It's encouraging that Phil got himself a subscription to Baseball Prospectus. It's not encouraging that he's chosen to barely use it.
C'mon. Dig in there, Phil. Dig in there.
Let's get started.
While the White Sox grappled with the knowledge that baseball's leading think tank had pegged them to go from first to worst in the American League Central, the chronically underachieving Los Angeles Angels reacted to an ugly projection of their own. According to Baseball Prospectus, they were poised to finish behind Oakland, failing to win the AL West for only the second time in six years.
Okay. Here's the thing. The reason the Angels won 100 games last year was because they played in the crap hole that is the AL West. They went 26-12 against the Rangers and Mariners last year combined, 10-9 against the A's. It's entirely reasonable to think those records will be repeated, leaving them 15 games over .500 again this year against their division.
The Angels also get the pleasure of playing the NL West in interleague play this year. Last year, they went 6-3 against the NL East. Again, entirely reasonable to think they can repeat that against the NL West. That's now 18 games over .500. If the team goes .500 against the rest of the AL - again, entirely reasonable given the weird off-season - they're 90-72.
I don't doubt the minds at BP - baseball minds greater than mine - but I think they undershot the individual expected performances of the Angels this year, especially w/r/t offense. I think they erred on the side of caution given the fact that so many first-year players and young players coming off injuries are expected to play.
Unlike the Sox, the Angels opted to do some last-minute shopping from the bargain bin, and they're going to be glad they did. General manager Tony Reagins didn't say no when Bobby Abreu fell into his lap and quickly made up the Angels' perceived deficit.
Yes. Reagins only made the move once the PECOTA computer projections told him he needed to.
The BP computer adjusted the Angels from 80 to 84 victories, which is enough to make Mike Scioscia's team again a division favorite, if not by as wide a margin as you would think.
The surprise wasn't that the Angels won't win 100 games again. I was that PECOTA had them under .500. So who's 'you', Phil. You? High 80s in wins was probably expected by every reasonable Angels fan with the Rangers and Mariners once again diligently holding themselves to the position of not fielding a competitive team.
The Angels won 100 games last season and have averaged 94 victories over the last five seasons. But they are at least somewhat vulnerable in the mild, mild West after losing Mark Teixeira, Francisco Rodriguez, Jon Garland and Garret Anderson.
Technically, the Angels had a better winning percentage without Teixeira last year (.662 vs. .617).
The team will have a better bullpen without Frankie this year. Book it.
Jon Garland? How will they replace his 4.90 ERA? Or his 5.99 ERA after the break? The horror!
Rivera replaced Anderson before the Abreu signing. $20 bet on who performs better this year. Now, Abreu replaces Anderson. $100,000 bet on who performs better this year.
However, their lineup looks a lot better with the talented Abreu in left field rather than a mix of Terry Evans, Reggie Willits, Juan Rivera and Gary Matthews Jr. It's hard to believe you can get a potential 100 runs-100 RBIs guy for $5 million and incentives, but Abreu simply had slipped between the cracks.
Terry Evans? Listed first? Cripes!
They just signed Rivera to a $13 million deal to play left and DH!
Terry Evans won't even sniff the majors this year on any regular basis. Not a whiff. It's obvious that Phil WENT to Baseball Prospectus. They don't even have Evans getting one at-bat. Terry Evans? It would be like telling a Sox fan that Donny Lucy will see time behind the plate this year and you would say, "Who?" and I would say, "Exactly."
Abreu, who'll turn 35 in March, had a .371 on-base percentage and stole 22 bases to go along with 20 home runs last season. He figures to be on base regularly when Vladimir Guerrero hits, as Scioscia's most likely batting order has Abreu second, Guerrero third and Torii Hunter fourth.
Phil says this because Mike DiGiovanna of the LA Times said it two days ago. At least he kept it in the family.
Now, I know Scioscia has talked about it and it's probably the "plan" entering spring training but it won't be the case by mid-April. Kendrick's a prototypical #2 hitter and will hit there. It's probably motivational crap to get Kendrick to feel a bit marginalized and have him realize that taking a walk and staying healthy is a good thing.
It's Figgins, Kendrick, Abreu, Guerrero, Hunter, Rivera, Napoli, Morales and Aybar. Book it.
"I'll like hitting in front of Vladdy," Abreu said. "My type of game specifically is to be on base and score some runs. I still have my speed."
See. Nothing that says the two-hole specifically. Just 'in front of Vladdy' (God, I hate all the Angels' nicknames. Every one is shortened by half with a 'y' on the end. Thanks, Rex Hudler. Dope.)
The signing of the left-handed-hitting Abreu addressed an imbalance. The Angels hit 11 points higher against left-handers than right-handers last year and were tilting even more in that direction without Anderson and Teixeira.
This one's oddly constructed. Every team in baseball has this type of split for the most part. Anderson is left-handed and typically hit both evenly. Teixeira was an Angel for two freakin' months. There was no dramatic disparity among the LHB v. RH, RHB v. LH, blah, blah, blah.
All hovered in the .260-.270 range. Oh, there is one. The BABIP for LHB v. LH (small size) and LHB in general was above .290 typical, meaning some luck was involved. Therefore, not really relevant.
Just say they needed a middle-of-the-order guy who is left-handed. There. Done. All the other left-handed hitting options before Abreu were switch-hitting slap hitters. See. Easy.
Like Milwaukee's signing of Braden Looper, this was a good move. Those two made a lot more sense than last week's other big free-agent signing — the two-year deal that Adam Dunn took from Washington.
Dunn wanted to play for a contender. The Cubs had been his first choice, but he turned to Houston after the Milton Bradley signing. He would have helped the Astros, but GM Ed Wade couldn't scare up the money to make it happen.
I agree. Houston better be on the verge of bankruptcy because a signing of Dunn and a decent #3 starter would have absolutely put them right in the mix in the Central. For hardly any money, they would have been a contender. It's inexplicable. Wolf and Dunn would have cost the team $15 million this year according to the contracts they signed. Ugh. Just hand the Cubs the division. It's not like the Cardinals are doing anything smart. They signed Kyle freakin' Lohse for four years at $10 million a year!
I wonder if Phil will mention that sort of stupidity regarding Lohse, Phil's pet baby last Spring Training.
One last nugget.
On Milwaukee signing Braden Looper:
Melvin hopes Looper enjoys the home clubhouse at Miller Park more than he did the visiting clubhouse. He has a mark of 0-4 with a 7.01 ERA in 252/3 innings in the retractable-roof stadium.
Where to begin? When Looper pitched in Milwaukee in the past, he faced batters that wore a Brewers uniform unless I'm mistaken and there are secret games being played behind my back.
Now, I guess it's possible that Looper's karma doesn't translate in Wisconsin. Or maybe he doesn't like the restaurant selection in the city or a particular Brewer fan continuously gives him a hard time and it hurts his feelings.
But park stats for pitchers don't translate when he goes to that team because he's not facing players that knocked the shit out of him in the past.
So when Looper takes the mound this year in a Milwaukee uniform, he will never have to face Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Corey Hart and J.J. Hardy.
Why those five guys? Because they've hit a combined .441 off Looper.
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