December 10, 2009

Phil Watch: Second Half Of Double Dose (x 2)


I can't keep up!

Phil has become downright voluminous all of a sudden.

And it's all stream of consciousness in some attempt to capture the landscape of the winter meetings.

Problem is, though, that stream-of-consciousness columns should offer something new. It should, in the end, be greater than the sum of its parts. It's not. So I'm not doing today's offering.

Expect this little nugget:

--Teahen: With Alex Gordon at third base, he was a borderline nontender candidate when the White Sox traded for him last month. His three-year, $14 million contract was a surprise in the chilly financial climate, especially considering he never drove in more than 69 runs in his four full seasons in Kansas City. With widely respected prospect Brent Morel perhaps only a year away from Chicago, Teahen probably will be a first baseman, left fielder or even DH before this deal is up.

I wasn't ga-ga over the Teahen acquisition. Nobody was.

But the contract potentially buys low. With arbitration rules stating that a player can make no less than 80% of his last contract, Teahen would have, IN THE LEAST, in some theoretical world, made $2.86 million this year. He would have, in the real world, made a marginal increase over his $3.575 million salary last year due to the amount of playing time he saw and the fact that he wasn't absolutely brutal. And he most likely would have seen another marginal increase over that next year because Teahen again won't be absolutely brutal.

Just guessing, Teahen without a contract and going year-to-year to arbitration would have garnered a salary of a little over $4 million in 2011 while becoming an unrestricted free agent after that. So...the Sox were, in the least, going to pay Teahen about $8 million anyway. With a bounce-back year more in line with his 2006 and 2007, he could see about $9-9.5 million overall, especially if his power numbers significantly increase because arb judges love that shit. And then he would become a free agent in 2012.

The Sox signed him to a three-year/$14 million contract, averaging $4.67 million a year.

With the Cell's park factor, Teahen should see a moderate tick up in his power numbers and, with some luck and/or big improvement due to the fact that he's right smack in the middle of his prime age years, he has possible upside.

For that possibility, the Sox got three years of Teahen locked in at a fixed, reasonable price while buying out his first free agent year. And maybe more importantly, his contract is absolutely moveable to a contending team at the deadline looking for depth should the Sox need to do that.

This was a good deal for both sides. AND IT WAS A DEAL LESS THAN $15 MILLION!!! FOR THREE YEARS!

HOW THE FUCK IS THIS IRRESPONSIBLE????

RBI's? Really? Lazy, lazy shit.

The Royals offense, every year that Teahen played in Kansas City, was one of the worst offenses in the league. Can't drive in what's not in front of you.

But if we must:

Teahen's overall career line: .269/.331/.419
Teahen's career line with RISP: .285/.366/.440

Mystery player's overall career line: .254/.304/.444
Mystery player's career line with RISP: .278/.337/.455

THAT TOOK ME LESS THAN A MINUTE TO LOOK UP!!!

In 2006, he had a 1.046 OPS with RISP, third-best among third basemen.

In 2007, he had a .964 OPS with RISP, sixth-best among third basemen.

.686 and .628 followed in 2008 and 2009. That's awful.

So...if you believe in things like clutch-hitting and all that crap, the Sox just got a guy who has proven to be a good hitter with RISP in the majors. He's also proven he can suck.

What do these numbers mean to you? .654, .851, .746, .887, .862, .692

Those are Joe Crede's OPS totals with RISP over the last six years and our mystery player.

Oh yeah, and Joe Crede has driven in more than 75 runs exactly once in his eight full-time seasons.

Retort?

Again. Three years. $14 million. Not a bad deal at all.


CUBS FAIL IN EFFORT TO LAND GRANDERSON


INDIANAPOLIS -- Oops, they did it again.

A Britney Spears reference? That's the 45,587th time that's been used in the history of slothful sportswriting.

The Cubs let Curtis Granderson get away, and this time they did it right before our eyes. It didn't seem to bother them too much, and it will not bother their more mathematically inclined fans, but it should.

Phil still hasn't said, in all his blatherings over Granderson, whether Starlin Castro was worth trading. He hasn't said that it should be done. Ever.

And he hasn't addressed how the Cubs were going to match the Tigers' demand for a ML-ready center fielder to replace Granderson now without dealing Castro.

If you can't do that, you shouldn't be writing about it. Worse yet, you shouldn't be getting all uppity about it.

You can scoff if you want. You can point out his troubles against left-handed pitchers. You simply can hide behind the high asking price if it makes you feel better.

Hey, Granderson's worth it in many ways. He was worth $14.3 million, $30.2 million, $17 million and 15.2 million over the last four years in Win Value. He has four years and $36.75 million left on his contract. It's back-loaded, of which the Cubs already have too many, but he'll play over his contract even with moderate regression.

He IS brutal against lefties. And his defense has shown decline the last two years. -9.4 UZR/150 in 2008 and 1.6 in 2009. That's dramatically down from the superlative numbers he put up in '06 and '07.

But he's good. Very good actually, with some concerns.

Granderson isn't Willie Mays, but the reality is he was the most intriguing card on the table for the Cubs this winter -- one of the most intriguing in the last seven years -- and, just like in the 2002 draft, the front office swung and missed.

I love 'intriguing'. You can wiggle out of labeling somebody 'intriguing' if he falls flat on his face pretty easily.

Name a trade, Phil that gets players the quality of Max Scherzer, Austin Jackson and Daniel Schlerth to the Tigers through the Cubs. If you can't, what's to talk about here?

