When you're picking your kickball team and you get down to the last two people, it usually doesn't take much thought. You just take a guy and get on with starting the game.
What you don't do is treat the decision like it's the Lincoln-Douglas debates.
They're the last two left for a reason.
Let's get started.
Potential difference-makers still on the baseball market
The Angels signed Bobby Abreu, the outfielder the Cubs and so many other teams passed on, one year ago Friday. He proved to be a difference-maker, helping Mike Scioscia’s team to a first-round victory over the Red Sox [team stats] after winning its fifth American League West title in six years.
Wild exception to the rule. Try to name another. And if you say Kyle Lohse, I'm going to crap my pants. My gastrointestinal health is in your hands.
The Angels gave him only a one-year contract worth $5 million.
And then went out and signed the 36 year-old, bad fielding outfielder to another 2 year/$19M deal. Couple that with signing Matsui and the Angels are doing everything they can to harken back to the Gary Gaetti/Von Hayes days. Ain't gonna be a fun year for the Angels and, by extension, the North Side offices of Phil Watch.
There are similar deals to be made in the 2010 market, even as equipment trucks start to head out for camps in Arizona and Florida. The Twins’ fine-tuning has been impressive — the additions of Orlando Hudson and Jim Thome solidified them as the AL Central front-runner
— but here are some more players available who could have even more impact:
Johnny Damon, who last was seen helping the Yankees win the World Series.
Damon fell to the last few guys to be picked for kickball for a lot of reasons.
1. Scott Boras
2. Turned down a 2 yr/$14M deal from the Yankees
3. Didn't respond to a one year/$6M deal from the Yankees
4. He's 36 years old.
5. He plays brutal defense.
6. Fourth-worst outfield arm in the game last year.
7. Can't play center anymore, lowering his value even further if put at a corner relative to the league.
8. If put in the DH slot, he's essentially a replacement-level player relative to the league
9. Bill James net baserunning from 2006-7 = +70. From 2008-09 = +28
10. Hit 24 HRs in a stadium with the highest HR park factor in 2009. Teams after him now were in the bottom half.
11. His Win Value in the last four years: $13M, $13M, $13M and $13M. He was paid $49.6M for $52 M worth of production. At 36, while he's a candidate for sustaining for such just-above-average success, he's also a candidate for seeing a decline.
I like Johnny Damon. He could easily still be a guy who can contribute...something, I guess. But at $8M per, a number that seems like what he's holding out for, I'd probably move on as well, especially since in-house options on every team mentioned in the Damon rumors can put up similar numbers at a fraction of the cost (except maybe the Tigers, a team Phil doesn't mention at all).
Jermaine Dye, whose disappointing second half in 2009 has caused talent evaluators to act as if his rock-solid 2008 totals (.292-34-96) were put up in 1998.
I like Dye as well. But he's also 36, has become a bit lumbering, plays atrocious defense and has a .334 OBP the last three years.
Oh, and those talent evaluators are probably very aware about something else related to the last three years and his atrocious defense.
Dye, from 2007-09, was the third-worst defender in the league when evaluating ALL positions in the game according to UZR. Only Brad Hawpe and Adam Dunn were worse.
Russell Branyan, who should have been more receptive to re-signing with the Mariners, whose general manager, Jack Zduriencik, gave him a chance to increase his at-bats.
Word is that he was very receptive to returning to the Mariners. It was the Mariners that quit talking to him after the Winter Meetings, when they decided to acquire Kotchman instead.
He wants two guaranteed years for the first time in his career. At 34, it's reasonable to want that after hitting 31 homers last year, bad back or not. Seems to be a critical time for Branyan, a guy that has never played on a full-time basis in his career before 2009. He wants a payday while getting enough contract time to prove he can still be relevant. It may be asking for a bit much but I can see the thinking. Won't get it but I can see the thinking.
Damon, seen by MLB executives as a victim of agent Scott Boras’ high demands, is surprised he still doesn’t know where he’s going to camp.
"I’m coming off one of my better years," the 36-year-old left fielder said in a recent radio interview. "I feel wherever I go, I’m going to help the team win more games and (have) a great shot to be in the playoffs and win the whole thing,"
Well, I'm wrong. Damon said he can still play. Line starts behind the Yankees, fellas.
Damon hit .282 with a .365 on-base average for the Yankees and scored 100-plus runs for the 10th time.
Phil needs to tell the world how much Damon'a ability has to do with runs scored instead of his place in the batting order and, most importantly, who was hitting behind him.
Please tell me, cuz I need to know. Jimmy Rollins scored 100 runs last year and he had a .296 OBP.
He clearly had lost a step, however, as his stolen base total dropped from 29 to 12. He looked exposed throughout the playoffs, as if he was going to miss a fly or make a baserunning mistake, but he made all the plays.
Just a thought here. Damon has lost a step. We've established that with his Bill James numbers. But another reason for the low SB total, and I'm just spitballin' here, could be that he played in a lineup that scored a league-leading 915 runs in 2009 and hit ahead of Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez the entire year. Why attempt to steal a base?
The guess here is he can make enough plays to make a difference in 2010. He appears headed to the Tigers, but the White Sox ought to stage an intervention.
What's "a difference?" This is what I hate most about writers like Phil. They throw out vague terms like that. Quantify it.
