February 22, 2009

Phil Watch: He Said It Was Inarguable


Sit back and relax. Grab a soda, maybe a sandwich. We're going to be here awhile.

I think it's going to be the longest Phil Watch ever.

It's been a bit tough to keep up with the Proustian prose and Norman Mailerian output of Phil this last week.

Heck, we've had four entirely unoriginal columns from Phil on Alex Rodriguez just in the last ten days alone. Apparently he didn't feel heard the first time, second or third time.

But Crede was signed by the Twins two days ago so, as usual, Phil takes what should have been a perfunctory column about Crede's value, age, back issues, defense and World Series memories, brings it to stupid-ass heights and proudly declares him a game and division changer.

Let's get started.

You can argue that Joe Crede has been the White Sox's best ballplayer since he arrived in Chicago to stay in 2002. The point is inarguable since 2005, when Magglio Ordonez fled to Detroit for reasons of money and health.

Shit! Bustin' out of the gate! Direct, efficient and absolutely wrong. Two for three but that third one's always a stickler. Fucking truth. Always muckin' me shit up.

Let's look:

2005

Crede: 96 OPS+ (100 is league average), 2.1 Value Wins, .252/.303/.454
Konerko: 136 OPS+, 4.0 Value Wins, .283/.375/.534
Dye: 118 OPS+, 2.5 Value Wins, .274/.333/.512

The term 'ballplayer' that Phil uses isn't accidental. He's trying to be all sly and shit by insinuating that Crede's defense made up for any offensive shortcomings in any given year.

In 2005, Crede's UZR/150 was a pedestrian 6.2 for someone considered a borderline great defensive third baseman. In fact, it regressed from the year before in what should have been during his prime age years. Also, Value Wins factors in defense.

Verdict: Not only arguable, but wrong.

2006

A healthy Crede had a fantastic year in 2006. Really. Just a great freakin' year for him. But...

Crede: 107 OPS+, 4.1 Value Wins, 20.0 VORP .283/.323/.506
Thome: 155 OPS+, 4.7 Value Wins, 62.7 VORP .288/.416/.598
Dye: 151 OPS+, 3.2 Value Wins, 64.5 VORP .315/.385/.622

Look at the VsORP. Putting Thome aside for a second, Dye had a ridiculously good offensive year in 2006. If he had been a league average fielder that year, he would have generated 5.6 Value Wins, something that would have put him in the top 5 in the league. Value Wins figures a player's total output in every phase of the game with positional adjustment, fielding and replacement value relative to every other player in the league. It's very effectively trying to build a better beast.

Now, Thome put up 4.7 Value Wins even with the positional adjustment of DH taking 1.4 runs off that total. Thome played a full season in the field with the Phillies in 2004, playing just above league-average (1.8). Take his physical ailments into account and aging, he would have sinked below league average if he would have played first base for the Sox that year. Still...he did play a half-win better than Crede in 2006 and if he had played first, he would have played close to two wins better, with everything factored in.

Verdict: Entirely arguable and I go with Thome.

2007

The first two years of Phil's little 2005-2008-Crede-Is-The-Best-Sox-Ballplayer argument were not only arguable but pretty much wrong.

2007 is as rotten as dumpster juice poured over a nice piece of wagyu.

Crede: 49 OPS+, 0.1 Value Wins, -11.0 VORP .216/.258/.317

I'm not even doing comparables. Those are abysmal by any standard when it comes to standardized standarding standards.

But hey, he had a 23.9 UZR/150...in 46 games.

Verdict: Wrong in the wrongest way that wrong can be possibly wrong.

2008

Crede: 98 OPS+, 1.9 Value Wins, 6.2 VORP .248/.314/.460
Quentin: 148 OPS+, 4.7 Value Wins, 51.3 VORP .288/.394/.571

Thome had 2.2 Value Wins and Dye had 1.8 last year. Now, Crede had a spectacular April and June in 2008. In fact, I would argue that what Crede did in April helped the team that was a question mark get through what was considered a tough part of the schedule at the time.

