Phil Watch: Bring Back Ortman!

I went old school on the Phil pic today.

Feeling nostalgic.

Today, Phil channels his inner Score caller.

"I think the Sox should trade some prospects for Pujols!"

To preface today's Whispers, remember that Phil told Hendry three weeks ago that he "must pursue Ganderson." And in that piece, he said:

"If Dombrowski wants to talk about Carlos Marmol, potentially a closer for the next two or three years, and Starlin Castro, who could have a Shawon Dunston impact and tenure at shortstop, Hendry should be willing. Granderson -- at this point in his career -- is worth paying a huge price to get."

Let's get started.

The Tigers continue to have trade talks involving Edwin Jackson and Granderson, with both situations likely to come to a conclusion at the winter meetings in Indianapolis. The Cubs are serious about Granderson but have made it known they won't give up Carlos Marmol or Starlin Castro. The Tigers instead could ask for right-hander Andrew Cashner and third baseman Josh Vitters. ...

The Tigers could also ask for a Cuisinart rotisserie cooker, a Kindle and a tiger-striped Snuggie as well, all hot holiday presents this year.

First, the Yankees and Angels are in on Granderson as well, two teams with a million more trading chips than the Cubs.

Second, it would have to be SO MUCH more than Cashner and Vitters, the latter proving this year that he's a rather ordinary prospect that doesn't add much to a trade involving a player of Granderson's ability, payroll commitment and age.

Phil will not question Hendry. Never has.

Callis over at Baseball America couldn't have foreseen the stupidity that would ensue in this town when he ranked Castro #1 on this year's top 10 organizational list. Well, he probably did. He's writing from Chicago.

But until Castro shows he can be something other than a bit of a slap-hitting shortstop with a potentially good glove and a terrible walk rate, he shouldn't be untouchable. Not if you can get a guy like Granderson, proven to be one of the best center fielders in the game rather than keeping a possibly decent little shortstop in three years.

Granderson, 28, is owed $5.5 million next year ($8.25M in 2011 and $10M in 2012 with a 2013 club option). In the last four years, he's averaged $19.4M in win value and a 4.9 UZR/150.

I have no idea why the Tigers let Ordoñez's $18M option vest and then turn around and shop Granderson and his $5.5M for next year. But this is a team that has $47.5M committed to Nate Robertson, Jeremy Bonderman, Dontrelle Willis and Carlos Guillen in 2010. They will win no awards for Most Responsible Spending. True. By benching Ordoñez sufficiently enough in 2009, they did avoid the 270-start, two-year trigger (he started 102 games) for the 2011 option of $15 million to be guaranteed, so good for them.

But it's still inexplicable to me why dumping $5.5M Granderson is some sort of priority. Given that, if they deal him, they won't be taking a package with the likes of Cashner and Vitters included. Dombrowski was probably seeing if anyone would blow him away with a ridiculous package. Phil's Cubs package is not one of those.

Scouts from the Tigers and other AL teams are looking at Jake Fox in the Dominican Republic. He hit a combined .326-28-97 between Triple A and the Cubs last season but has nowhere to play. ...

Oh, but hell! If you throw in a 27 year-old guy who can't play the field and had basically one good year, DEAL DONE!

It's absolutely imperative, if you're going to be a national baseball writer, to offer up something that seems plausible, not just possible. If you give simply possibilities, then you're a reporter. And not a good one.

If you think Cashner, Vitters and Fox get you Granderson, you would be mistaken. Dombrowski is still getting killed for the Jair Jurrjens and Gorkys Hernandez for Edgar Renteria trade.

This is not analysis. This is wishful thinking. It's Score caller thinking.

According to figures published by Baseball America, the two best fastballs in the Arizona Fall League belong to Nationals No. 1 pick Stephen Strasburg and White Sox reliever Sergio Santos, the latter a former first-round pick of the Diamondbacks who played infield until 2009.

Sigh. It's not the best fastballs. It's fastballs with maximum velocity. HUGE difference.

Best fastballs would be something combining velocity with effectiveness. This is not that.

Why did the Astros give Carlos Lee a no-trade clause in his deal two years ago? Without it, he could be shopped to the Red Sox, among others. ...

Because they probably had to, kind sir. Lee wouldn't have signed it.

Question why a team would give Lee six years and $100 million. That's legit. He plays bad defense in left, doesn't walk and generally has a crappy attitude about everything. Lee gets his numbers and seems to be fine with that, kind of like a poor man's Albert Belle.

