Ding-Dong! The Witch Is Dead...And Phil Watch

Johan Santana had more wins (13-6) against the Chicago White Sox than any other team in baseball.

He just dominated them. For some prospective, in 2005 - the year the Sox won 99 games and the World Series - Santana was 4-0 with an 0.92 ERA against them.

No more.

And the Mets handed over the bulk of their farm system (but not Martinez) to get him, sending four of the top seven prospects, according the Baseball America. It was volume over quality w/r/t the Twins for the most part.

Johan Santana is silly good. Yes.

But BRG's favorite sports columnist, Phil Rogers, compared him to Sandy Koufax and Bob Gibson today.

Crap. He couldn't just write a realistic, down-to-earth article analyzing the trade and its effects on both leagues. He had to do that.

Let's get started (it's a short one as Phil just regurgitates other media reports):

Because the 28-year-old Santana is taking his eye-popping fastball-changeup combination from the hitting-heavy AL to the pale and sickly NL, he becomes not just a good bet to win 20-plus games but to string together a bunch of seasons with an ERA below 2.00.

He wasn't traded to the Vinton School of the Blind and won't be facing a league of visually-impaired 8 year-olds, will he?

Phil. The NL is not good, meaning it is not as good as the AL in the relative sense.

A few notes. Santana will be 29 when the season starts, something that's absolutely relevant when factoring in a pitcher whose arm has logged over 900 innings the last four years and a pitcher that some scouts noticed diminished velocity, a hesitancy to throw his usual amount of sliders (to be fair, some didn't think it was an issue), has a history of minor shoulder problems and gave up a crapload of long balls (33) last year.

Again, Santana's silly good. But Koufax? Gibson? No.

And let's say a bunch of 'sub 2.00 ERA seasons' is four. Koufax didn't do it. Neither did Gibson. Is he going to cure cancer and end world hunger as well?

Koufax and Gibson pitched in a definitive pitcher's era; Santana in a ridiculous hitter's era, for various reasons.

JHC, control yourself.

Most had assumed that 19-year-old outfielder Fernando Martinez, the Mets' top prospect, would have to be in any deal for Santana. But Smith did the deal for 22-year-old outfielder Carlos Gomez, a speed-and-defense guy who should replace Torii Hunter; potential ace Deolis Guerra, who is only 18, and advanced pitching prospects Kevin Mulvey and Philip Humber.

'Most' is flat-out not true. If I gave a list of Mets prospects to my 6 year-old niece and asked who the Twins should get, she would probably say 'nawba un', but everybody in the know saw it as speculative speculativeness on speculative speculation and noted the Minaya didn't want to part with him.

When Johan gave a Tuesday deadline for a deal, Martinez went from 'hardly an option' to 'bring up his name and I will stab you'.

For a great recap of how all this unfolded, check out Buster Olney's article on the trade. For shits and giggles, compare the levels of writing between Buster and Phil. This is your national baseball columnist, Chicago. Consider yourself blessed.

Or something.

Phil Watch: He Hates It When Statistics Get In The Way

In an otherwise pedestrian offering from Phil today, a few gems are to be had.

Why he spends the first half of the article analyzing the Reds' acquisition of Jeremy Affeldt is beyond me, especially with SoxFest this weekend and the fact he wrote Baseball America's top 10 prospects list just two weeks ago.

Well, Dusty Baker used to be the Cubs' manager. That's a link.

But let's see what he has to offer.

Ten years after his pro career began, Jeremy Affeldt finally had a breakout season in 2007. He made 75 appearances out of the bullpen for the Colorado Rockies and then pitched in seven of 11 postseason games for the National League champs.

Breakout season? Affeldt's ERA last year was 79th among MLB relievers with 40 or more innings pitched. His WHIP was 99th.

Yes, he made 75 appearances last year...for a total of 59 innings. Do you know what that means?

Pretty much a lefty specialist. Not quite a LOOGY (lefty, one-out guy) but certainly a guy brought in when a couple of lefty hitters are due up and is on a relatively short leash (or a GBIWACOLHADUAIOARSL).

For evidence of such things, look to Affeldt's aforementioned appearances in 7 of 11 postseason games. A grand total of 5.1 innings.

Just some things to mention next time Affeldt warrants an article.

On the whole, it has been a solid winter for Reds general manager Wayne Krivsky. He lured Baker out of the ESPN booth, then scored a major coup by signing free-agent closer Francisco Cordero, who was second in the NL with 44 saves for Milwaukee a year ago. But he also needed to add at least two proven arms behind his 1-2 combination of Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo.

Phil continues to want to have Dusty's children.

