May 25, 2008

Phil Watch: You Too Can Be Courageously Courageous

Welcome back, folks. We're back to our usual Phil schedule. Aside from a half-hearted effort posted on Thursday about instant replay in baseball, nothing of relevance showed up this week.
Sunday's three articles opens with the flagship Phil column spending 800 words on the courageously courageous Jon Lester who threw a no-hitter last week.

Now here's the thing. On April 29, Lester threw eight innings of one-hit ball. But on May 19, he threw nine innings of no-hit ball.

Eight innings? Ppppppffffttt! Pussy. And what are you doing giving up a hit?

Nine innings? He's my hero! And he had cancer. He's my courageous hero!

Good for Lester (and Doug Davis). Bad for people who read platitude-spewing sportswriters that tend to milk this stuff to the last drop. So let's just ignore that and move on.

Let's get started.

The 24-year-old Lester's no-hitter came only 77 games after one by 23-year-old Clay Buchholz on Sept. 1 at Fenway Park. And on the night after Lester's effort, 23-year-old Justin Masterson held Kansas City to one run over 61/3 innings in his second big-league start.

If my team had this collection of pitchers, I might feel almost ready to be mildly okay with my team's prospects. I wouldn't feel like it's some sort of arsenal of Anton Chigurhs ready to destroy everything in their path, though.
Just because ESPN belches out their names every four seconds doesn't mean they get better with each mention.

Beckett: Good pitcher - probably in the top six or so in the AL. Anton Chigurh in the playoffs. Shown to be a bit tweaky in the past and the Red Sox should feel lucky to get 30 starts out of him in each of the last two years. He never hit that mark in any of his four years in Florida.

Matsusaka: 8-0, 2.40 ERA this year. But his WHIP is a pedestrian 1.32 and shows a correction is on its way. The Red Sox wised up and started pulling him earlier this year given his record of tiring late last year and hitters catching onto him (4.96 ERA when seeing the lineup for the third time). His 42% ground ball rate is terrible and he's once again the recipient of superlative run support. Things will even out here.

Lester: Still young with potential. Control was a worry in the minors (3.78 BB/9) and that has so far carried over to the majors (4.49 bb/9). Gave up 8 hits/9 in the minors and giving up almost 9 hits/9 in the majors. A no-hitter doesn't make a pitcher great (see Joe Cowley, Bud Smith, Anibel Sanchez and Jose Jimenez). Probably a #3 at best with issues. He's Ted Lilly.

Buchholz: Ridiculously good in the minors and ridiculously average to bad in the majors. He also threw a no-hitter but didn't have cancer so that didn't count. Once again, still young with oodles of upside but curiously having control problems in the majors (4.15 BB/9).

Masterson: C'mon. Good pedigree but has pitched a grand total of 18 games above Single-A ball. In those 18 games in Double-A, he had a 4.31 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP. Not exactly mowing them down. He's a funky delivery guy with a modicum of upside who could be a decent #5 with Matsusaka-like run support.

Simply put, if the Red Sox didn't have a lineup filled with Anton Chigurhs, their pitching would be a major concern given their youth. If this staff had an average lineup (read: The Angels) backing them up, it would be average at best. Funny what wins allow people to gloss over.

Masterson stands 6 feet 6 inches and reminds some of Dennis Eckersley with his delivery. He pounds the strike zone with hard sinkers. He often is compared to Derek Lowe.

Throwin' around a lot of names there. Let's see a track record outside of two starts before we anoint the young man. See Johnny Cueto.

Not that they really seem to need him, but Bartolo Colon was impressive in his 2008 debut. He held Kansas City to two runs in five innings Wednesday night, mostly working in the low 90s but hitting 96 a couple of times. He's in the rotation to stay, which could mean Buchholz will go to the bullpen when he returns from the disabled list in a week or two. Masterson also could be used in the bullpen at some point.

Hey. Phil got through a Bartolo Colon sentence and didn't mention that the White Sox passed on him in the off-season. Good for him.

BTW, I watched that game and Colon had has fastball and that was it. His breaking stuff was borderline terrible. As an Angels fan, I beg for the Red Sox to insert Colon into the rotation full-time. Please put him on the post-season roster and please start him against the Angels.

Please.

The Indians' visit to Chicago last week seemed like a dangerous stretch for the first-place White Sox. But by sweeping Cleveland, they not only maintained their lead in the American League Central but dealt the Indians a blow that could be remembered in September if they have joined Detroit in having a disappointing season.

After ranking sixth in the AL with 811 runs a year ago, Cleveland had fallen to 12th — on a pace to score only 645 — this season.


Okay. Here's the thing. Baseball teams are not a collection of robots in uniforms. They are actual people.

With an outfield rotation of Dellucci, Gutierrez, Francisco and Sizemore and an infield of Cabrera, Blake, Peralta and Garko, this is not a good offensive team. They were good last year because a few players hit out of their gourd (see Casey Blake).

Actual players not hitting actual baseballs in actual games may be the final analysis for the Indians at the end of the season, not being swept by the Sox in May.

Moving to Phil's Whispers. He has his ear to the ground for us.

Manager Joe Girardi's plans to keep Joba Chamberlain in the Yankees' bullpen all season have come crashing down, making it appear Co-chairman Hank Steinbrenner or general manager Brian Cashman overruled him. Girardi was right to value Chamberlain's set-up role, but it appears he will be a starter by the All-Star break.

What's this 'appear' crap? Who with a rational baseball mind gives a shit about appearances?

Girardi's hand was forced by the fact that Hughes has been bad and injured and Kennedy's been bad and bad. He already ripped Rasner from the minors. What else can Girardi do? Have Giambi don the golden thong and take the bump?

It's a numbers game. Someone has to take the ball every fifth day.

With summer still around the corner, it's too early to read much into league stats. But 2008 does look like a down year for hitters. The AL slugging percentage entering the weekend was .397. It hasn't been .400 or less since 1992.

WWWWWHHHHHHHAAAAAAAATTTTTTTTTTT??????!!!!!!!???????!!!!!!

It's still too early to read that much into league stats?

Phil's been superficially using and manipulating numbers without context all freakin' season!

For whatever reason, Arizona hitters are killers at home (third in the NL at .296 entering Saturday) and pussycats on the road (16th, .217).

It's over

The remaining five months of baseball will be played, but Arizona's 20-8 April took any suspense out of what figured to be a very good race in the National League West.
This is what Phil wrote on May 4. Over. 28 games into the season.

And probably more prescient, the D'Backs are hitting .245 in May overall, good for 25th in the league. What does that say? Arizona had a hot April. That. Is. All. Season-to-date numbers for the D'backs are specious at best given the April they had.

It's called a filtered split, Phil. Use it. It helps.

Moving Dontrelle Willis to the bullpen is a sign of how little margin for error the Tigers believe they have after their awful start. Manager Jim Leyland says Willis needs only some "fine-tuning," but it will be interesting to see how long it will be before he starts.

Or it means that Willis still has an issue of finding that thing called the strike zone, even in his rehab starts.

Power Rankings for Morons tomorrow. I'm done with predicting Phil but where's that Jacque Jones column?

C'mon. You are deliberately denying the BRE office staff oodles of fun.

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