February 03, 2008

Phil Watch: "Say What You See, Gareth."

Upon first glance, Phil's offering today seemed pretty humdrum, just more of Phil being Phil, puking back up analysis that smarter minds did three days ago.

Shame on me for giving the benefit of the doubt.

With Santana's new contract, C.C. Sabathia is about 'ta git paaaid'.

While Sabathia says he hopes to stay, the reality is Cleveland hasn't ranked higher than 23rd in payroll since 2002 and already has signed Travis Hafner, Jake Westbrook, Grady Sizemore and Victor Martinez to deals worth a combined $131.7 million through 2012.

Phil, I know it's hard to remember seven years ago, but you might think back to 2001 when the Indians got old and got old fast. Shapiro took over from John Hart and declared rebuilding would be a new focus. And this is how he did it.

So of course the payroll since 2002 is going to be 'no higher than 23rd'. The players they got back in the furry of trades made back then recently became arbitration-eligible.

Let's look at Phil's payroll analysis:

Well, first - those four players' deals add up to $134.2 million, but that's neither here nor there.

Here are the year-by-year total breakdowns (via MLBcontracts.com):

08: $25.3M
09: $31.8M
10: $35.1M with a $7M club option for Victor Martinez (probably picked up)
11: $20.5M
12: $21.5M with a $8.5M club option for Grady Sizemore (probably picked up)

Hardly large commitments for three of their top four hitters in the lineup and their #3 starter.

For a more eye-opening breakdown of the Indians' payroll situation, check this out and tell me you wouldn't take that projection for your team.

By contrast, the White Sox owe four players in identical positional/contract situations (Konerko, Vazquez, Dye and Pierzynski) $121.5M over the next three years, not five and both teams have extraordinarily similar revenue streams.

Sure, Sabathia just became more expensive, but the Indians absolutely are in position to sign him.

Tubby had a great year last year, but those above-4 ERAs in his past necessitate another spectacular year this year to get $25M per.

The Mets move past Philadelphia to become a preseason favorite in the National League East and enter the discussion—alongside Colorado, Arizona and the Cubs—about the best team in their league. Minaya now is working to add free agent right-hander Kyle Lohse, who would leave only one opening in the rotation for a group including Oliver Perez, Orlando Hernandez and Pelfrey that made 66 starts last season.

Does that last sentence make any sense to anyone?

First, John Maine throws baseballs for the Mets. With Santana, Pedro Martinez, Maine, Perez and Pelfrey (that's five), Lohse would be signed for insurance against Pedro's arm falling off and Pelfrey needing more time.

(Some of the losers from the Santana deal) The Yankees—On one hand, it's admirable to see Brian Cashman convince Hank Steinbrenner to hang on to potential front-of-the-rotation guys Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy. But on the other, it's hard to see how they make up a gap on Boston, which is deeper at both the major- and minor-league levels and has won the World Series twice since the Yankees' last parade more than seven years ago.

Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada, Bobby Abreu, Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon and Jason Giambi are all at least 33 and there's no true No. 1 in a rotation headed by Chien-Ming Wang and Mike Mussina.

In all that is holy, how does this make the Yankees a loser?

How...what...who...I'm confused.

In the very recent past, Phil proved that he has a raging hard-on for prospects over proven talent.

So the Yankees should have traded:

Phillip Hughes, 21, rated the fourth-best prospect overall in 2007 and will be in the rotation.

Joba Chamberlain, 22, a guy with these numbers and expected to take the #2 spot this year.

and/or

Ian Kennedy, 23, a guy with these numbers and projected to fill the #3/#4 spot this year.

How would a Santana trade address the issue of making them younger, the crux of your whole argument here???!!!

JHC! Proofread your own article!

In nary a year, the Yankees rotation realistically could surpass the Red Sox rotation. Hughes, Chamberlain and Kennedy are younger, cheaper and, at the very minimum, equal to Matsusaka, Lester and Buchholz in talent and potential.

I better not ever hear Phil bitch about the Yankees out-spending everybody.


On other matters, I scored a reservation at French Laundry yesterday for April 1.

Hot Damn, we're excited.

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