But if anybody is paying a player $100 million, in what world would that player not also demand a no-trade clause? In a weird way, the Astros should be commended for backloading the contract and getting the no-trade clause to expire in 2010. They're not going to be locked into the last two years of Carlos Lee at $18.5 million per year if they don't want to.

So, signing Lee was the original sin. He's been paid $41.5 million by the Astros in the last three years and has played to a $39.6 million value. Pretty much a push in pure dollars. You want more out of Lee, sure. His last three years are at $18.5 million per year so the Astros gave the last three years to Lee at a value he's never reached in Win Values. That's pretty stupid given those last three years are for Lee's 34-36 age years. But again, they're only really exposed to one real bad year and that's next year. 2011 and 2012 are entirely open to the "Trade Lee's Ass" banner at Minute Maid because they can.

See...opinion. That's surprisingly easy. Give it a go sometime.

Brent Morel has shot past Dayan Viciedo as the White Sox's third baseman of the future. He's a natural hitter, which he showed when he joined the Arizona Fall League at midseason and hit .372 in his first 12 games, including an 8-for-11 showing in three games last week. ...

Morel led the AFL with a .435 average in 62 ABs (half-season). That's good.

But is this what we're doing now? We're taking the already stupid projection of a prospect after an AFL performance done in an already short fall season comprised of typically 120 ABs and we're now projecting a prospect who played in half of an already short fall season?

Morel seems like someone to keep an eye on but let's see how he does above class A ball before crowning him the Third Baseman Of The Future. How 'about it? Sound good? Viciedo doesn't look like anything special but at least his numbers were compiled in Double A and it was in his first season in American ball. I think the jury might still be out on any usurping.

I'm sure Phil saw Morel's 25 stolen bases and wet himself but consider this. Adam Dunn stole 24 bases in class A ball in 2000. Let's see how Morel does when he's not facing a 55th round draft pick from Assfuck, Iowa before lavishing praise upon him.

Just some measured praise. Just some.

A's GM Billy Beane is encouraged by pitcher Fautino de los Santos' recovery from Tommy John surgery. De los Santos, a headliner in the deal that sent Nick Swisher to the White Sox, was throwing 95 mph in the Instructional League, according to Beane.

Phil is going to be right about Fautino if it kills him.

Remember. When Phil had an accident in his pants for the hard-throwing righty, he was just a pup who hadn't pitched above A ball.

He's now 24, coming off TJS and has thrown 33 innings in the last two years, none above A ball and 2009's 11 innings were in rookie ball.

And let's look at that "headliner" claim.

Four players were involved: Swisher, Gio Gonzalez, Ryan Sweeney and De Los Santos.

Swisher was THE headliner because he was, you know, a major league player with a track record.

Gonzalez was the original Phil lament and we were offered copious amounts of updates on Gio's progress by Phil. And then it stopped...because Gio was bad. 6.24 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP since arriving in Oakland. He strikes out a lot of guys only when he finds the strike zone. His 5.1 walks/9 would have been the worst in baseball among players with 90 innings or more pitched if Ian Snell wasn't just a tick (.04) worse. His WHIP was the 7th most. With Peavy, Buehrle, Danks, Floyd and Hudson, Gio is no longer part of the discussion in any way, shape or form.

We were told as well by Phil in June, 2008 that if Ryan Sweeney would have been on the White Sox, he would have made the White Sox a better team by helping supplement an aging core. You know, the team that won the division.

Now Fautino is 'a headliner' in Phil's strange recollection. Is everyone a headliner? Seems like a player can't really be a headliner if everyone's a headliner. It's like the Monday Night Football crew calling everyone "Great!" If everyone's great, then the definition of 'great' is no longer valid.

Nice job, Phil. Channel your inner Larry King.

Phil Watch: Off-Season Phil Is Back!

It's my favorite time of year.

Phil doesn't have games to passively watch and wax wrongly on so we get Phil letting his brain wander.

Wonderful thing, that - a wandering Phil brain.

It's similar in ways to letting your dog do whatever the hell she wants. Terrible things tend to happen.

Like Phil's Whispers...ear to the ground, all that crap.

Many in the Cubs' front office think they would be foolish to give up Starlin Castro to get Curtis Granderson, but there are a lot of other ways to do the deal.

Alright! Starlin Castro better be the second coming of Hanley Ramirez because I'm sick of hearing about a guy with 122 plate appearances above A ball and, though only 19, seems to be a bit of slap hitter with a 6.7% walk rate.

It might be different if Castro was in a real minor league system with...you know...real prospects. He's not. The Cubs' system was ranked 27th last year in all of baseball. Expect that to drop this year as noboby in the system particularly shined.

