good luck trying to replicate that kind of production with an aging, injured Ortiz and a guy who has spent his previous six seasons playing in Pittsburgh. In Boston, Ramirez was the best kind of problem to have. Now he has become a major problem for the Diamondbacks and 14 other teams in the NL.

He admits Ortiz isn't himself yet makes the case that those numbers will be duplicated should the Red Sox make the playoffs this year. The Red Sox aren't given a two game lead right off the bat in the playoffs this year because they did so well in the last few years.

I know a guy that Phil LOVES and played seven seasons in Pittsburgh...Barry Bonds. What the hell does it matter where Jason Bay played?

I think Phil hasn't really been watching the trade deadline the last three years. This episode with Manny was just the worst case of him being a loopy dipshit. Who wants to deal with that every year? At some point, cut the cord. This year was just the best time because the Red Sox have iffy pitching and a lineup with serious issues when trying to predict performance in the playoffs.

And then he moves to the Ivan Rodriguez trade...

Two questions arose when the Tigers dealt Ivan Rodriguez even up for Kyle Farnsworth: Was this a misprint? And, if not, since when has Detroit GM Dave Dombrowski lost his mind?

Lost his mind? For trading Ivan Rodriguez? A guy who's drawn 65 walks...in the last four years combined? A guy who's OPSed .734, .769, .714 and .759 the last four years?

Why?

While Farnsworth has pitched well lately, there are always long stretches when he's unusable. Rodriguez always has been one of the five best catchers in the game during his 18 big-league seasons, including this year.

Okay. Farnsworth's nothing special but he's having a good year and had a really good year in Detroit in 2005 before being traded to Atlanta. With middle relievers, you try to catch a one-year wave of goodness. Farnsworth's been that this year.

But just because Ivan Rodriguez was good eight years ago doesn't mean he's still superlatively good...and that includes this year.

This was an absolute steal for the Yankees, who now may be the team to beat in the AL East. It had to be more about an anti-Rodriguez feeling in the organization than any belief that the Tigers can stay in playoff contention with an improved bullpen.

Steal? Team to beat because of this?

They had to get Rodriguez because Posada's done for the year and their regular catcher was Jose freakin' Molina!

Rodriguez's OPS over the last four years averages to about .740. Guess who's OPSing .740 this year. Jose Bautista of the Pirates. Heard of him? Now picture four years of that and tell me the value of Rodriguez is so wonderful offensively.

Dombrowski insists there's not much difference between the 36-year-old Rodriguez and the next regular catcher, Brandon Inge, making this a net gain for his team...Come on. Detroit has had a tough enough time stopping opponents from scoring runs (an average of 5.1 per game, second-worst in the AL) with Rodriguez behind the plate. He had a 4.22 catcher's ERA; Inge was at 5.50 entering the weekend. This deal simply doesn't add up.

Oh you c'mon. Catcher's ERA? Really? First, it's one of the more flawed statistics out there, only really useful when comparing regular catchers over an entire season, not one that's primarily played third base over the last three years and sporadically catches.

When Nate Robertson gives up eight runs on a given day, Inge is not the primary reason. It's because Nate Robertson is not good at getting outs. And Inge has played 27 games at catcher this year with a few of those being a late defensive replacement.

It's called a small sample size.

So we add a new chapter to the Logic of Phil. 36 year-old catchers who OPS .740 and loopy asshole sluggers should never be traded because they're neat.