And the Reds gave Cordero the largest contract ever given to a closer. To him. With these numbers. And a career .309 BABIP, good for 143rd last year as an imperfect comparison.

Solid winter? How would it be solid if they didn't find starting pitching depth.

The only thing Krivsky accomplished this winter is something he didn't do, like giving away the farm - particularly Votto and Bailey - for Erik Bedard.

Affeldt, 28, was more or less guaranteed a spot after agreeing to a one-year, $3 million contract. The Reds' top scouts believe he has the stuff to succeed as a starter, remembering how he filled that role with some promise for Kansas City in 2003.

Again, a few clicks away on these internets debunks these sorts of 'promising' tags. In 2003, Affeldt started 18 times, going 6-5 with a 4.39 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP and a .320 BABIP.

For a frame of reference, Odalis Perez had a .320 BABIP last year, good for 163rd. By the end of July in 2003, Affeldt was moved to the bullpen.

I guess he did say 'some' promise. His arms didn't fall off. And he's not exactly praising the move. Or is he? Is he? I'm still a bit confused.

Phil then moves on to 'unfilled needs' around the league:

•Power hitter, Dodgers—Juan Pierre figures to be even less productive in left field than he was in center, but the four years left on his contract precluded GM Ned Colletti from adding some needed pop. Andruw Jones gives the lineup one hitter who had more than 20 home runs a year ago, but he had only 26 and is moving to a tougher park. Rookie third baseman Andy LaRoche gets a chance to make Nomar Garciaparra a utility player.

This is just lazy. Really. Just look it up. It's further evidence that Phil's reference books at his desk were last updated in 2001.

Per ESPN - park factor

In 2007, Dodger Stadium was the 13th most homer-friendly park in the majors. Turner Field was 19th.

2006, Dodger Stadium - 7th; Turner Field - 17th.

2005, Dodger Stadium - 12th; Turner Field - 21st.

Oh, and Andruw Jones hit 92 homers in 2005 and 2006 combined...in a park with a well below-average park factor.

Phil Watch: He Doesn't Watch Baseball. He Only Writes About It

Phil's back!

And apparently he stopped watching baseball in 2004.

In an effort to write something - anything - in a slow baseball news month, we are offered this little ditty about the Scott Rolen/Troy Glaus trade.

Advantage, Toronto Blue Jays.

On the surface, Scott Rolen and Troy Glaus are very similar players, with Glaus' numbers supporting his end of the argument.

He's 31, Rolen is 32. He hit .262 with 20 homers and on-base/slugging numbers of .366/.473 last season, while Rolen hit .265 with eight homers and an alarming .331/.398 combination. Their career highs show Glaus at .284-47-102 and Rolen at .314-34-124.

Similar? Well, they're both third basemen.

And Rolen will be 33 when the season starts. According to the law of diminishing baseball returns, kinda relevant.

Phil's beginning to quote OBP and SLG. That's a good sign. Maybe he'll apply these to a current Cubs shortstop that is rather brutal w/r/t such things.

BTW, wouldn't totals from the last three years be a better barometer, at least to lay a foundation, especially when the title of the article identifies Rolen as an 'elite player'?

Rolen's three-year averages: .274/.347/.452. That's an OPS of .799, good for 83rd in the league last year, just above Randy Winn.

Other Rolen three-year averages: 12 homers, 60 rbi, 28 dbls; numbers remarkably similar to the three year averages of...you guessed it...Randy Winn.

I may not know much in this life, but I know one thing. Randy Winn is not an elite player.

When labeling someone an elite player, how he performs in the last three years are, in fact, relevant, injuries or not.

Rolen is one of the best ballplayers in the major leagues and Glaus is a streaky hitter capable of carrying his team for a month every season. Rolen was a foundation player with his teams in Philadelphia and St. Louis; Glaus, who at the time faced major issues with his back, wasn't offered a chance to stay in Anaheim after 2004, when he reached free agency, and now Arizona and Toronto have traded him in a two-year stretch.

How does one mention Glaus' injury issues and not bring up Rolen's?

I'm an Angels fan. Glaus nearly singlehandedly won the 2002 World Series with numbers like these.

But now? Not so good. Never a good fielder. And quite juicy.

So he's kinda bad/kinda risky with potential upside.

Two of the last three years Rolen played in St. Louis were the definition of 'injury-plagued'. At one time, I was expecting leprosy to enter the picture.

Rolen as Foundation Player? So was Brady Anderson at one point and time.

He (Glaus) will be with his fourth team in five years, moving this time after a mention in the Mitchell report (receiving steroids through the mail in 2003-04), and is only two years away from free agency. Rolen, signed for three more years, provided the kind of stability that any franchise needs...