But that's what Chicago does. They blow their wad over the faintest flicker of hope.

General manager Jim Hendry appreciates all Granderson brings to the table, even though he has had trouble hitting left-handers in two of the last three seasons. Perhaps Granderson would benefit from working with new Cubs hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo.

Jaramillo's a guru, you know. He takes good hitters and makes them great.

We'll overlook last year when Rangers' left-handed hitters OPSed .663 off left-handed pitching. In 520 at-bats, Rangers' left-handers were the collective embodiment of David Eckstein in 2009 (okay, that's unfair - Eckstein OPSed .657).

To the larger point - which is exhausting even writing it - hitting coaches cannot take a 29 year-old guy who has had, well, 29 years to learn to hit a lefty curve and suddenly teach an old-ish dog new tricks. He can maybe mitigate catastrophic damage but he can't remake a guy.

(In reference to signing Cuban free agents) The White Sox gave third baseman Dayan Viciedo a $10 million deal last winter that could make it tough for them to spend heavily again.

First, the vitals. Viciedo's salary:

2010: $1.25 million

2011: $1.25 million

2012: $2.5 million

$4 million signing bonus when he signed (could be pro-rated)

Ever buy a car? Of course, you have. Ever buy a car that costs half of your year's salary?

Well, I posit a question to you. After you buy said car, do you consider the purchase as a halving of your salary for that year? No...no, you don't. Because you're not a moron.

You're probably on a 3-5 year payment plan which, HOLY CRAP!, is just like baseball salaries!

Who knew? It's not like the Sox are paying Viciedo $10 million this year. It's spread out.

Also, the White Sox spent in the bottom half of all teams (19th) last year on their first 10 round picks. They're fine.

It's ridiculous for anyone to paint Tim Lincecum as the "sabermetrics candidate" in the NL Cy Young race. He's a great pitcher, as are the Cardinals' Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter. If I had been voting, I would have had it Wainwright, Lincecum and Carpenter.

Who is holy hell painted Lincecum a sabermetrics candidate?

Is this a reference to Greinke? Seriously, I don't get it.

I want someone to argue against Greinke. Go here, see the "traditional" statistics and argue against Greinke.

Can't be done. Sabermetrically, it can't be done times infinity.

Lincecum's award was mentioned in sabermetric circles because, like Greinke's Cy Young, it was marginally astonishing that the Algonquin Round Table known as the BBWAA actually decided to recognize the fact that win totals mean very little.

If it did, Jon Garland would be a perennial candidate for baseball's bestest of the bestest pitcher.

We won't discuss all of Phil's predictions on where free agents will land this off-season except for one.

Guerrero, Nationals: Washington has enough money to bring back the eight-time All-Star to his original franchise, making it more acceptable to trade Adam Dunn for some badly needed pitching.

Right there with Phil-isms like Phil-Math, using words like "poised" or "good fit" and tracking former White Sox prospects that were traded years ago, Phil LOVES players signing with their original franchise (or guys like DeRosa, who played football at Penn, signing with the Phillies...or Harden signing with the Twins because he's Canadian and Justin Morneau's Canadian! - you know, stuff like that).

First, another question. Don't check. How many games do you think Guerrero played in the field last year?

If you said 80, you'd be wrong.

If you said 40, you'd be wrong again.

If you said two...yes...two games, please proceed to the front desk and collect your prize.

Two. He was so bad in right that Scioscia thought BOBBY ABREU was a better option.

Now, the Nationals took some heat for signing Dunn because he's a brutal fielder and what he offers offensively, which is much, is reduced dramatically by his brutal defense. In fact, Dunn just won the Worst UZR Award for 2007-2009 over at Fangraphs. Congratulations, Adam.

So...Phil thinks they should trade Adam Dunn and replace him with a lumbering refrigerator version of Adam Dunn with bad knees and is five years older than Adam Dunn. Oh, and isn't nowhere near the offensive talent of Adam Dunn at 35 years old.

I call that brilliant!

Okay, Vlad didn't touch Dunn's prodigious -108.1 runs against average over a three-year period. He was only -46.3 runs against average from 2006-2008 (not counting two games in 2009).

That's still really bad.

Guerrero is not going to play in the National League. If someone signs him to play the field, that is a team with bad baseball thinking at the helm.

Cripes! The Nationals just made a superlatively great move last year in acquiring Nyjer Morgan, a guy who just might be the best defensive outfielder in baseball. Let's flush half of that away and sign Guerrero to play right.

