April 26, 2009

PRFM: (sigh) Just. Check. The. Stats!


Last week's Power Rankings For Morons (it's now been patented, hence the italics) was an entirely inoffensive affair.  I can even say it was a nice little read.  

Two in a row?  Nah.

You might remember last year that Phil's PRFM occasionally did a funny thing.  He would pick one strange stat and use it as an indicator and justification for ranking a team in a certain slot.  

My favorite (and there were many) was probably a catcher's caught stealing percentage.

Today is "double-digit runs."  

Let's get started.

3. Blue Jays (3): Cito Gaston has done a good job getting results from a bullpen that no longer knows if it will be able to count on B.J. Ryan, whose velocity was way down before he went on the disabled list. The lineup hasn't gone more than seven games in a row without a double-digit day.

See.  I ain't no liar.  The Blue Jays have plated more than nine runs in a game four times.

For context, last year, the Rangers scored 10 runs or more 24 times, an average of one game a week and lining up with Phil's benchmark of "hasn't gone more than seven games in a row...."

Texas was not a good baseball club last year.

Yes.  The Blue Jays are scoring runs, mainly because Aaron Hill, Adam Lind and Travis Snider offer Jays' fans hope for the future instead of being relegated to rooting for a softball team.

But it's the completely revamped rotation that has been the surprise.  Starters two-through-five behind Halladay had a combined 23 major league starts coming into the '09 season.  They have a combined 3.55 ERA this year.  Take Purcey out of the equation and it's a 2.60 ERA.

As Texas repeatedly shows every year, you have to prevent runs along with scoring runs and the Blue Jays are currently doing that. 

But 10-run games are pretty.  

7. Mariners (8): A lot of executives must be kicking themselves for not listening harder when Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik called offering Jarrod Washburn. It's only three starts, but a 17-4 strikeout-walk ratio suggests he's poised for a good season.

Yes.  Jarrod Washburn is now a good pitcher because of three starts against a below average Minnesota team, a struggling Rays team and a horrid Angels team.  Two of three at home.

And yes, a 34 year-old pitcher who in 534 innings over the last three years has a 4.55 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP and a combined 23-43 record is now poised to be a good pitcher.

Wait!!  He's left-handed!!  The Cubs should get him.  They value left-handed guys above...well...every bit of evidence staring right in their face.

9. Complete games (NR): April isn't the month for them but there have been 10 already, including two apiece from Tim Wakefield and Zack Greinke. Wakefield, who got the benefit of a seven-inning complete game on Monday, became the oldest pitcher (42) to throw consecutive complete games since Charlie Hough did it for the White Sox in 1992.

If you didn't look it up, you'd think this was impressive/worrisome, right?

You'd think managers outside of the Dusty Baker wouldn't try to tax their arms so early in the season, right?

No.

Complete games thrown in April by year:

2008:  20
2007:  13
2006:  10
2005:  28
2004:  15
2003:  20
2002:  32
2001:  27
2000:  27

That took me about six minutes.  Just look it up.

Just looking at 2008, there is no correlation between how early it is in the season and the amount of complete games thrown.  

April:  20
May:  27
June:  16
July:  26
August:  25
September:  23

Factoring in that teams play on average three less games in April compared to the other months and there is absolutely, bar none, without a question, inarguably no correlation.   

14. White Sox (10): Jose Contreras and Bartolo Colon are 1-4 with a 7.12 ERA between them. Jeff Marquez, the top option in the minors, is 0-3 with a 13.06 ERA in Triple-A. Where have you gone, Javy Vazquez?

Javy Vazquez will be this year's Jon Garland in Phil's world.  Expect repeated potshots at Kenny for trading Vazquez anytime Contreras or Colon puke all over the mound.

15. Twins (15): Joe Mauer is close to returning in early May, if not sooner.

Dear diary, why won't Dreamy Joe love me?  

18. Tigers (17): Hit for double-digit run totals in back-to-back starts by Justin Verlander and Edwin Jackson. Allowed opponents to hit double digits in four of the first 15 games, an alarming trend.

More "double-digit runs" gallimaufry.  And isn't this exactly what the Tigers have done over the last two years?  "Alarming trend?"  

More like "dominant personality trait" to me.

24. Giants (30): Pablo Escobar is showing signs of getting turned around. But not first baseman Travis Ishikawa.

It's Pablo Sandoval, Phil.  Not Pablo Escobar. 

Unless the corpse of Columbian drug lord Pablo Escobar is now playing third base and occasionally catching for the Giants.

But Sandoval was sure hitting like a corpse to start the season.  Ba-Zing!!!

(Book Corner:  Read Killing Pablo by Mark Bowden.  Good book.) 

28. Athletics (23): Scoring runs is a bigger issue than the performance of a young pitching staff, which hasn't allowed an opponent to score in double digits.

Hey, Phil made a funny.

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