Imagine Damon in the Sox leadoff spot and Juan Pierre as the No. 2 hitter — or the other way around. Can a rotating DH including Mark Kotsay, Andruw Jones, Omar Vizquel and Jayson Nix outproduce Damon? And what would be the harm in having 23-year-old Jordan Danks spend time with Damon? They seem to be the same kind of player.
Danks throws like a girl as well?
Dye’s continuing unemployment relates to an unflattering statistical analysis of his outfield skills and his reluctance to accept a role as a DH or extra outfielder (the Cubs pursued him before turning to Xavier Nady).
Cripes! You just answered your own White Sox question! If he won't DH or be a fourth outfielder, then who are the Sox going to dump? Quentin, Rios or Pierre?
He’s not even coming up in rumors these days but could help several teams, especially the Reds (their top left field option is left-handed-hitting Chris Dickerson)...
And what's wrong with Chris Dickerson? He was repeatedly named the best athlete in the Reds' organization by Baseball America, walks like crazy (13% walk rate in the minors and majors), plays great defense, swipes bases at an efficient clip and has a little pop. He's nothing special but at $400,000 and Wladimir Balentin backing him up (also at $400,000), the duo could easily outperform Damon at 1/10th of the cost. CHONE has Dickerson at a 2.0 WAR for 2010 (exactly average - and "average" is a more rare thing than perceived) and Balentin at 2.4 WAR. Damon's at 3.2 WAR according to CHONE and is asking for $8M or a multi-year deal.
Fangraphs has one Win worth $3.65M for hitters in 2010. You do the math.
...and Giants (they have Mark DeRosa in left and Nate Schierholtz in right). He could help the Red Sox as a fourth outfielder and insurance policy behind David Ortiz [stats], but it’s not clear how interested GM Theo Epstein is.
So where does DeRosa go? They just signed him!
Branyan, like Damon, could improve the White Sox’s DH spot. He strikes out a ton but delivers long balls — 43 in 563 at-bats the last two seasons — and the Sox haven’t added power after sliding to sixth in the AL in homers. He could fit on almost any team in a bench role but fits best in the AL, where he would be an instant upgrade for the Indians, Athletics and Rangers.
One by one:
Sox - they have 12,000 guys already rotating through the DH slot right now and Ozzie doesn't want a DH-only guy. Konerko's at first. Didn't Phil hear? It's been in the papers. Like, recently.
Indians - Cleveland's rebuilding. Hafner's at DH and LaPorta will play first, a guy that would have been a #1 prospect in most systems (and was in the Brewers' system) if not for Carlos Santana.
Athletics - Barton starts at first with Jake Fox backing him up, both making $400,000 and both can only play first without crapping all over the field. Jack Cust is DHing, a guy who's hit 84 HRs and walking 309 times over the last three seasons. He re-signed for $2.65M.
Rangers - Chris Davis at first, also playing for $400,000. Vlad at DH. Bit more upside with Vlad, don't ya think?
There. See. If Branyan signs with someone, someone else loses at-bats. Who gets jettisoned?
Why would any of these options be a good one for Branyan? No at-bats to be had. And why would any of these teams sign him?
Phil seems to have this idea that Branyan can't field. He can, especially at first. Good enough anyway. How about a NL team? $20 bet he signs with the Marlins.
His .340 OBP over the last three years is serviceable. His .238 average is not given he's struck out at a 32% clip as well over that span. Basically, he's a much like walky Jack Cust with a bad back.
Branyan could be a good buy-low opportunity like last year, just not with ANY of the teams Phil mentioned.
Then there's Whispers - ear to the ground...or Google. Six of one...
It’s amazing the Yankees haven’t gotten more questions about Derek Jeter’s contract, which expires at the end of 2010. New York players and reporters trust general manager Brian Cashman, who has told everyone it will be dealt with after the season, as the Yankees handled the Alex Rodriguez situation two years ago. . . .
Before this, Phil included Jeter's name along with Pujols, Howard, etc. as guys that will be seeing huge extensions soon.
When the Yankees discuss an extension for Jeter after the 2010 season, he will be going into his age 37 year. Um, Jeter will not be getting a "huge extension" at 37. Sorry.
Second baseman Felipe Lopez might be as confused as any free agent. He hit .310 with 38 doubles for the Diamondbacks and Brewers last season and has gotten the cold shoulder. Are the Cubs better off with Jeff Baker, Mike Fontenot and Andres Blanco?
Lopez hasn't signed because, for the most part, GMs aren't stupid. Lopez was atrocious at the plate and in the field in the three years previous to 2009. It's called at contract year.
Another guy hit .317 in a 2008 contract year. His name was Aaron Miles.
. . . Diamondbacks third baseman Mark Reynolds is discussing a lucrative, long-term contract after shattering the single-season record with 223 strikeouts last season. Joe DiMaggio had 369 strikeouts in 13 seasons. .. . .
First, both sides are looking at only a two or three-year deal. Nothing huge.
Strikeouts are bad, according to Phil. Reynolds strikes out a lot.
Reynolds has struck out at a 37% clip over the last three years. But Russell Branyan is a desirable chip for oodles of teams according to Phil even though he strikes out at a 32% clip. In fact, Branyan struck out 149 times and didn't play after August 28.
3.9 WAR for Reynolds last year at age 27 with the deal being talked about to cover the rest of his arbitration years. No dollar numbers have been publicly bandied about but two and $16-18M or three and $22M would be a bad thing for that production?
Because he strikes out a lot?
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