Rolen will retain his full no-trade clause and is owed $11M/year over the next three years.

With his performance over the last three years, he's, by even the most basic of definitions, kind of a risk.

And he's coming off major shoulder surgery. Not even a mention?

Rolen believes the surgically repaired left shoulder that was the center of many of his clashes with La Russa will be fine this season.

There it is.

But HE says it will be fine. Well fuck, let's play ball!!!

Rolen couldn't have been more engaging when he met with reporters in Toronto after the trade. His acquisition already had been a big hit with the Blue Jays' players, especially a pitching staff that should allow dozens fewer runs with the seven-time Gold Glove winner at third base.

Let's say 'dozens' is about five dozen. That's sixty runs a year saved by Rolen according to Phil.

And that's bullshit. A really good fielder, according to most experts, saved about 3-5 runs a month, totaling 18-30 a year.

Rolen has clashed with La Russa and Larry Bowa,both of whom have had their problems with other players, but receives ringing endorsements from two of the other managers he had in Philadelphia.

One thing I know. Assholes usually don't get along with other assholes. There's just too much assholishness getting in the way.

With Frank Thomas, David Eckstein and Rolen, the Blue Jays have upgraded three of the nine spots in their batting order the last two years.

And a lineup most apt to pull all their hamstrings and have their arms fall off on one play in unison.

I forgot Phil was a David Eckstein lover. This year could be fun.

And don't forget, Rolen, like Eckstein, are white.

Andruw Jones, a player with the same Gold Glove résumé as Rolen and three year averages far exceeding Rolen's just signed with the Dodgers for nearly the same annual dollars and one less contract year.

Andruw Jones? Not so white.

I am in no way calling Phil a racist. That would be irresponsible cherry-picking. I don't know him. Plus, I don't think he is from everything I've read.

But it does bring this to mind:

Phil Watch: Absolving Himself Of His Own Dippiness

Slow day for Phil today.

He meant to vote for seven (!) players on his ballot for the Hall of Fame but forgot to check Harold Baines' name, possibly leaving him dangerously close to permanently falling off the ballot.

But it didn't happen. He got 5.2% of the vote.

Whew!!

In early January, shortly after the deadline for voting, I realized that I had meant to vote for seven players but had voted for six. I omitted Baines through an oversight, not any change in believing him worthy of the honor.

This is subtle bullshit. Nothing about this 'omission' is mentioned in the Trib's article on January 6 that polled their writer's votes. Nothing. Not a word.

Completely disregarding his vote for seven players on this ballot and overlooking what seems to be revisionist history (a hope that the possible becomes plausible), check your fucking ballot! I will win no proofreading contests in this lifetime, but I will bet both of my nuts, I'd check that before 'hitting send'.

I'm not sure I could have looked Baines in the face, and I've known him for almost 20 years.

This is the kind of sportswriting that can only be determined as sloppy. Aging writers use this crap to substitute for true statistical analysis. They happened to be in the same room as a player and probably had a drink or two with them, so they allude to this, keeping it vague as to just how much they 'know' them, and apply it to buttress their forthcoming ridiculous argument.

Baines received 28 votes this time around, one less than a year ago, and the exact number needed to stay on the ballot. One fewer vote, and he would have been the new Lou Whitaker—a great player erased from the Hall ballot alongside the slightly better-than-average players who get one courtesy trip through the process.

Whoa, doggie! Lou Whitaker was never a 'great player'. He was a very good player. Very Good, that category Phil conveniently omitted between great and slightly better-than-average.

He's widely dismissed because he was one-dimensional as a designated hitter for the second half of his career, but he has enough hits to be on the radar. He endured endless knee surgeries and brutal workouts to stay on the field.

A mildly cogent argument could be made for Baines. This isn't it. Phil is adopting the Mike Downey argument that the sheer number of hits should be the only benchmark for the Hall.

Downey is also the guy who gave us this when justifies a couple of players:

A single no-brainer: Andre Dawson with his 2,774 hits and 438 home runs. (Joe DiMaggio had 2,214 and 361.)

A show-of-support vote: Alan Trammell, a super shortstop, a six-time All-Star, a World Series MVP, a class act. Tram, too, had more hits (2,365) than DiMaggio did.

Um, what? Let's forget for the moment that Joe DiMaggio missed three full seasons at the height of his career because of that little skirmish across the pond.

DiMaggio's 162 game averages: .325 avg, .398 OBP, 35 hrs and 143 fuckin' RBI.