Phil Watch: Lil Nugget

Today's offering will be like a tweet.

That becomes more relevant now that Phil tweets.

In Phil's mid-week column that follows the GM meetings near O'Hare, he brags a bit about talking to "at least half of MLB's 30 teams" regarding the salary cap. Don't know why he couldn't have just counted up the number in his notes and come up with something exact but he didn't. So...Phil stood in the grand ballroom at some hotel in Schaumburg and did something resembling speed dating, replacing 'salary cap' for 'what do you do?'

Figure in a 40 minute roundtrip on the Kennedy and poof! Two hours worth of work and he has a column.

The finished product is the usual lamentation over the absence of the salary cap. Nothing new. Feels a bit like a journalism class assignment where you have a two-hour gap between classes and decide to do a 'word on the street' reaction piece. Ask only five people, meeting the minimum level of sources for a reaction piece, use all five, come up with some shallow angle and go about your day.

But that's not why we're here.

We're here for Phil-Math.

Baseball, the one uncapped sport, has produced eight different champions over the last decade, with 14 different teams going to a World Series. The NFL has had six champions in this time, with only 10 going to a Super Bowl. The NBA has had five champions, with 11 going to the Finals.

Some parameters - Decade = Ten years. Always has, I believe.

The NFL:

I count seven champions with 14 going the Super Bowl.

Oh, Christo. You're being nit-picky. Phil means the aughts, or nine seasons starting at 2000.

Okay. I count six champions with 13 going to the Super Bowl, "not six champions with only 10..."

Remember that we're comparing it to baseball's "eight different champions with 14 different teams going to the World Series."

Problem = it's with 10 World Series being played in baseball compared to nine Super Bowls being played. Even with Phil getting the math wrong. Wrong. Twice.

So...we have 6-10, which is really 6-13 in nine seasons compared to 8-14 in ten seasons.

Where's this dramatic disparity again?

But hey...he got the NBA math right.

Phil Watch: Mark Teahen's Supposed Wonderfulness

Hello!

It's been awhile. Again.

So...Mark Teahen is now on the South Side, traded for Josh Fields and Chris Getz. Or Chris Getz and Josh Fields. JHC! Does it really matter?

Phil, once the rumors became less-than-unsubstantiated or something, offered a quick national baseball columnist reaction; a reaction that barely involves an assessment of Teahen while offering a drooly coda over Chris Getz along with a weird Paul Konerko prediction.

I can barely type this next sentence because it feels so freakin' trite. If you have taken the time to read all the Mark Teahen articles at the Tribune over the last two days, you know why people don't bother to read the newspaper. Get more lazy and old.

Seriously, is it that difficult to hire a guy that offers something sabermetrically-inclined a couple of times a week? Or even someone who doesn't pepper their articles with 'leadership' and 'passion'-type tropes?

Let's get started.

Mark Teahen might be Kenny Williams' perfect player.

A hair below Major League average? The Sox were 79-83 this year. That's a collective hair-below Major League average. If Kenny Williams values 79-83, then Phil is 100% correct.

He's a good hitter and he can move all over the field, making him a candidate for playing time at third base, second base, first base, left field, right field and DH.

(Glurp) Well...I suppose I should type this stuff just for posterity.

Mark Teahen's UZR/150 at each position:

First base: A grand total of 34 games played = 6.0. Fine.

Second base: The experiment lasted all of three games before Gordon went down = -32.1

Third base: This is where he saw the most ML time = -10.1 (-10.9 last year)

Right field: Second-most time, known for his strong arm and lack of range = -2.0

I don't hate Mark Teahen. In many ways, it's a fine enough swap. Not like the Sox gave up anything.

Something that hasn't been mentioned anywhere, though, about the deal - which is soooo Chicago - is that Teahen's a free agent in 2011 and will only see an arbitration-eligible raise that should max out at $4-5 million. It's one year and he'll probably become a Cub because Hendry also has a hard-on for his MLB averageness.

Even Steve Stone inexplicably sung his praises, saying his line drives will become home runs in U.S. Cellular. To what? From 10 to 15 homers? He also said Teahen is a good defensive player, which he's not by any and all metrics available.

BUT...it's only one year and he's at his prime production year at the age of 28. When it comes to the 'gonna git paid!' world, 2010 is Teahen's watershed moment. Motivation is there. He's playing for the unrestricted free agent paradise.

Like the signing of first baseman-outfielder Mark Kotsay, Teahen's arrival -- not yet official, although widely reported -- would position the White Sox to deal Paul Konerko this winter, assuming Konerko is willing to waive his no-trade rights.

