Phil Watch: It's Been Awhile

Last night's 11-3 loss to the Orioles coupled with the Twins' come-from-behind win proves yet again that Kenny Williams and Ozzie Guillen are too arrogant to understand the complexities and importance of every game in August.

Uhhh...wait. Jay doesn't write for a Chicago newspaper anymore.

But unlike Jay, I don't want Phil to go away. He's my muse, a man truly tapped into the mind of dippy Chicago Baseball Fans (an Icky Eight contender in BRE's TOA-AE).

He does the work so I don't have to.

When Mate, Rube and I used to play pickle in Mate's side yard, conversations like this used to happen.

We were eight.

Sox are Cubs' worst nightmare

Nightmare scenario for North Siders is finally getting to World Series and seeing team with nothing to lose

Beware the sneak attack.

I think that's a gay joke and it's entirely uncalled for.

In baseball, more than any other sport, it's unwise to draw attention to yourself. First-round draft picks who come with hype often turn out to be Corey Patterson or Kip Wells. The trades that don't make big headlines, like the White Sox's deal for Carlos Quentin, often turn out to be a lot better than the ones that are analyzed in day-by-day detail for weeks, like the Mets' addition of Johan Santana.

Boy, it HAS been awhile. Christo forgets.

Um...yeah. Phil himself gave Johan Santana a reach-around by comparing him to Sandy Koufax and Bob Gibson a mere eight months ago and thought giving up Chris Carter was another bad move by Kenny because - drum-roll - giving up prospects is bad.

So...you know...hype and big headlines...Phil means his own oeuvre.

Just ask those New York Yankees. They have won exactly one of their last six playoff series—being "upset" by Florida (2003), Boston ('04), the Angels ('05), Detroit ('06) and Cleveland ('07)—and find themselves awaiting regular-season extinction this time around. Headlines, sadly, are like Alex Rodriguez. They can't hit in the clutch.

I'm already tired. I have the demented melancholy of a Tennessee Williams heroine.

Alex Rodriguez has a lifetime .303 average with RISP. He's hit...oh, hell, just go here.

It seems Jay may be going to Boston. Maybe Phil wants to go to New York? He'd fit right in with the 'JETER RULES!' crowd.

This brings me to the newest nightmare scenario for the Cubs: A date with the White Sox in the World Series.

[Flashback to 1980] "Rube, you're a pud. No way the Brewers'll play the White Sox in the playoffs."

"Yeah they will. Shut up. Ben Oglivie and Moose Haas are awesome!"

"The White Sox are going to win the World Series. Burns and Dotson are more awesome."

"What if the Cubs played the White Sox in the World Series?"

"Shut up, Christo. The Cubs suck."

"Let's go to Casey's and get Suzy-Qs."

There's little doubt the Lou Crew is not only the best team in Chicago but the best in the majors. No lineup is as deep as the one that goes from Alfonso Soriano through Jim Edmonds and Reed Johnson. No rotation is as talented and as durable as the one that begins with Carlos Zambrano and runs through Jason Marquis. No bullpen has more impact arms than the one with Kerry Wood, Carlos Marmol and Jeff Samardzija.

"The Cubs are so awesome, man, they're so awesome, Samardzija rules! Go Cubs, YEAH! WOOOOOOOO!!!!!

But the Cubs won't want any part of the White Sox in October. If this is going to be the year the North Siders scratch their 100-year itch, it won't include a matchup against the Sox in October.

DINGDINGDINGDING!!!! And that's the one ga-jillionth time I've heard about the '100-year itch' in the last month.

Under normal circumstances, I am one of those rare people who believe Chicago's baseball fans should all get along—that it's silly to root against the Cubs just because you're a White Sox fan, or vice versa. But these are hardly normal circumstances, right?

Shouldn't this really be the normal circumstances? Or maybe the circumstances that put mindless platitudes to the test? All Chicago Baseball Fans (IECITBREsTOA-AE) should probably worry about their own damn team ALL THE TIME!

With five weekends left before baseball's postseason passion play begins, it's looking more and more likely that the Cubs and White Sox will both earn spots in the field. It has only been 102 years since that happened.

Umm. The Cubs are in but I'd ask White Sox fans whether it seems 'more and more likely' that the Sox will earn a spot in the playoffs.

The Cubs were expected to make it. The White Sox, leading the American League Central by two games and almost even with Boston on the wild-card landscape, would be surprise guests—the worst kind from the perspective of other teams. A team with almost nothing to lose.

But, but, but, but...Phil just said it's 'more and more likely'! Christo needs a drink.

We're getting ahead of ourselves, sure. But imagine the fear and loathing in Wrigleyville if the Cubs advance to the World Series for the first time since 1945 and have to start the event at U.S. Cellular Field, where Michael Barrett couldn't budge A.J. Pierzynski with a sucker punch, where Jerry Reinsdorf put staffers in tuxedos to deliver World Series rings to Mark Buehrle and the fellows a mere 29 months ago.

"I think Jerry Stenulson is going to hit a thousand home runs in Pony League next year."

Wouldn't it be just like the Cubs to put together arguably their best team ever and have it lose the World Series to a White Sox team that had been picked for third place or worse?