I won't speak to the 'sacred hallowedness' of the Hall of Fame, but this isn't some truck stop, farm toy museum. Not everybody with $2 and receipt from your cigarette purchase should get in.

Back to Phil.

He (Baines) deserves the benefit of the doubt, in my opinion, because of a .324 batting average and .888 OPS (on-base plus slugging) in 31 postseason games for four teams, including White Sox appearances in 1983 and 2000 on both ends of his career.

Then put Tito Landrum in the Hall. In two World Series, he had a .920 OPS.

As a member of the Baseball Writers Association of America, I'm proud that the Hall of Fame entrusts us with the first level of voting on inductees. There are a lot of people who believe the process should be opened to others, especially broadcasters and statistical analysts. It's not a perfect process, certainly, but the onus isn't on the baseball writers to justify the system; it's on the Hall.

First, to be a member of the BBWAA, you have to get a job as a baseball writer at a somewhat regional newspaper and not die for ten years. This isn't the Supreme Court. Woody Paige is a member.

Second, BULLSHIT! The BBWAA does, indeed, justify the system by their sheer inaction on attempting to justify the system. To say they are without blame is ridiculous. They Are The Sole Voters, now that the Veteran's Committee has been marginalized.

And to see how much of a closed little cabal they are, check this out.

Now that Phil has supposedly exposed his ballot (Blyleven, Dawson, Gossage, Rice, Morris, Trammell), the search for the Shawon Dunston voter will diligently move forward.

Phil Watch: More Stupid Stupidness

Phil's back! With the Konerko to Angels rumor and a possible rebuttal to getting his ass handed to him for his last piece of violent diarrhea, it should be good.

I wonder what goodies will be offered today?

"While the White Sox paid an extremely high price for Nick Swisher, at least their short-sighted fans should be happy. His acquisition continues a winter in which Ken Williams has done more than almost any other general manager to improve his team when gauged simplistically."

Phil's mad but modestly capitulatory.

Liking the Swisher deal = myopia.

Ken Williams = active = myopia.

Me likes principles of logic.

"There are really two ways for rosters to improve: the ebb and flow of proven players and the development of young talent. The latter is the better way, but it is more art than business—an extremely subjective process to evaluate. The former, however, is easily studied."

Phil. It's not an either/or. And why exactly is the latter the better way? Recent history shows us that cobbling together retreads and castaways with potential upside in fact wins World Series championships. Blend in a few young'uns as ancillary support and poof!. You have a ring.

That's the real goal, right? Not some fantasy land where the only championships that count and are truly earned are the ones with only players that came through the system.

I wonder how Phil will justify this? (Please be stupid-ass, made-up, mathematical equations used by idiotic sportswriters devoid of original thought! Please! Please! Please!)

"For the purpose of identifying the most on-the-surface improvement around the major leagues, consider the core players—hitters projected to be regulars and pitchers who either start or work the last two innings of games—who have come and gone.

In this simple accounting, the Sox rate a plus-two, having added Swisher, Orlando Cabrera and Scott Linebrink while losing only Jon Garland. That puts them alongside Detroit (plus-three), Tampa Bay (plus-two), Toronto (plus-one) and Houston (plus-one) as the most improved teams in the majors."

WHOOPEE!!! I love, love, love it. As long as a player is 'proven' by Phil's standards, everybody is equal to everybody else. Using his system, it's funny he applauds the Tigers' aquisition of Miguel Cabrera, a team that completely gave up the farm for him. Funny...and not haha funny.

Does he address this?

"Detroit's plus-three comes from adding Miguel Cabrera, Edgar Renteria, Dontrelle Willis and Jones while losing only Sean Casey."

Holy Crap. This makes Mongo sad. Were sports editors part of the recent cutbacks at the Trib? In what world, this one or any theoretical one, is Sean Casey equal to Miguel Cabrera? Please tell me because a couple of my fantasy teams last year want to play in such a world.

"The 31st franchise

Here's a team you could put together from players who still don't have jobs.

Starting pitchers: Roger Clemens, Livan Hernandez, Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia, Jason Jennings, Kyle Lohse and Josh Fogg.

Relief pitchers: Jeremy Affeldt and Bob Wickman.

Catcher: Mike Piazza and Johnny Estrada.

First base: Sean Casey and Mike Sweeney.

Second base: Marcus Giles.

Shortstop: Neifi Perez.

Third base: Pedro Feliz.

Outfield: Mike Cameron, Corey Patterson, Sammy Sosa, Kenny Lofton, Emil Brown, Reggie Sanders, Brad Wilkerson, Shawn Green and Barry Bonds."