Geesh. Who's picking up the $12 million contract for His Slowness?

Konerko has one year left on his contract and isn't believed to have received overtures about staying past 2010. He could be attractive to teams looking for leadership and run-production, with San Francisco, Arizona, Boston and the Angels among the possibilities. Shedding his $12-million salary would make it easier to pursue a top free agent, such as the long rumored Chone Figgins.

Consistency! I demand it!

Arizona? They're going nowhere. And what happens to Phil's man-crush Brandon Allen?

Cripes. If you kept up on Arizona baseball things, you would know they're trying to shed payroll.

Boston? Fine, whatever. Won't happen, but fine.

San Francisco? I can see it, oddly. This is a mildly solid suggestion. A move to the NL could easily prolong his career and I think he should seriously consider any NL team that wants him.

Angels! WHAT THE MOTHER FUCK!!!!!

Who hit .306/.355/.569 with 34 homers and 108 RsBi for the Angels at first base?

Who? I mean, what does Morales have to do? And he's a better defensive first baseman than Konerko.

What? For DH? They can re-sign Guerrero for $5 million (mark my words) and save $7 million!

Angels are fine, kind sir, in the dumbass Leadership department.

And here we go on the Figgins thing. Figgins is one of the best third basemen in the league. He's. Not. Moving. Off. Third! God!

(BTW, Bernstein said Figgins is getting $15 million per for five years. BAH! No fucking way he touches that!)

No one is saying the White Sox are going to trade Konerko.

Didn't Phil just make that point?

Unless someone pays a premium for him, they shouldn't.

But...but....but....Phil. You just gave reasons.

He and Mark Buehrle are still the cornerstones this team is built upon.

People age in life. Read the inside of the boxtop.

But with Williams' perpetual need to do something, you never know.

He hasn't made more moves than other GMs. Look it up.

Like Clayton Richard, who was sent to San Diego in the Jake Peavy trade, Chris Getz will be missed.

Are we really lamenting the loss of Clayton Richard still? News to me.

He's a good young player who was a pleasure for everyone he encountered around U.S. Cellular Field. The questions with him are his bat and his health.

Chipper attitude wins baseball games in Phil's world. Let's see. Can't stay healthy and can't hit. That's a recipe for awesomeness!

Yes, those are big drawbacks.

Do you feel it? Phil thinks whenever a player leaves town, it's his job to give a glowing parting shot, like it's part of some historical record or something. Let's continue, I guess.

Getz's instincts and speed make him an exciting player, the kind the Sox consistently lacked in the Konerko- Jermaine Dye- Jim Thome era.

Am I wrong? I missed more than a few games this year but did Getz ever create a body of work that jettisoned him into the realm of exciting? He was pretty much just a guy. Perfect Royal in that respect.

But take a good look at his line from the 107 games he played last season: a ,261 batting average, .324 on-base percentage and .408 slugging average.

Yes. Let's take a look. .261 = meh. .324 = bad. .408 = WRONG!!!

Phil, you took Nix's slugging and attributed it to Getz. Getz's slugging was .347 in 2009, which is absolutely horrendous. Getz had an OPS+ of 73. MY. GOD! That's horrible.

Now look at the same numbers for Jayson Nix.

Okay. Nix's OPS = .716. Getz's OPS = .670. Nix plays a superlative second (14.5 UZR/150 in 2009). Getz doesn't (-6.7). Right there. Add it up. Nix was a two win improvement over Getz in just defensive ability.

There. Done.

Nix, not a sure thing himself, put up his numbers in a tougher role –off the bench. He is a more productive hitter than Getz at this point. His fielding skills have been underrated in Chicago.

This is the point where Phil found out that Nix plays good defense. Probably accidentally turned to the Nix page in the Bill James Handbook and was shocked by what he saw. Therefore, Nix is underrated by all of Chicago because Phil didn't previously know it.

And prospect C.J. Retherford, who hit .297 with 10 home runs included in his 60 extra-base hits last year for Double-A Birmingham, is on essentially the same level as Getz and Nix.

Heard good things about Retherford. BUT. He'll need to play in the Major League baseball games before we declare him on par with both Getz and Nix.

Point is, Getz was almost as expendable as Josh Fields, who failed when given his big-league shots.

The Teahen trade, like the Kotsay re-signing, isn't a huge move. But it makes sense.

The question, as always with Williams, is what comes next?

Phil does love the phrase 'it makes sense'. Covers all the bases and leaves him accountable for nothing.