Phil Watch: Technical Wrongs

Gots me sum catchin' up ta do.

So, for this round of Phil Watch, we'll examine the past week's offerings that get to the crux of what Phil Watch is all about.

Sure, Phil typically works off weird premises and draw weirdly stupid conclusions, but, like life, it's the small things that make the man.

Let's get started.

The first one comes from Phil's "Crystal Ball" predictions. We'll crop out the superfluous stuff.

1. The White Sox will seize control of the AL Central in the next three weeks.

Then they will fight like crazy to hold off the Twins and a fading Tigers club...

The Tigers are fading and the Twins are the team the Sox must fight off?

Two notes on Phil context. First, a mere three days later, he ranked the Tigers #8 and the Twins #16 in his Power Rankings For Morons. Second, on the same day, in Phil's Whispers (ear to the ground...) he whispers about the badness on display in Minnesota's rotation. Mostly, I think someone just told Phil that Kevin Slowey is out for the year and hasn't pitched since July 3.

Tony Pena was a bigger addition than most people know...

Now, the Tony Pena for Brandon Allen trade is a good one.

This is Phil ten days ago:

White Sox GM Ken Williams says people still don't understand the significance of the team's pickup of Tony Pena, and he's right. Given how they're using him mostly in non-stress situations, it's hard to see why they gave up first base prospect Brandon Allen to get him. Allen looks like a regular of the near future for the Diamondbacks, hitting .379 with eight homers in his first 18 games at Triple-A Reno after the deal. ...

In August, Brandon Allen is hitting .219. What changed in ten days? I welcome Phil adjusting his opinion as things change but I need a reason. It's only polite.

I picked the White Sox to win the Central at the start of the season -- the Twins would have been a slight favorite if Joe Mauer had not ended the spring out for an undetermined length of time -- so I will stick with them.

The Twins were 11-11 w/o Mauer. The Twins are 43-45 with Mauer.

The 5-2 run on this homestand against the Yankees and Angels shows they can compete against top teams.

Aaaaarrrrghhhh!!!!! It "shows" nothing. The Nationals just swept the Marlins. Oakland just took three of four from the Rangers. It's good that the Sox won games and kept pace. That's all.

2 The Cubs are going to pull away slowly from the Cardinals to win a third straight NL Central title.

The Cardinals have improved with the additions of Matt Holliday, Julio Lugo and Mark DeRosa, but the Cubs are outscoring them. The Cubs are averaging 5.7 runs since the All-Star break; since trading for Holliday, the Cardinals are averaging 4.8 runs.

Oh, boy. The Cubs, to attain such lofty heights, did so playing four against the Nationals, six against the Reds and four against the Astros. That's 14 of the 20 games.

By contrast, since the Holliday trade, the Cardinals have played 12 games (in the context of when Phil wrote this column), seven were against the Phillies and Dodgers.

Cripes! That means nothing? Not all teams are created equal, Phil.

That's a measure of the relative depth of the two lineups -- the Cubs simply have more ways to win games. Consider the second-half OPS of these five Cubs: Aramis Ramirez, 1.087; Derrek Lee, 1.027; Kosuke Fukudome, 1.001; Alfonso Soriano, .993, and Jake Fox, .983.

If Phil can take 20 games and project, I shall take August games and project:

OPS in August:

Aramis Ramirez - .448

Alfonso Soriano - .572

Jake Fox - .594

Given those numbers, the Cubs will lose their next 25 games and finish 4th in the NL Central.

The Cubs are on pace to win 87 games, but a 14-6 run since the All-Star break suggests they're capable of going 33-23 to reach 90 -- or more.

OMG! It's still going! Nice logic!

Personally, I like "or more" the best. The Cubs have played .537 baseball up to this point. Let's add five games to adjust for the "or more." That's 38-18, or a 162-game pace of 110 wins for an entire season.

Phil's such a meatball.

3 The White Sox are going to bring back Jermaine Dye and Jim Thome for next season.

Given their ages (Dye, 36; Thome, 38) the Sox could keep it simple, exercising Dye's $12 million option and signing Thome for one year, at a DH-only, late-career discount. But with the two sluggers on pace to drive in a combined 200 runs this season, it wouldn't hurt to try to sign them to two-year deals at good prices ( Paul Konerko will be eligible for free agency after 2010).

Using the ESPN projection system (which assumes each player will play every game from this point out - hmm...), Thome drives in 108 and Dye drives in 101. Good numbers, but any team contending for the playoffs better damn well have their #3 and #4 hitters (or #5, depending on the lineup) drive in 200 runs combined. That's how you become a playoff contender.

So...it sounds impressive.

But consider the three worst offenses in baseball: Padres, Reds and Mariners and projecting their #3 and #4 hitters:

Padres: Gonzalez and Kouzmanoff - 181

Reds: Votto and Phillips - 195 (Votto missed 30 games this year and Bruce is out for the year)

Mariners: Branyan and Lopez - 193

Sox: Dye and Thome - 209

Now...there are issues with this comparison, sure. But each team represents their two biggest RBI contributors. The difference between the Sox's #3 and #4 hitters and the ones on the worst offense in baseball - the Padres - is exactly one RBI a week. And that's not even getting into actual RBI opportunities, BAw/RISP, etc.

That's not saying Dye and Thome haven't been good/serviceable/nice to have nor is it saying they shouldn't re-sign both (that's an entirely different ball of wax), but "200 combined RBIs" means so very little in the grand scheme of things. And is dumb.

4 Aaron Poreda will not make the White Sox regret trading him...

...They will miss Richard, a winner with the ability to pitch bigger than his stuff, especially in big spots. But Peavy for Richard, Poreda, Carter and Adam Russell was a no-brainer as far as talent.

Again. I ask. What's the difference between now and ten days ago?

Ten days ago, Phil essentially questioned Kenny's sanity.

Also, there's this from last week's PRFM:

15. Twins (17): Adding Orlando Cabrera was a move with history on its side; four of his last five teams have gone to the playoffs, including the Red Sox, Angels and White Sox.

Huh? In that case, the Rockies will win the World Series this year. Don't believe me?

In every year of Marquis' career coming into this year, his teams have made the post-season.

32. Pirates (29): Call the smartest baseball fan you know and ask which player led the major leagues in home runs in July. They won't know. The answer is Pittsburgh's Garrett Jones, a Tinley Park product, who is the first Pirate to lead the majors for a month since Willie Stargell hit 11 in April, 1971. The most amazing thing is Jones didn't get traded.

Okay. I play WAY TOO MUCH fantasy baseball. I get that. But I got into a waiver-claim war with two of the stupidest players in a couple of my fantasy leagues over Garrett Jones. One of them gave me Chipper Jones, Nelson Cruz and Brian Fuentes for Carlos Delgado at the beginning of the season.

That guy knew Garrett Jones was leading the league in homers in July.