January 27, 2008

Phil Watch: He Hates It When Statistics Get In The Way

In an otherwise pedestrian offering from Phil today, a few gems are to be had.
Why he spends the first half of the article analyzing the Reds' acquisition of Jeremy Affeldt is beyond me, especially with SoxFest this weekend and the fact he wrote Baseball America's top 10 prospects list just two weeks ago.

Well, Dusty Baker used to be the Cubs' manager. That's a link.

But let's see what he has to offer.

Ten years after his pro career began, Jeremy Affeldt finally had a breakout season in 2007. He made 75 appearances out of the bullpen for the Colorado Rockies and then pitched in seven of 11 postseason games for the National League champs.

Breakout season? Affeldt's ERA last year was 79th among MLB relievers with 40 or more innings pitched. His WHIP was 99th.

Yes, he made 75 appearances last year...for a total of 59 innings. Do you know what that means?

Pretty much a lefty specialist. Not quite a LOOGY (lefty, one-out guy) but certainly a guy brought in when a couple of lefty hitters are due up and is on a relatively short leash (or a GBIWACOLHADUAIOARSL).

For evidence of such things, look to Affeldt's aforementioned appearances in 7 of 11 postseason games. A grand total of 5.1 innings.

Just some things to mention next time Affeldt warrants an article.

On the whole, it has been a solid winter for Reds general manager Wayne Krivsky. He lured Baker out of the ESPN booth, then scored a major coup by signing free-agent closer Francisco Cordero, who was second in the NL with 44 saves for Milwaukee a year ago. But he also needed to add at least two proven arms behind his 1-2 combination of Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo.

Phil continues to want to have Dusty's children.

And the Reds gave Cordero the largest contract ever given to a closer. To him. With these numbers. And a career .309 BABIP, good for 143rd last year as an imperfect comparison.

Solid winter? How would it be solid if they didn't find starting pitching depth.

The only thing Krivsky accomplished this winter is something he didn't do, like giving away the farm - particularly Votto and Bailey - for Erik Bedard.

Affeldt, 28, was more or less guaranteed a spot after agreeing to a one-year, $3 million contract. The Reds' top scouts believe he has the stuff to succeed as a starter, remembering how he filled that role with some promise for Kansas City in 2003.

Again, a few clicks away on these internets debunks these sorts of 'promising' tags. In 2003, Affeldt started 18 times, going 6-5 with a 4.39 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP and a .320 BABIP.

For a frame of reference, Odalis Perez had a .320 BABIP last year, good for 163rd. By the end of July in 2003, Affeldt was moved to the bullpen.

I guess he did say 'some' promise. His arms didn't fall off. And he's not exactly praising the move. Or is he? Is he? I'm still a bit confused.


Phil then moves on to 'unfilled needs' around the league:

•Power hitter, Dodgers—Juan Pierre figures to be even less productive in left field than he was in center, but the four years left on his contract precluded GM Ned Colletti from adding some needed pop. Andruw Jones gives the lineup one hitter who had more than 20 home runs a year ago, but he had only 26 and is moving to a tougher park. Rookie third baseman Andy LaRoche gets a chance to make Nomar Garciaparra a utility player.

This is just lazy. Really. Just look it up. It's further evidence that Phil's reference books at his desk were last updated in 2001.


In 2007, Dodger Stadium was the 13th most homer-friendly park in the majors. Turner Field was 19th.

2006, Dodger Stadium - 7th; Turner Field - 17th.

2005, Dodger Stadium - 12th; Turner Field - 21st.

Oh, and Andruw Jones hit 92 homers in 2005 and 2006 combined...in a park with a well below-average park factor.

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