And that team would bad, like 2003 Detroit Tigers bad. In fact, they lose 120 games because over half the team will be injured by the third pitch of the first game of the year. They would need a farm system with oodles of young talent to fill in the gaps.

You know, the kind of talent you started talking about in your NUT GRAPH and mysteriously chose NOT to follow up on! Apparently, Phil's thinks it's better because Phil's brain told Phil it was.

And at this point, he continues to make his dippy argument about baseball's worst division using his dippy math to formulate a dippy conclusion, of which the Cabrera/Casey is only one of a vast tapestry filled with 'all things being equal' idiocy.

Update: Sometime during this season, Paul Konerko becomes a 10-5 player, meaning he has ten years of MLB service time and five years with the same team. BFD? No. Trade. Clause.

The Inaugural Phil Watch: Tracking The Silliness One Article At A Time

Phil's back! With the Konerko to Angels rumor and a possible rebuttal to getting his ass handed to him for his last piece of violent diarrhea, it should be good.

I wonder what goodies will be offered today?

"While the White Sox paid an extremely high price for Nick Swisher, at least their short-sighted fans should be happy. His acquisition continues a winter in which Ken Williams has done more than almost any other general manager to improve his team when gauged simplistically."

Phil's mad but modestly capitulatory.

Liking the Swisher deal = myopia.

Ken Williams = active = myopia.

Me likes principles of logic.

"There are really two ways for rosters to improve: the ebb and flow of proven players and the development of young talent. The latter is the better way, but it is more art than business—an extremely subjective process to evaluate. The former, however, is easily studied."

Phil. It's not an either/or. And why exactly is the latter the better way? Recent history shows us that cobbling together retreads and castaways with potential upside in fact wins World Series championships. Blend in a few young'uns as ancillary support and poof!. You have a ring.

That's the real goal, right? Not some fantasy land where the only championships that count and are truly earned are the ones with only players that came through the system.

I wonder how Phil will justify this? (Please be stupid-ass, made-up, mathematical equations used by idiotic sportswriters devoid of original thought! Please! Please! Please!)

"For the purpose of identifying the most on-the-surface improvement around the major leagues, consider the core players—hitters projected to be regulars and pitchers who either start or work the last two innings of games—who have come and gone.

In this simple accounting, the Sox rate a plus-two, having added Swisher, Orlando Cabrera and Scott Linebrink while losing only Jon Garland. That puts them alongside Detroit (plus-three), Tampa Bay (plus-two), Toronto (plus-one) and Houston (plus-one) as the most improved teams in the majors."

WHOOPEE!!! I love, love, love it. As long as a player is 'proven' by Phil's standards, everybody is equal to everybody else. Using his system, it's funny he applauds the Tigers' aquisition of Miguel Cabrera, a team that completely gave up the farm for him. Funny...and not haha funny.

Does he address this?

"Detroit's plus-three comes from adding Miguel Cabrera, Edgar Renteria, Dontrelle Willis and Jones while losing only Sean Casey."

Holy Crap. This makes Mongo sad. Were sports editors part of the recent cutbacks at the Trib? In what world, this one or any theoretical one, is Sean Casey equal to Miguel Cabrera? Please tell me because a couple of my fantasy teams last year want to play in such a world.

"The 31st franchise

Here's a team you could put together from players who still don't have jobs.

Starting pitchers: Roger Clemens, Livan Hernandez, Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia, Jason Jennings, Kyle Lohse and Josh Fogg.

Relief pitchers: Jeremy Affeldt and Bob Wickman.

Catcher: Mike Piazza and Johnny Estrada.

First base: Sean Casey and Mike Sweeney.

Second base: Marcus Giles.

Shortstop: Neifi Perez.

Third base: Pedro Feliz.

Outfield: Mike Cameron, Corey Patterson, Sammy Sosa, Kenny Lofton, Emil Brown, Reggie Sanders, Brad Wilkerson, Shawn Green and Barry Bonds."

And that team would bad, like 2003 Detroit Tigers bad. In fact, they lose 120 games because over half the team will be injured by the third pitch of the first game of the year. They would need a farm system with oodles of young talent to fill in the gaps.

You know, the kind of talent you started talking about in your NUT GRAPH and mysteriously chose NOT to follow up on! Apparently, Phil's thinks it's better because Phil's brain told Phil it was.

And at this point, he continues to make his dippy argument about baseball's worst division using his dippy math to formulate a dippy conclusion, of which the Cabrera/Casey is only one of a vast tapestry filled with 'all things being equal' idiocy.

Update: Sometime during this season, Paul Konerko becomes a 10-5 player, meaning he has ten years of MLB service time and five years with the same team. BFD? No. Trade. Clause.