At least he didn't write 'ultimate irony'. I'm trying to find the bright side of things, here.

He also didn't write "Dusty Baker should be managing this team. He deserves it."

See. Good things have come from this.

More to the point, wouldn't it be just like the White Sox once again to outplay their crosstown neighbors with the bigger fan base, superior resources and historic ballpark?

Anybody else love what Obama said about Cub fans yesterday? And Derrek Lee agreeing with it? And the calls to 670 from Cub fans?

'Member that? That was awesome.

While the Cubs have continued to stretch their margin for making the playoffs—a comfortable 10 games when their sweep of Pittsburgh was completed Wednesday—the White Sox have shown strong signs of outlasting Minnesota for their second AL Central title in the last four years.

Wouldn't it be awesome if the Sox could play the Reds and Pirates 18 times a year? And the entire NL West. That would be awesome.

They are pitching well again—compiling a 3.98 staff ERA in August after marks of 4.44 in July and 5.14 in June—in part because lefty Clayton Richard and right-hander Lance Broadway have more than filled Jose Contreras' spot.

Filling in so well that they have a combined 6.81 ERA. I don't think any Sox fan wants to rely on these two right now.

They go to Boston this weekend with a chance to be measured head-to-head with the defending World Series champion Red Sox, who are in what has become a three teams-for-two playoff spots battle with the White Sox and Minnesota. Most analysts favor Chicago's Sox to last into October.

Well, shit. Let's end the season. Analysts favor the Sox. Let's call it by acclamation.

Any team that makes it to October is a threat to win it all.

Thank You, Captain Obvious.

Imagine how Cub fans are going to feel if their supposed once-every-century season ends with them being overshadowed by the White Sox, of all surprise guests.

"Girls are bleeeecccchhhh!"

Phil Watch: Making Up For Milquetoast

Quick stat for Sox fans: Starting Monday, the Twins play 30 of their next 45 games on the road.

On to Phil.

It's been a positively boring Phil Watch world for the last two weeks.

Last week, he told us that the Cubs and the Brewers are good bets for the post-season, which was kind of predicting that the ground gets wet when it rains.

A few days ago, Phil made up imaginary people in his head that were screaming for the Cubs to make a trade at the deadline and told us that these imaginary people were silly.

In short, he couldn't have been more dull if his name was Dull Dullerson.

But he gets up, dusts himself off and jumps back on the horse today.

It's vintage Phil, equivalent to a beautiful 2000 Bourdeaux.

Let's get started.

Ramirez gives the popgun-hitting Dodgers enough punch to overcome Arizona in baseball's lightweight division, the National League West. His departure, coming at a time when David Ortiz isn't himself because of a wrist injury, could leave the Red Sox without the runs they will need to catch Tampa Bay and hold off the New York Yankees in the American League East.

Okaaayyy. The Dodgers offense was indeed bad before acquiring Ramirez and taking him out of the Red Sox lineup of course will have an impact.

Manny's OPSing .936 this year. Jason Bay's OPSing .906, so there's an ever-so-slight dropoff there when talking about purely offensive numbers.

But the team's decision to dump him hardly has anything to do with purely offensive numbers. It had to do with the fact that Manny may be fucking nuts. In the span of two weeks, he told Red Sox ownership to fuck off, accused them of racism, pushed a 64 year-old traveling secretary to the ground for not having tickets for him, decided that running hard was now optional and continued to show that playing bad defense is the stuff of comedy, not part of the job. All that in a period of two weeks.

Would you go into the off-season with his $20 million option hanging over the team, with no hand to play w/r/t trading him and continue to listen to him blather on to the media about how gutless/racist/dishonest ownership is?

All that for two months of Manny's offense in a year when the Red Sox starting pitching is NOT anything stellar and the bullpen's terribly mediocre. This is not the '07 Red Sox. It's a bit of a patchwork going nowhere, really. Time to give the team a reasonable chance this year while keeping a firm eye on building a contender for next year, which they did while jettisoning a cartoon character whose act had grown woefully tiresome.

It's true that the deal gives Ramirez exactly what he and his agent, Boras, wanted. The Red Sox agreed to erase Ramirez's 2009 and '10 options in exchange for him approving the trade. But it's crazy to think Ramirez wouldn't have been productive the next couple of months. He needed to keep his value high in case he did wind up as a free agent.

Again. Production's not really an issue. It's the fact that he wouldn't have shut up. All the shit he said about ownership was absolutely calculated. He forced it by being an over-the-top asshole.

But here's the flawed logic here. Why would Manny lose any money on the free agent market if he didn't produce as a Red Sox in August and September if he's so wonderful? And erasing the option years was a bit of a no-brainer for the Sox. The trade was going to happen in some form so doing it was no loss for the team. It was no longer their problem. It just meant they would get a little less in return as the team getting him loses the option/s.

They got Jason Bay in return, a guy that can approximate Ramirez's numbers and is signed for $7.5M next year, a $12.5M savings over Manny without the assholishness and is seven years younger.

