January 31, 2008

Ding-Dong! The Witch Is Dead...And Phil Watch

Johan Santana had more wins (13-6) against the Chicago White Sox than any other team in baseball.

He just dominated them. For some prospective, in 2005 - the year the Sox won 99 games and the World Series - Santana was 4-0 with an 0.92 ERA against them.


And the Mets handed over the bulk of their farm system (but not Martinez) to get him, sending four of the top seven prospects, according the Baseball America. It was volume over quality w/r/t the Twins for the most part.

Johan Santana is silly good. Yes.

But BRG's favorite sports columnist, Phil Rogers, compared him to Sandy Koufax and Bob Gibson today.
Crap. He couldn't just write a realistic, down-to-earth article analyzing the trade and its effects on both leagues. He had to do that.

Let's get started (it's a short one as Phil just regurgitates other media reports):

Because the 28-year-old Santana is taking his eye-popping fastball-changeup combination from the hitting-heavy AL to the pale and sickly NL, he becomes not just a good bet to win 20-plus games but to string together a bunch of seasons with an ERA below 2.00.

He wasn't traded to the Vinton School of the Blind and won't be facing a league of visually-impaired 8 year-olds, will he?

Phil. The NL is not good, meaning it is not as good as the AL in the relative sense.

A few notes. Santana will be 29 when the season starts, something that's absolutely relevant when factoring in a pitcher whose arm has logged over 900 innings the last four years and a pitcher that some scouts noticed diminished velocity, a hesitancy to throw his usual amount of sliders (to be fair, some didn't think it was an issue), has a history of minor shoulder problems and gave up a crapload of long balls (33) last year.

Again, Santana's silly good. But Koufax? Gibson? No.

And let's say a bunch of 'sub 2.00 ERA seasons' is four. Koufax didn't do it. Neither did Gibson. Is he going to cure cancer and end world hunger as well?

Koufax and Gibson pitched in a definitive pitcher's era; Santana in a ridiculous hitter's era, for various reasons.

JHC, control yourself.

Most had assumed that 19-year-old outfielder Fernando Martinez, the Mets' top prospect, would have to be in any deal for Santana. But Smith did the deal for 22-year-old outfielder Carlos Gomez, a speed-and-defense guy who should replace Torii Hunter; potential ace Deolis Guerra, who is only 18, and advanced pitching prospects Kevin Mulvey and Philip Humber.

'Most' is flat-out not true. If I gave a list of Mets prospects to my 6 year-old niece and asked who the Twins should get, she would probably say 'nawba un', but everybody in the know saw it as speculative speculativeness on speculative speculation and noted the Minaya didn't want to part with him.

When Johan gave a Tuesday deadline for a deal, Martinez went from 'hardly an option' to 'bring up his name and I will stab you'.

For a great recap of how all this unfolded, check out Buster Olney's article on the trade. For shits and giggles, compare the levels of writing between Buster and Phil. This is your national baseball columnist, Chicago. Consider yourself blessed.
Or something.


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