Scherzer is the real deal, not a Randy Wells (average ML pitcher) and Andrew Cashner (hasn't pitched above AA) type.

Austin Jackson is a center fielder that's ready to go, something the Cubs don't have at all and couldn't have went through another team without giving up Castro. Even Castro probably wouldn't have been enough given he hasn't played a full season above A ball yet.

Daniel Schlerth is another real deal the Cubs don't have anything close to. A first-round pick just last year, he saw 39 innings of work in the minors, compiling a 1.13 ERA, giving up 21 hits while striking out 60.

So...here's three guys the Tigers got in return, all major league-ready and the Cubs don't have one guy that's close to any of them.

Castro's 111 at-bats in double A doesn't really equate, does it? And Phil won't say they should trade him!

Barring unforeseen questions about medical reports, the 28-year-old center fielder from the University of Illinois-Chicago and Thornton Fractional South High is going to the Yankees in a three-team trade that also sends Edwin Jackson from the Tigers to the Diamondbacks.

The Yankees didn't need Granderson as badly as the Cubs. They already have Derek Jeter to be their leader and ambassador.

Why in the hell does it matter that the Cubs need him more?

But Brian Cashman nevertheless valued Granderson highly for both his play and his off-the-charts intangibles, so he pulled the trigger on a deal that cost him 22-year-old center-fielder Austin Jackson and pitchers Phil Coke and Ian Kennedy.

Charts are tangible measures of something. Intangibles can't be measured. Just saying.

And unless Phil is ready to say the Yanks aren't re-signing Jeter after next year, this is a non-issue in the world of idiotic 'leadership' discussions.

The Cubs do not appear crushed about losing the chance to land Granderson but had spent almost a month trying to figure out a way to get him.

Would you be more happy if they wept openly?

And with Granderson off the board, they must continue a search for center-field alternatives to overachiever Sam Fuld.

I thought Sam Fuld was the embodiment of the ideal Cub?

This wasn't as bad as passing on Granderson in their disastrous handling of the 2002 draft. Then-scouting director John Stockstill invested $6.94 million in Bobby Brownlie, Luke Hagerty, Chadd Blasko, Matt Clinton, Brian Dopirak and Justin Jones -- all of whom were taken before the Tigers got Granderson with the 80th overall pick.

Ahhh, hindsight. The Cubs took Lavalroe Cash with the 380th pick of the 1999 draft. 22 picks later, the Cardinals took Albert Pujols.

I can play this game all day.

But this might be more painful because Granderson has used four full big-league seasons since to establish himself as one of the brightest voices in the game. He's not a bad player either, with career lines of .272/.344/.484.

Give the Yankees credit for overlooking Granderson's platoon differential (.570 OPS vs. left-handers since 2007, .940 vs. right-handers) and 142 strikeouts a year. He has flaws. But he's a winning player, an all-around player who will become an even more respected face of the game in New York.

Tell me how a Cubs trade for Granderson works? I can play this game all day as well. And have.



...Having seen Granderson in action, there was little doubt that he quickly would have become a clubhouse leader and a huge favorite with Chicago fans. Assuming he could maintain his level of play -- maybe even improve it after collaborating with new hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo -- Granderson could have been Mr. Cub for the next decade.

This is my favorite part for two reasons.

A: Phil has seen Granderson play! He's in an exclusive, secret club!

B: Rudy Jaramillo reference #485 for Phil in the last two months.

Hendry declined to speak publicly about Granderson Tuesday, calling him "somebody else's player." But sources indicated the Cubs had tried unsuccessfully to make this deal happen.

Sources indicate? This is common knowledge! Phil's been talking about the long-term attempts for months and every Chicago outlet and their mother has reported the short-term attempts.

Not exactly inside info.

A Cubs source said Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski was clear from the start that he wanted a majors-ready center fielder and young pitching. The Cubs had young pitchers of interest in Randy Wells and Andrew Cashner -- although Hendry didn't want to move them -- but Fuld wasn't what Dombrowski had in mind as the center fielder.

Third-to-last paragraph before Phil mentions the Tigers' primary demands.

If Fuld WAS what Dombrowski has in mind for center field, Dave wouldn't have a job about three seconds after pulling the trigger on that deal.

Hendry confirmed he tried to work three-team deals to meet the Tigers' center field need. But to get the guys Dombrowski considered to be of Jackson's quality (tops among them the Pirates' Jose Tabata) would have cost the Cubs shortstop prospect Starlin Castro, and Hendry could not make the puzzle pieces fit.

Still hasn't mentioned if he would trade Castro. So Spineless.

Can't even say Castro's worth trading even as any package involving Castro still wouldn't have gotten it done. Just because the Cubs wanted to trade for Granderson doesn't automatically mean the Cubs should have gotten Granderson. Didn't have the goods. That's the column. Not this. Preuse that minor league system and write about that. Crap. I forgot. That takes real journalistic work. So Phil settles for this. Par for the course.

He walked away from a second chance to put Granderson in the city where he could do the most good. It's a chance that won't come around again, at least not until it's too late for Chicagoans to cheer for him in his prime. That's a shame.

Was there this huge groundswell of emotion among Cub fans desiring to root for Granderson because he grew up here that I missed?

I'll just rewrite this column. Granderson is a good center fielder. The Cubs need a center fielder. The Cubs have a bad minor league system with no ML-ready players. Other teams do. The Cubs did not get Granderson because of this.

There. So much shorter and so less painful.

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