I hate the feeling that I've told a story to someone before. I especially hate it when I realize it as soon as I start the story but I'm not 100% sure if I have, so I plow ahead just in case I'm wrong and then, right towards the end, I realize that, yes, I have.
It's an icky feeling when you have just repeated yourself and it's worse when the person hearing the story gives body clues early on that they've indeed heard it.. Nobody likes to be redundant.
Phil, apparently, doesn't mind such things.
I had a boss like this once. He also felt that if he said the same blather over and over again, it would someday come true and didn't care if anybody has heard it before.
Let's get started.
It's hard to find a silver lining in the cloud hovering over the White Sox.
Agreed. This is bad. It was a collection of guys put together that have had nice enough careers at fairly young ages that nonetheless collectively fell off the cliff.
Best-case scenario: You really have to use your imagination to get this Sox team to .500 given the way talent has drained away from the big-league club since 2008.
Um...okay. Just for the record, let's see who was on the 2008 team that could have helped this team, guys that are currently producing in 2010 that you could put on this roster over someone already there:
Orlando Cabrera: .265/.293/.364 for the Reds. Even the Twins found him annoying.
Joe Crede: Out of baseball
Nick Swisher: OPSing .915 for the Yankees. Bad return but Phil hated the original deal.
Jermaine Dye: No team in the majors thought he was an upgrade. Unsigned.
Jim Thome: Only DHing against righties on a good team.
Juan Uribe: Having himself a nice rejuvenation in San Francisco in a weaker league
Brian Anderson: Gave up hitting to become a pitcher
Ken Griffey: Ask Seattle fans about his current value
Javier Vazquez: Ask Yankee fans about his current value
Clayton Richard: Swapped for Peavy. Peavy wins.
Nick Masset: Brutal for the Reds in middle relief.
Jose Contreras: C'mon. I don't care if he's "closing" for the Phils.
So...I see Swisher and Uribe with a dash of Thome as possible contributors to this team. Swisher was an annoying clubhouse presence that needed to be shipped. He was a petulant child towards the end of '08 (terrible return, though). Uribe, after contributing for three seasons, fell off the cliff in 2007 and 2008 in terms of WAR. $2.3M total value in those years. Good for him. He found a home. The smart money said that wasn't going to happen. Thome? we've been over this.
The problem with this team, and it speaks to the larger point, was that Kenny finally gave Ozzie a National League-style team that Ozzie's been bitching about for years. Except that he didn't. Sure, they lead the league in stolen bases but there's a lot more to playing NL ball than stolen bases. There's hitting behind the runner. There's a crapload of hit-and-runs. There's putting stress on the defense by trying to take that extra base a lot. There's always trying to make things happen.
But even that's a myth now. Most good NL teams just bash their way to wins like their AL counterparts. The best teams doing it today are a few AL teams. The real question is why Kenny would concede to Ozzie and try to build such a team with The Cell being the definition of a bashing ballpark. It's a park that begs to build a team around homers. But yes, let's play small ball in a park where you play 81 games a year and gives you more homers than most any other place you play.
This season falls on Ozzie. If he's going to give "small ball" lip service, I'd like to at least see him fail trying. I'm not even seeing such stuff outside of stolen bases. When is the last time you saw Pierre swipe second and Pierzynski or Beckham try to hit it to the vacated second base spot? I don't recall it once. Heck, it seems that's stuff that can even help a guy get out of a slump. They certainly have shown an aptitude to ground out. Let's see if those potential ground outs can be productive.
The Sox have 27 games left against the Twins and Tigers, which isn't going to help. Those two American League Central opponents were playing .590 baseball through Tuesday, and it wasn't a fluke.
Um...we're going to see on that. The Twins have played the fourth-easiest schedule in baseball so far. The Tigers are in the lower half. The Twins are good. But it's Jon Rauch and Liriano is returning to Earth. He had a great three-start stint in April but has a 5.21 ERA in May and opponent are hitting .338 off him in that span. He's someone to watch (and hasn't given up a homer - change be a comin'). Justin Morneau is a career .280 hitter currently hitting .365. The Twins are a better team than the Sox. No doubt. I don't think they will catch the Twins. But top-to-bottom and given the players on each roster and their career arcs, I don't think they're 18 wins better like the early season projects out.
Worst-case scenario: The Sox were winning at a .421 pace through Tuesday. They shouldn't play worse but could continue at that pace, losing more than 90 games for the first time since 1989.
Agreed. That easily could happen. Watching this team is brutal. It's frustrating baseball. Everyone decided to be bad at once.
Gut read: Pitching wins championships but it doesn't carry a weak team. The White Sox are on pace to score 674 runs, 50 fewer than a year ago when it could point to Carlos Quentin's injury.
Agreed.
That team had Jermaine Dye and Jim Thome. The Sox replaced them with Alex Rios and Mark Kotsay, and swapped Scott Podsednik for Juan Pierre (the last guy most GMs would see as a winning player in the AL).
