November 29, 2009

Phil Watch: Bring Back Ortman!

I went old school on the Phil pic today.

Feeling nostalgic.

Today, Phil channels his inner Score caller.

"I think the Sox should trade some prospects for Pujols!"

To preface today's Whispers, remember that Phil told Hendry three weeks ago that he "must pursue Ganderson." And in that piece, he said:
"If Dombrowski wants to talk about Carlos Marmol, potentially a closer for the next two or three years, and Starlin Castro, who could have a Shawon Dunston impact and tenure at shortstop, Hendry should be willing. Granderson -- at this point in his career -- is worth paying a huge price to get."
Let's get started.

The Tigers continue to have trade talks involving Edwin Jackson and Granderson, with both situations likely to come to a conclusion at the winter meetings in Indianapolis. The Cubs are serious about Granderson but have made it known they won't give up Carlos Marmol or Starlin Castro. The Tigers instead could ask for right-hander Andrew Cashner and third baseman Josh Vitters. ...

The Tigers could also ask for a Cuisinart rotisserie cooker, a Kindle and a tiger-striped Snuggie as well, all hot holiday presents this year.

First, the Yankees and Angels are in on Granderson as well, two teams with a million more trading chips than the Cubs.

Second, it would have to be SO MUCH more than Cashner and Vitters, the latter proving this year that he's a rather ordinary prospect that doesn't add much to a trade involving a player of Granderson's ability, payroll commitment and age.

Phil will not question Hendry. Never has.

Callis over at Baseball America couldn't have foreseen the stupidity that would ensue in this town when he ranked Castro #1 on this year's top 10 organizational list. Well, he probably did. He's writing from Chicago.

But until Castro shows he can be something other than a bit of a slap-hitting shortstop with a potentially good glove and a terrible walk rate, he shouldn't be untouchable. Not if you can get a guy like Granderson, proven to be one of the best center fielders in the game rather than keeping a possibly decent little shortstop in three years.

Granderson, 28, is owed $5.5 million next year ($8.25M in 2011 and $10M in 2012 with a 2013 club option). In the last four years, he's averaged $19.4M in win value and a 4.9 UZR/150.

I have no idea why the Tigers let Ordoñez's $18M option vest and then turn around and shop Granderson and his $5.5M for next year. But this is a team that has $47.5M committed to Nate Robertson, Jeremy Bonderman, Dontrelle Willis and Carlos Guillen in 2010. They will win no awards for Most Responsible Spending. True. By benching Ordoñez sufficiently enough in 2009, they did avoid the 270-start, two-year trigger (he started 102 games) for the 2011 option of $15 million to be guaranteed, so good for them.

But it's still inexplicable to me why dumping $5.5M Granderson is some sort of priority. Given that, if they deal him, they won't be taking a package with the likes of Cashner and Vitters included. Dombrowski was probably seeing if anyone would blow him away with a ridiculous package. Phil's Cubs package is not one of those.

Scouts from the Tigers and other AL teams are looking at Jake Fox in the Dominican Republic. He hit a combined .326-28-97 between Triple A and the Cubs last season but has nowhere to play. ...

Oh, but hell! If you throw in a 27 year-old guy who can't play the field and had basically one good year, DEAL DONE!

It's absolutely imperative, if you're going to be a national baseball writer, to offer up something that seems plausible, not just possible. If you give simply possibilities, then you're a reporter. And not a good one.

If you think Cashner, Vitters and Fox get you Granderson, you would be mistaken. Dombrowski is still getting killed for the Jair Jurrjens and Gorkys Hernandez for Edgar Renteria trade.

This is not analysis. This is wishful thinking. It's Score caller thinking.

According to figures published by Baseball America, the two best fastballs in the Arizona Fall League belong to Nationals No. 1 pick Stephen Strasburg and White Sox reliever Sergio Santos, the latter a former first-round pick of the Diamondbacks who played infield until 2009.

Sigh. It's not the best fastballs. It's fastballs with maximum velocity. HUGE difference.

Best fastballs would be something combining velocity with effectiveness. This is not that.