But c'mon. Quentin was Quentin last year. 51.3 VORP vs. 6.2. The Sox were a .500 at best without him.

Verdict: Wrong, wrong and wrong with a side of wrong.

SO...a cogent argument, though not by me, could be made for 2006 only. And I didn't even do pitchers.

But with the other years...



...With Crede migrating from the defending champion Sox, the Twins become favorites to win their fifth division title in eight seasons under the brilliantly simple Ron Gardenhire. They could move into the status of clear favorites if general manager Bill Smith finishes a second deal he's been working on for weeks — a sign-and-trade deal to acquire free-agent reliever Juan Cruz without losing his second-round pick.

We know that Phil has the new Baseball Prospectus handbook (or a website subscription). He's been belching out statistics from the site anytime he needs something to back up his musings all spring training.

In fact, just yesterday, in one of his 8,000 columns on A-Rod, he told us:
Baseball Prospectus assigns Rodriguez a 46.1 VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) rating. That's higher than either of the heralded newcomers, CC Sabathia (43.6) and Mark Teixeira (38.5).
Do you know what the guys at BP 'assigned' Crede? 1.0 VORP. One. With a ceiling of 2.7.

So according to BP, Crede will contribute one run above a replacement player next year with a ceiling of 2.7 runs over a replacement player output, offensively (VORP doesn't take into account defense). Not league-average. Replacement level. A team populated with replacement-level players would win 25 games on average over a 162-game season.

So...Crede is essentially a replacement player offensively with his defense being the X-factor. He's coming off two back surgeries so you can't, with any degree of certainty, predict that he will be the same defensive player he was before the injury. Heck, you can't even really predict defense for a healthy player with any degree of accuracy.

To wit: Aramis Ramirez, throughout his career, has repeatedly put up fielding run numbers in the negatives. Inexplicably, he had 11 fielding runs in 2007, a number that surpasses every fielding run total Crede has ever produced except 2006 (15.6 FR).

You make sense of that and I'll give ya a little sum'un-sum'un.

The fact is you can only ballpark defense with a good sample size and demonstrated health (bad will most likely be bad and good will probably be good with a decent sample size). But even then, it's a fairly big potential production range.

Phil doesn't cherry-pick, though. Fuck VORP when it gums up the works. Did I mention Crede's projected VORP was 1.0?

Twins officials downplayed Sunday the chance of acquiring Cruz. Perhaps they were still in shock after actually seeing Crede in a Minnesota uniform.

Holy Shit! Joe Crede's in camp! I'm speechless! Where are the disciples? I'm a huge Bartholomew fan!

BTW, here's the comparables for Crede that BP compiled:

I don't know about you, but I shit my pants every time Steve Buechele walks into a room. And Ed Sprague? For-get it.

Before signing Crede, the Twins had done almost nothing this winter. Smith pursued Casey Blake unsuccessfully while adding only Luis Ayala and knuckleballer R.A. Dickey.

So...the signing of...Crede...makes them the...favorites? And Juan Cruz makes them...clear favorites?

But the signing of Crede, along with Nick Punto's move from third base to shortstop, should give the Twins the kind of solid infield that once backed Brad Radke, Johan Santana, Kenny Rogers and a young Kyle Lohse.

Heck yeah! Add Crede's 1.0 VORP to Nick Punto's -3.9 VORP and you've got yourself a stew goin'.

Third base, like power hitting, had been one of the White Sox's regular edges over Minnesota. The last time Crede was outplayed by a Twins third baseman was 2004, when Corey Koskie hit 25 home runs. But the measure of Crede has always been his glove as much as clutch hitting.

There's no such thing as a clutch hitter, Phil. Seriously, look it up. I'll have an entire post on this soon, right after the BRE TOA 3, brought to you by VUUUUUUCCCCC!