Rios is better than Dye in every facet right now. Thome hit .213 against lefties from 2007-2009. What do you do with that when he can't play the field? Scott Podsednik and Juan Pierre are the same player. Check the numbers.
Difference-makers: Quentin and Gordon Beckham. Quentin was locked in and killing the ball when the White Sox won in 2008. He has been anything but the last two seasons, battling plantar fasciitis and hitting a combined .227.
He's been awful. Agreed.
Beckham arrived with swagger last June, making a run at Rookie of the Year while learning to play third base. He should be more comfortable at second but is hitting .188.
He's also been awful. Agreed.
Blame game loser: General manager Ken Williams.
Um...what GM would have dumped those two? Seems at least partial blame rests on the two guys Phil just mentioned. They've been awful and that has led to less runs, also just mentioned. Throw in Pierzynski and Ramirez, a guy who hasn't seen a pitch he won't swing at and try to pull and poof! You have a team that can't score runs. That's where the blame lies, on guys that any GM would have put on the roster to play everyday that haven't produced.
Manager Ozzie Guillen, his coaches and players have been under almost daily review since the 4-9 start but those critiques ignore how the GM invested six pitchers, a promising infielder and a payroll commitment of $138 million over 15 player seasons to add Jake Peavy, Mark Teahen, Rios and Pierre since last July 31.
(Sigh) Certainly sounds like a big number. Decent amount of flexibility here. Check it out.
Just under $67 million committed for next year before arb raises. Only Danks should see a significant jump. Jenks will not be on this roster next year, Pierre might be swapped to someone looking for that last piece of the puzzle and, I hate to say it, but this might be the year that Buehrle goes to the Cardinals. They're looking beatable right now and one more pitcher might do it. If the Cardinals will take the salary (or at least a good chunk), Kenny might pull the trigger.
Williams, impatient with young talent and overly interested in putting a personal stamp on his team, sold Chairman Jerry Reinsdorf a 2010 team that came with a $106 million payroll, seventh in the majors.
This is Ozzie's team by every measure, Phil. Read your own paper.
The Sox have been below. 500 (256-269) since the start of '07. Williams has allowed a string of productive players to leave (bring back Juan Uribe!) and traded away inexpensive options from the farm system in Chris Young, Ryan Sweeney, Clayton Richard, Gio Gonzalez, John Ely, Chris Getz, Fautino de los Santos, Brandon Allen and Aaron Cunningham.
Here we go!
Chris Young: Phil feels like he can mention him again because he's off to a better start. Never mind that he put up a slash line of .235/.307/.438 in 1900 plate appearances before this in the majors. Oh, and struck out at a 26% clip...and had a TOTAL COMBINED WAR of 3.8 in four seasons before this year. Alex Rios put up a 4.7 in 2007 and a 5.4 in 2008 alone.
Ryan Sweeney: Light-hitting RF that fields well. Very well, actually. Who does he play in front of, Phil? Quentin? Rios? Maybe Pierre. I'll give Phil Pierre to an extent.
Clayton Richard: Good so far. He's pitching well in a monstrous ballpark in a weaker league and a weak-hitting division. Ahead of who on the White Sox? Garcia? Very big maybe and a "probably not". Richard has an entirely unsustainable HR/FB rate of 2.2% right now. That will change.
Gio Gonzalez: He's proven to be a fourth or fifth starter, Phil. We have a track record in the majors now. 5.22 BB/9 in 32 starts. He's just not that great. Cheap, sure. But the White Sox have some dough and he isn't better than anyone in the starting rotation. And if he was pitching for the Sox, the frustration meter would be through the roof.
I'm skipping Jon Ely. Four starts in the majors means anything and he would have no place in the rotation right now.
Getz? Really?
Ding! Ding! Ding! We have our first Fautino mention in a long time! Already had TJS. Started seven games in rookie ball last year and is now pitching out of the pen in A ball this year to the tune of three games and a 7.36 ERA. Hell yeah! He's an option for this year or anytime in the near future!
Brandon Allen: .216 at Triple A right now. Came up late last year and struck out 40 in 104 at-bats.
Aaron Cunningham: So good he can't crack the A's lineup. OPSing .645 in Triple-A right now.
I chastise Phil for repeating himself. Yet I'm doing the same thing. The difference might be, though, that I'm giving you actual numbers instead of saying the Chris freakin' Getz could help this team.
The Sox won in '05 because Williams struck gold with Jose Contreras, A.J. Pierzynski, Uribe, Bobby Jenks and Dye but lightning isn't striking the same place twice. The team's two cornerstone players, Paul Konerko and Mark Buehrle, were in place when Williams took over for Ron Schueler. Just how much loyalty does a World Series ring buy?
Ozzie goes before Kenny goes. I bet $500.
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