Why did the Astros give Carlos Lee a no-trade clause in his deal two years ago? Without it, he could be shopped to the Red Sox, among others. ...

Because they probably had to, kind sir. Lee wouldn't have signed it.

Question why a team would give Lee six years and $100 million. That's legit. He plays bad defense in left, doesn't walk and generally has a crappy attitude about everything. Lee gets his numbers and seems to be fine with that, kind of like a poor man's Albert Belle.

But if anybody is paying a player $100 million, in what world would that player not also demand a no-trade clause? In a weird way, the Astros should be commended for backloading the contract and getting the no-trade clause to expire in 2010. They're not going to be locked into the last two years of Carlos Lee at $18.5 million per year if they don't want to.

So, signing Lee was the original sin. He's been paid $41.5 million by the Astros in the last three years and has played to a $39.6 million value. Pretty much a push in pure dollars. You want more out of Lee, sure. His last three years are at $18.5 million per year so the Astros gave the last three years to Lee at a value he's never reached in Win Values. That's pretty stupid given those last three years are for Lee's 34-36 age years. But again, they're only really exposed to one real bad year and that's next year. 2011 and 2012 are entirely open to the "Trade Lee's Ass" banner at Minute Maid because they can.

See...opinion. That's surprisingly easy. Give it a go sometime.

Brent Morel has shot past Dayan Viciedo as the White Sox's third baseman of the future. He's a natural hitter, which he showed when he joined the Arizona Fall League at midseason and hit .372 in his first 12 games, including an 8-for-11 showing in three games last week. ...

Morel led the AFL with a .435 average in 62 ABs (half-season). That's good.

But is this what we're doing now? We're taking the already stupid projection of a prospect after an AFL performance done in an already short fall season comprised of typically 120 ABs and we're now projecting a prospect who played in half of an already short fall season?

Morel seems like someone to keep an eye on but let's see how he does above class A ball before crowning him the Third Baseman Of The Future. How 'about it? Sound good? Viciedo doesn't look like anything special but at least his numbers were compiled in Double A and it was in his first season in American ball. I think the jury might still be out on any usurping.

I'm sure Phil saw Morel's 25 stolen bases and wet himself but consider this. Adam Dunn stole 24 bases in class A ball in 2000. Let's see how Morel does when he's not facing a 55th round draft pick from Assfuck, Iowa before lavishing praise upon him.

Just some measured praise. Just some.

A's GM Billy Beane is encouraged by pitcher Fautino de los Santos' recovery from Tommy John surgery. De los Santos, a headliner in the deal that sent Nick Swisher to the White Sox, was throwing 95 mph in the Instructional League, according to Beane.

Phil is going to be right about Fautino if it kills him.

Remember. When Phil had an accident in his pants for the hard-throwing righty, he was just a pup who hadn't pitched above A ball.

He's now 24, coming off TJS and has thrown 33 innings in the last two years, none above A ball and 2009's 11 innings were in rookie ball.

And let's look at that "headliner" claim.

Four players were involved: Swisher, Gio Gonzalez, Ryan Sweeney and De Los Santos.

Swisher was THE headliner because he was, you know, a major league player with a track record.

Gonzalez was the original Phil lament and we were offered copious amounts of updates on Gio's progress by Phil. And then it stopped...because Gio was bad. 6.24 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP since arriving in Oakland. He strikes out a lot of guys only when he finds the strike zone. His 5.1 walks/9 would have been the worst in baseball among players with 90 innings or more pitched if Ian Snell wasn't just a tick (.04) worse. His WHIP was the 7th most. With Peavy, Buehrle, Danks, Floyd and Hudson, Gio is no longer part of the discussion in any way, shape or form.

We were told as well by Phil in June, 2008 that if Ryan Sweeney would have been on the White Sox, he would have made the White Sox a better team by helping supplement an aging core. You know, the team that won the division.

Now Fautino is 'a headliner' in Phil's strange recollection. Is everyone a headliner? Seems like a player can't really be a headliner if everyone's a headliner. It's like the Monday Night Football crew calling everyone "Great!" If everyone's great, then the definition of 'great' is no longer valid.

Nice job, Phil. Channel your inner Larry King.

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