It's entirely random. There is clutch hitting, to be observed after the fact. "Team X was a great clutch-hitting team last year." But you can't say a particular player is a clutch hitter year in and year out. Seriously, pick any random player and check out all the relevant clutch-hitting statistics over the course of his career. They're typically right in line with his overall production and vary wildly year to year.

Crede's averages by year (RISP, 2-out RISP, Late & Close, September)

2005: .286 .232 .289 .371
2006: .343 .351 .237 .179
2007: .298 .292 .296 DNP
2008: .271 .190 .220 .250 (1-4)

He's all over the map. Take 2006 out of the equation, the year Crede was at the absolutely prime production age of 28, and he was pretty average, only better in relation to himself. That doesn't make him a clutch hitter when he's a below average offensive player overall. It's just making up for his crappiness by being less crappy. And that's no way to go through life.

While Crede was limited to 97 games by recurring back problems, he and the other Sox third basemen, Josh Fields and the also-departed Juan Uribe, had a league-high 378 assists last season, 73 more than Minnesota got from Brian Buscher and six other third basemen. Mark Buehrle figures that number would have been higher had Crede been able to go the distance.

Do the Twins get to sign Fields and Uribe as well?

Oh, and Phil's using assists? They also had the second-most total chances, 80 more than league-average (coincidently, the Twins were league-average) and committed the most errors (33) with Crede booting 20 of them in 'limited action' last year.

With agent Scott Boras setting a year-at-a-time contract pace, Crede never had a multiyear deal with the Sox. He would have been in line for a big contract this winter if not for the back injury, which limited him to 144 games over the last two years.

I know! Teams are just throwing money around this year! It's insane. Look at all the money a guy Baseball Prospectus says will have a VORP 22 times greater than Crede got.

C'mon. What would a team give a 31 year-old third baseman with a career .306 OBP and 98 OPS+...even without the back injury...even not taking this economy into account.

What? 4 years/$40 million? Big money?

What the point of all the speculation anyway?

Crede without a bad back is a guy you want on your team at a reasonable price, especially if he learns to walk more as he ages. Absolutely. I don't hate Joe Crede.

But in this realm, on this Earth, in this time, on this temporal plane, Joe Crede has a bad back.

Because of Crede's back, as well as the availability of possible replacements in Fields, Dayan Viciedo and Gordon Beckham, his departure hasn't caused as much angst for Sox fans as it may have. They see almost all players as disposable parts, in part because Ozzie Guillen produced a championship in the first season after the loss of Ordonez and Carlos Lee.

Disposable? Has Phil ever talked to a Sox fan? I got into a debate with one last year because he thought Nick Masset was untouchable. (Cripes, a ton of them bemoaned the loss of Uribe. This same shit happened after the Angels won the series in '02. Everybody was untouchable, even if they sucked stinky chicken ass. But I digress.)

Ordonez, another Boras client, suffered a knee injury in 2004 that allowed him to play only 52 games. It severely damaged his free-agent value the next winter, but Boras put together a creative deal with the Detroit Tigers, who have gotten 73 home runs and 346 RBIs from Ordonez the last three years. He played only 82 games in '05 but has since raised his average to 135 games since leaving Chicago.

I've seen Magglio Ordoñez, watched him play, seen his statistics. Mr. Crede, you are no Magglio Ordoñez.

Boras believes Crede can make an even better comeback, with a second surgery last fall finishing the repair that the one in 2007 started. The artificial turf at the Metrodome won't be ideal, but Boras doesn't expect it to be a major issue.

Well shit, if Boras says so.

And on to Phil. 'Isn't ideal' is what Phil offers today. Just three weeks ago, Phil offered this:
The Twins continue to talk to Joe Crede, but would 81 home games on turf make sense for a guy with back problems? He'd be a better fit in San Francisco or Houston.
What's changed in three weeks? Oh, we here at Phil Watch remember, Phil. Even when you don't.

If Crede stays on the field, he will make the Twins better. They were essentially intact after winning 88 games a year ago, so if they are better they have to be the favorites.