For 16 years, Ramirez has done two things: made his employers scratch their heads and driven in runs like nobody else in his generation. He was hitting .299 with 20 homers and 68 RBIs at the time of the trade, putting him on track for his 10th 100-RBI season in the last 11 years.

And here's where it gets really stupid.

Manny's played on two teams in his career - Boston and Cleveland - that were built as perennial playoff contenders. Sure, in part because of Manny but only in part. Look at the rosters of every team he's played for.

He's a first ballot Hall of Famer. No doubt. But cripes! He better drive in 100 runs a year on those teams.

And since the last two weeks have been all Manny all the time in the media, stupid-ass commentators have found it proper to say that he's the best right-handed hitter of his generation bar none, which is patent bullshit.

Alex Rodriguez is the best player in baseball period. And he played a full two-thirds of his career on wildly mediocre-to-shitass Seattle and Texas teams. Their career numbers are nearly identical even given the protection and lack thereof for each player.

To say 'bar none' is just fucking stupid.

Maybe, but no one should underestimate Ramirez's value as a run producer. No matter how far manager Terry Francona and veterans like Jason Varitek and Mike Lowell go to welcome him to Boston, Bay will feel pressure like he never has.

Who's underestimating Manny's value? More imaginary people in Phil's head?

And I missed the symposium on Jason Bay's fragile psyche. It's not Iraq.

As much as pitching from guys like Josh Beckett and Derek Lowe, it was the 3-4 combination of Ortiz and Ramirez that allowed Boston to end its 86-year World Series drought with two championships in four years. Here are the '04 and '07 postseason numbers from those two:

•Ortiz—28 games, .386, 8 homers, 29 RBIs, 27 walks, 29 runs.

•Ramirez—28 games, .349, 6 homers, 27 RBIs, 25 walks, 19 runs.

Good luck trying to replicate that kind of production with an aging, injured Ortiz and a guy who has spent his previous six seasons playing in Pittsburgh. In Boston, Ramirez was the best kind of problem to have. Now he has become a major problem for the Diamondbacks and 14 other teams in the NL.

He admits Ortiz isn't himself yet makes the case that those numbers will be duplicated should the Red Sox make the playoffs this year. The Red Sox aren't given a two game lead right off the bat in the playoffs this year because they did so well in the last few years.

I know a guy that Phil LOVES and played seven seasons in Pittsburgh...Barry Bonds. What the hell does it matter where Jason Bay played?

I think Phil hasn't really been watching the trade deadline the last three years. This episode with Manny was just the worst case of him being a loopy dipshit. Who wants to deal with that every year? At some point, cut the cord. This year was just the best time because the Red Sox have iffy pitching and a lineup with serious issues when trying to predict performance in the playoffs.

And then he moves to the Ivan Rodriguez trade...

Two questions arose when the Tigers dealt Ivan Rodriguez even up for Kyle Farnsworth: Was this a misprint? And, if not, since when has Detroit GM Dave Dombrowski lost his mind?

Lost his mind? For trading Ivan Rodriguez? A guy who's drawn 65 walks...in the last four years combined? A guy who's OPSed .734, .769, .714 and .759 the last four years?

Why?

While Farnsworth has pitched well lately, there are always long stretches when he's unusable. Rodriguez always has been one of the five best catchers in the game during his 18 big-league seasons, including this year.

Okay. Farnsworth's nothing special but he's having a good year and had a really good year in Detroit in 2005 before being traded to Atlanta. With middle relievers, you try to catch a one-year wave of goodness. Farnsworth's been that this year.

But just because Ivan Rodriguez was good eight years ago doesn't mean he's still superlatively good...and that includes this year.

This was an absolute steal for the Yankees, who now may be the team to beat in the AL East. It had to be more about an anti-Rodriguez feeling in the organization than any belief that the Tigers can stay in playoff contention with an improved bullpen.

Steal? Team to beat because of this?

They had to get Rodriguez because Posada's done for the year and their regular catcher was Jose freakin' Molina!

Rodriguez's OPS over the last four years averages to about .740. Guess who's OPSing .740 this year. Jose Bautista of the Pirates. Heard of him? Now picture four years of that and tell me the value of Rodriguez is so wonderful offensively.

Dombrowski insists there's not much difference between the 36-year-old Rodriguez and the next regular catcher, Brandon Inge, making this a net gain for his team...Come on. Detroit has had a tough enough time stopping opponents from scoring runs (an average of 5.1 per game, second-worst in the AL) with Rodriguez behind the plate. He had a 4.22 catcher's ERA; Inge was at 5.50 entering the weekend. This deal simply doesn't add up.

Oh you c'mon. Catcher's ERA? Really? First, it's one of the more flawed statistics out there, only really useful when comparing regular catchers over an entire season, not one that's primarily played third base over the last three years and sporadically catches.

When Nate Robertson gives up eight runs on a given day, Inge is not the primary reason. It's because Nate Robertson is not good at getting outs. And Inge has played 27 games at catcher this year with a few of those being a late defensive replacement.

It's called a small sample size.

So we add a new chapter to the Logic of Phil. 36 year-old catchers who OPS .740 and loopy asshole sluggers should never be traded because they're neat.