Okay. The Twins are a fine little team. And Crede's a fine little addition with moderate upside. But regressing to the mean may be the mantra in the Twin Cities this year.

They hit .305 with runners in scoring position last year, nearly 20 points higher than the next-best team. Heck, they hit 26 points higher than the two teams - Cubs and Angels - that won the most games in each league last year. Ain't happening again, my peeps.

They hit .276 the year before with largely the same lineup, .296 in 2006 and .271 in 2005.

See! Clutch-hitting is not predictive and largely random.

You. Don't. Bank. On. It.

February 15, 2009

Phil Watch: Only Cuz It's About The Angels


It's encouraging that Phil got himself a subscription to Baseball Prospectus. It's not encouraging that he's chosen to barely use it.

C'mon. Dig in there, Phil. Dig in there.

Let's get started.

While the White Sox grappled with the knowledge that baseball's leading think tank had pegged them to go from first to worst in the American League Central, the chronically underachieving Los Angeles Angels reacted to an ugly projection of their own. According to Baseball Prospectus, they were poised to finish behind Oakland, failing to win the AL West for only the second time in six years.

Okay. Here's the thing. The reason the Angels won 100 games last year was because they played in the crap hole that is the AL West. They went 26-12 against the Rangers and Mariners last year combined, 10-9 against the A's. It's entirely reasonable to think those records will be repeated, leaving them 15 games over .500 again this year against their division.

The Angels also get the pleasure of playing the NL West in interleague play this year. Last year, they went 6-3 against the NL East. Again, entirely reasonable to think they can repeat that against the NL West. That's now 18 games over .500. If the team goes .500 against the rest of the AL - again, entirely reasonable given the weird off-season - they're 90-72.

I don't doubt the minds at BP - baseball minds greater than mine - but I think they undershot the individual expected performances of the Angels this year, especially w/r/t offense. I think they erred on the side of caution given the fact that so many first-year players and young players coming off injuries are expected to play.

Unlike the Sox, the Angels opted to do some last-minute shopping from the bargain bin, and they're going to be glad they did. General manager Tony Reagins didn't say no when Bobby Abreu fell into his lap and quickly made up the Angels' perceived deficit.

Yes. Reagins only made the move once the PECOTA computer projections told him he needed to.

The BP computer adjusted the Angels from 80 to 84 victories, which is enough to make Mike Scioscia's team again a division favorite, if not by as wide a margin as you would think.

The surprise wasn't that the Angels won't win 100 games again. I was that PECOTA had them under .500. So who's 'you', Phil. You? High 80s in wins was probably expected by every reasonable Angels fan with the Rangers and Mariners once again diligently holding themselves to the position of not fielding a competitive team.

The Angels won 100 games last season and have averaged 94 victories over the last five seasons. But they are at least somewhat vulnerable in the mild, mild West after losing Mark Teixeira, Francisco Rodriguez, Jon Garland and Garret Anderson.

Technically, the Angels had a better winning percentage without Teixeira last year (.662 vs. .617).

The team will have a better bullpen without Frankie this year. Book it.

Jon Garland? How will they replace his 4.90 ERA? Or his 5.99 ERA after the break? The horror!

Rivera replaced Anderson before the Abreu signing. $20 bet on who performs better this year. Now, Abreu replaces Anderson. $100,000 bet on who performs better this year.

However, their lineup looks a lot better with the talented Abreu in left field rather than a mix of Terry Evans, Reggie Willits, Juan Rivera and Gary Matthews Jr. It's hard to believe you can get a potential 100 runs-100 RBIs guy for $5 million and incentives, but Abreu simply had slipped between the cracks.

Terry Evans? Listed first? Cripes!

They just signed Rivera to a $13 million deal to play left and DH!

Terry Evans won't even sniff the majors this year on any regular basis. Not a whiff. It's obvious that Phil WENT to Baseball Prospectus. They don't even have Evans getting one at-bat. Terry Evans? It would be like telling a Sox fan that Donny Lucy will see time behind the plate this year and you would say, "Who?" and I would say, "Exactly."

Abreu, who'll turn 35 in March, had a .371 on-base percentage and stole 22 bases to go along with 20 home runs last season. He figures to be on base regularly when Vladimir Guerrero hits, as Scioscia's most likely batting order has Abreu second, Guerrero third and Torii Hunter fourth.

Phil says this because Mike DiGiovanna of the LA Times said it two days ago. At least he kept it in the family.

Now, I know Scioscia has talked about it and it's probably the "plan" entering spring training but it won't be the case by mid-April. Kendrick's a prototypical #2 hitter and will hit there. It's probably motivational crap to get Kendrick to feel a bit marginalized and have him realize that taking a walk and staying healthy is a good thing.

It's Figgins, Kendrick, Abreu, Guerrero, Hunter, Rivera, Napoli, Morales and Aybar. Book it.

"I'll like hitting in front of Vladdy," Abreu said. "My type of game specifically is to be on base and score some runs. I still have my speed."

See. Nothing that says the two-hole specifically. Just 'in front of Vladdy' (God, I hate all the Angels' nicknames. Every one is shortened by half with a 'y' on the end. Thanks, Rex Hudler. Dope.)

The signing of the left-handed-hitting Abreu addressed an imbalance. The Angels hit 11 points higher against left-handers than right-handers last year and were tilting even more in that direction without Anderson and Teixeira.

This one's oddly constructed. Every team in baseball has this type of split for the most part. Anderson is left-handed and typically hit both evenly. Teixeira was an Angel for two freakin' months. There was no dramatic disparity among the LHB v. RH, RHB v. LH, blah, blah, blah.
All hovered in the .260-.270 range. Oh, there is one. The BABIP for LHB v. LH (small size) and LHB in general was above .290 typical, meaning some luck was involved. Therefore, not really relevant.

Just say they needed a middle-of-the-order guy who is left-handed. There. Done. All the other left-handed hitting options before Abreu were switch-hitting slap hitters. See. Easy.

Like Milwaukee's signing of Braden Looper, this was a good move. Those two made a lot more sense than last week's other big free-agent signing — the two-year deal that Adam Dunn took from Washington.

Dunn wanted to play for a contender. The Cubs had been his first choice, but he turned to Houston after the Milton Bradley signing. He would have helped the Astros, but GM Ed Wade couldn't scare up the money to make it happen.


I agree. Houston better be on the verge of bankruptcy because a signing of Dunn and a decent #3 starter would have absolutely put them right in the mix in the Central. For hardly any money, they would have been a contender. It's inexplicable. Wolf and Dunn would have cost the team $15 million this year according to the contracts they signed. Ugh. Just hand the Cubs the division. It's not like the Cardinals are doing anything smart. They signed Kyle freakin' Lohse for four years at $10 million a year!

I wonder if Phil will mention that sort of stupidity regarding Lohse, Phil's pet baby last Spring Training.

One last nugget.

On Milwaukee signing Braden Looper:

Melvin hopes Looper enjoys the home clubhouse at Miller Park more than he did the visiting clubhouse. He has a mark of 0-4 with a 7.01 ERA in 252/3 innings in the retractable-roof stadium.

Where to begin? When Looper pitched in Milwaukee in the past, he faced batters that wore a Brewers uniform unless I'm mistaken and there are secret games being played behind my back.

Now, I guess it's possible that Looper's karma doesn't translate in Wisconsin. Or maybe he doesn't like the restaurant selection in the city or a particular Brewer fan continuously gives him a hard time and it hurts his feelings.

But park stats for pitchers don't translate when he goes to that team because he's not facing players that knocked the shit out of him in the past.

So when Looper takes the mound this year in a Milwaukee uniform, he will never have to face Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Corey Hart and J.J. Hardy.

Why those five guys? Because they've hit a combined .441 off Looper.

Just a thought.